# Can On-Line Lottery Formulas Actually Win? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 27, 2024, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154 "2024-05-27T20:07:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/21 "2024-05-28T18:58:53Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > There is one system for lotteries that have winning ties split the proceeds. Avoid picking numbers that others pick. That doesn’t improve your odds of winning; it improves your odds of a higher payout conditional on your winning. So it increases your (nonetheless still negative) expected value. > > Dates are popular to pick. So choose higher random numbers, ones above 12. In 6-number lotteries, a common selection is a married couple and their only child’s ages and days of the month of their birthdays, so try not to select three numbers lower than 32. Also, pretty much every conceivable “pattern” of numbers is chosen by somebody. I remember a California Lotto ad where one of the Apple Computer founders said that he would play “1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 - it’s just as likely as any other set of numbers.” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/22 "2024-05-28T19:12:37Z")
At some point roulette tables in Vegas started showing the last 50(?) results. One person would look at it and say “5 had come up three times. I am betting that” someone else “41 hasn’t come up at all. It’s due”. ---
**Author:** ![john\_b\_2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@john\_b\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/john_b_2)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/23 "2024-05-28T19:21:53Z")
Thanks, Dallas Jones. The Keno games where I live are similar, if not identical to what you described. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/24 "2024-05-28T19:26:31Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > If someone had a formula that worked, they wouldn’t post it. > They would _use_ it. See also the Casino Montreal keno scandal. A guy noticed a flaw in their procedures, and exploited it. > **[Montreal Casino | Keno scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Casino#Keno_scandal)** > > In April 1994, Daniel Corriveau won $600,000 CAD playing keno. He picked 19 of the 20 winning numbers three times in a row. Corriveau claims he used a computer to discern a pattern in the sequence of numbers, based on chaos theory. However, it was later found that the sequence was easy to predict because the casino was using an inadequate electronic pseudorandom number generator. In fact, the keno machine was reset every morning with the same seed number, resulting in the same sequence of numbers... ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/25 "2024-05-28T19:29:56Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Also, pretty much every conceivable “pattern” of numbers is chosen by somebody. I remember a California Lotto ad where one of the Apple Computer founders said that he would play “1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 - it’s just as likely as any other set of numbers.” At one point, I was using 1, 4, 9, 16, 25 and 36. The first six squares, in other words. ---
**Author:** ![Running\_with\_Scissors](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a183cd/32.png) [@Running\_with\_Scissors](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Running_with_Scissors)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/26 "2024-05-28T19:52:27Z")
[This is probably as close as you can get](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cUUfMeOijg). Cloudflare uses an array of lava lamps on a video feed as a seed for a random number generator. Except possibly at the quantum level, it can be considered truly random. ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2024, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/27 "2024-05-28T21:47:08Z")
The idea for a secure pseudo-random number generator is, you do not just seed it once (like in that Keno story): you keep feeding it entropy from various sources: lava lamp, thermal noise, radioactive decay, beam splitter, whatever is truly unpredictable. That is how your computer operating system is able to supply random numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slow_moving_vehicle/32/291_2.png) [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slow_Moving_Vehicle)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/28 "2024-05-29T14:13:40Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > At some point roulette tables in Vegas started showing the last 50(?) results. One person would look at it and say “5 had come up three times. I am betting that” someone else “41 hasn’t come up at all. It’s due” I once worked landscaping for a summer while in college. The other, older guys would play the lottery religiously. I still remember hearing one of them saying “4 is hot. That 4 be hitting a lot.” Which is part of the reason I’ve never played the lottery - it’s a tax on the mathematically ignorant. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/29 "2024-05-29T14:21:14Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > At some point roulette tables in Vegas started showing the last 50(?) results. One person would look at it and say “5 had come up three times. I am betting that” someone else “41 hasn’t come up at all. It’s due”. The screens I see all show roughly 25 past spins. The dealers say it has really increased both the number of players and the size of their bets, because everybody thinks they can game the game somehow by seeing the history over a very short period of time. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/30 "2024-05-29T14:25:00Z")
> [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](#): > > Which is part of the reason I’ve never played the lottery - it’s a tax on the mathematically ignorant. Yeah. It’s so stupid to take the risk of winning$1,000,000,000 jackpot from a $2 investment. ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/31 "2024-05-29T14:32:28Z")
