I’m a fan of renewable energy. I love driving near the Pincher Creek wind farm - I think it’s beautiful. Clean, modern energy. Yahoo. I wish everything we have could be powered by wind and solar and unicorn tears.
Unfortunately, I live in the real world. As a skeptic and an economic conservative, I demand actual plans that lead to reasonable outcomes before I’ll give people my money to ‘invest’.
And this is where the left goes wrong. In their zeal to get away from the dreaded oil, they’ll buy into every bloody scheme cooked up by a charlatan looking to bilk the taxpayers. They think that all you have to do is sign a bill that promises to ‘invest’ more money in research, and magically the future will arrive and we’ll get rid of that pesky oil and coal.
But throwing money around willy-nilly does not solve problems. If anything, it creates waste and the establishment of new entrenched special interests that block further reforms and make the problem worse.
For example, let’s look at biofuels. They were all the rage a decade ago. The left was marching in lockstep to demand more ‘investment’ in ethanol production. Lots of us raised the alarm that ethanol wasn’t all that it was cracked up to be, and that there was really nothing on the horizon that you could ‘invest’ in that would make it a great source of energy.
But by this time, the smart boys at the big agriculture companies realized that congress was about to rain soup on them so they went into their best lobbying mode and starting extolling the virtues of corn ethanol. Since they were the only big game in town capable of producing ethanol in large quanties, they were listened to. And the left, the guys who are supposed to be skeptical of big business and lobbying, happily trumpeted and helped to sell every piece of crap ‘report’ they were handed, because they were told what they wanted to hear.
The end result - billions of dollars in subsidies diverted to big businesses. Food crops diverted to ethanol production - which turned out to be a net energy sink and made the problem worse. But now that ethanol’s out there, it’s hard to get rid of it. Now that these companies have organized their activities and business plans around subsidies, it’s hard to kill them without causing more economic havoc. So now there’s yet another piggie sucking on the government’s teat, making it less able to deal with all the other problems it needs to deal with. Well done, boys.
I don’t want a repeat of that. I want to proceed methodically. If you want a billion dollars from the taxpayers to ‘invest’, show me the business plan. Explain exactly where that money will go, what research will be funded, why that type of research needs more funding, what the risks are, what the potential benefits are, what the timelines are. I’ll accept plenty of risk - I understand how basic research works. But I want it quantified.
I want that because if the alternative energy crowd cannot come up with those plans, then I have to believe they have no freaking clue and they’re just throwing darts at a board hoping something will stick. And that’s no way to run energy policy. All you’ll do is create distortions, reward the wrong people, and pour money into the big special interests who will use it to squash innovation elsewhere. You’ll do more harm than good.
Presidents have been promising an end to dependence on foreign oil since Nixon. Every one of them ‘invested’ in the solution. None of it has amounted to anything. If you want to play that old tape again, you’d better be able to tell me how it’s going to be different this time.
The fact is that there is already a large amount of R&D going on, driven by the market. Business people aren’t stupid. They can see the opportunities in cheap alternative energy. Show me that the amount they are currently investing is inadequate, and explain why and where you would add more money. Stop handwaving and speaking in generalities.
I’ll give T Boone Pickens some credit here - he actually has a plan. It’s a lousy plan and it won’t work, but at least it’s a plan. Bring more of those. Maybe one of them will make sense. THEN we can talk about investing in it.
As for just taxing people and using the money to pay for current alternative energy - that’s the kind of answer people give when they are innumerate and incable of or unwilling to examine the consequences. As I pointed out in another thread, if the U.S. wanted to replace its energy with solar PV today, it would cost somewhere on the order of an additional 2.8 to 4 trillion dollars a YEAR. And I hate to break it to you, but you’re not getting that money out of the rich - because they don’t have it. You could take ALL their income, and you couldn’t pay for half of that. Then they’d be broke or gone, and you’d have nothing except a big smoking hole in the budget where their tax revenue used to be.
Wind is cheaper, but there are a limited number of places where you can get it cost-effectively. There aren’t enough good wind locations to provide more than 5-10% of America’s power. After that, wind starts to go up dramatically in cost.
Solar Thermal is more expensive than wind, and cheaper than solar PV. Maybe we could move to that, and it would ‘only’ cost an extra trillion and a half per year. Except that solar PV is also sensitive to location, and that leaves out all the areas of the country where solar PV doesn’t work.
Wind is already being built rapidly in areas of highest efficiency. Solar thermal plants are also being constructed. But combined they’ll never provide more than 20% of America’s power needs. Trying to force them past that will bankrupt you.
Finally, let’s say you managed to pass a law that added a 20% VAT to everything in the country, and you used that money to build out all these current renewable projects. You would be locking the U.S. energy infrastructure into today’s technology. You might be crowding out investment in newer energy sources. High taxes could kill entrepreneurship and prevent the radical breakthroughs that we really need to crack this nut.
If you kill economic growth, you will make it harder to deal with the consequences of global warming - which will happen anyway, because if America drives its energy costs through the roof it will raise the price of manufactured products and drive down the price of oil, and countries like China will happily exploit both changes to their benefit. And they aren’t as energy efficient as the U.S., so every product that moves from the U.S. to China will help to increase global fossil fuel consumption.
It’s not conservatives’ fault that energy is a really, really difficult problem that currently has no easy answers. You can put your head in the sand and just repeat words like ‘investment’ as much as you like, and you won’t make the problem go away. You can throw as much money around as you want, and you won’t make a solution magically appear. It’s time to get real, get hard-headed, and stop blaming conservatives and calling them names because YOU don’t like the kinds of energy sources we have to live with.