As I recall from the Montreal Keno story, the problem was the system was rebooted every morning. Keno in many other locales (Vegas? Atlantic City?) used the same system, but rarely rebooted it so the repeating srquences were rare and less noticeable. Choosing “1,2,3,4,5,6” (or the squares) is probably a good choice since most people would not choose an obviously apparently non-random sequence. My observation would be that humans try too hard to be random… Back when I would buy lottery tickets and pick numbers, I tried to be random. I realized that I avoided two numbers in sequence, two numbers in the same decade, etc. The winning numbers freqently had 2 or 3 numbers either in sequence, or the same decade. Several decades were often not represented. So human versions of “random” tend to be too biased towards “scattered”. Even if some system (like ping-pong balls) is slightly less than truly random, the bias is so small and the odds so tremendous that it would not be cost-effective to try to exploit it. OTOH, if a Keno sequence does repeat, the odds get much better. As I would say, though… “your chance of winning goes up tremedously when you buy that first ticket.” But also “lotteries are a stupidity tax. The dumber you are, the more you pay. I only pay $6 a week.” ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/32 "2024-05-29T14:39:07Z")
I have a system that is guaranteed to double your chances of winning a lottery. I will give you detailed instructions on using this system for the low low cost of only $100. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/33 "2024-05-29T15:02:52Z")
> [@md-2000](#): > > Choosing “1,2,3,4,5,6” (or the squares) is probably a good choice since most people would not choose an obviously apparently non-random sequence I’m certain I’ve read this is one of the most common, if not most common, lottery tickets played. Which makes complete sense to me. There is always a group of people who will play patterns. Humans like patterns. ---
**Author:** ![Schnitte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/schnitte/32/9033_2.png) [@Schnitte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Schnitte)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/34 "2024-05-29T16:08:35Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Yeah. It’s so stupid to take the risk of winning$1,000,000,000 jackpot from a $2 investment. Which illustrates a valid point: it can be mathematically perfectly rational to play the lottery even with a negative expected return, if your utility function of money is non-linear. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/35 "2024-05-29T16:44:16Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m certain I’ve read this is one of the most common, if not most common, lottery tickets played. Which makes complete sense to me. There is always a group of people who will play patterns. Humans like patterns. Concur ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/36 "2024-05-29T17:58:14Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > > [@md-2000](#): > > > > Choosing “1,2,3,4,5,6” (or the squares) is probably a good choice since most people would not choose an obviously apparently non-random sequence > > I’m certain I’ve read this is one of the most common, if not most common, lottery tickets played. Which makes complete sense to me. There is always a group of people who will play patterns. Humans like patterns. I guess it depends how much “stupidity tax” one must pay…? I knew a group that won the big lottery many years ago. a dozen people, won the $3.3M jackpot. However, so did about 10 other winners. (I never asked what numbers they’d picked - usually more than 1 winner was unusual) As a result, they each walked away with about $30,000. A nice tidy bundle, but not enough to quit work… ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/37 "2024-05-29T18:05:47Z")
> [@md-2000](#): > > Choosing “1,2,3,4,5,6” (or the squares) is probably a good choice If 10-15 people out of the millions who buy lottery tickets agree with you, you will cut your maximum winnings by roughly 90%. Pick at random, and you don’t have any pre-existing group selecting the same numbers as you. ---
**Author:** ![Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slow_moving_vehicle/32/291_2.png) [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slow_Moving_Vehicle)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/38 "2024-05-29T18:34:20Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > > [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](#): > > > > Which is part of the reason I’ve never played the lottery - it’s a tax on the mathematically ignorant. > > Yeah. It’s so stupid to take the risk of winning$1,000,000,000 jackpot from a $2 investment Fair point, and it’s one my wife makes on the rare occasion that she buys a ticket. But for me, the odds of actually winning one of those huge Mega Millions prizes are so close to zero as to be functionally identical. Plus, and this might be overnice in my scruples, I voted against the lottery when it was on the ballot in Georgia, and I’d feel a little hypocritical playing it now. ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/39 "2024-05-29T18:34:50Z")
> [@md-2000](#): > > As I recall from the Montreal Keno story, the problem was the system was rebooted every morning. Keno in many other locales (Vegas? Atlantic City?) used the same system, but rarely rebooted it so the repeating srquences were rare and less noticeable. Doesn’t matter how often I reboot my computer, it will not repeat a sequence of random numbers. If theirs did, that is not an excusable mistake in the implementation. In fact, I assume their code would have been audited, so the whole thing is pretty fishy. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2024, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154/40 "2024-05-29T18:46:28Z")
The existence of “lottery formulas” as per the OP’s premise is based on the human tendency to see patterns where there aren’t any. This is so deeply ingrained, in fact, that it can result in a phenomenon called pareidolia, which can be audio or visual. Audio pareidolia, for example, is a phenomenon where you think you hear voices or songs in what is actually the white noise of a fan. The reality is that examining past winning lottery numbers will definitely yield a pattern if you work at it hard enough. But that pattern has absolutely **zero** predictive value, unless the particular lottery system is genuinely flawed. But due to people being gullible, and inclined to believe in systematic patterns, lottery-prediction scams continue to thrive. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-on-line-lottery-formulas-actually-win/1002154.md?page=3)