# Can someone explain to me why what we are doing isn't overreacting **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 26, 2020, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297 "2020-03-26T02:09:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/181 "2020-03-30T20:31:31Z")
I just don’t understand this: China has reportedly no new cases of the virus in Wuhan, the epicenter of this pandemic. For the 6th day in a row. Meanwhile the virus rages on in the US, and we hear estimates of up to 200,000 deaths possible by end of the year. If China was able to control the pandemic to ~3500 deaths we should be able to, also. Unless the Chinese government is tampering with data on truly colossal scale and their death toll is an order of magnitude higher than they are admitting. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/182 "2020-03-30T20:37:17Z")
> [@mandala](#): > > I just don’t understand this: China has reportedly no new cases of the virus in Wuhan, the epicenter of this pandemic. For the 6th day in a row. Meanwhile the virus rages on in the US, and we hear estimates of up to 200,000 deaths possible by end of the year. If China was able to control the pandemic to ~3500 deaths we should be able to, also. Unless the Chinese government is tampering with data on truly colossal scale and their death toll is an order of magnitude higher than they are admitting. China is lying through their teeth. > **[Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure](https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html)** > > Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535. > [@](#): > > A city source added that, based on the aggregation of funeral and cremation numbers, authorities likely know the real number and are keeping it under wraps. > > “Every funeral home reports data on cremations directly to the authorities twice daily,” the source said. “This means that each funeral home only knows how many cremations it has conducted, but not the situation at the other funeral homes.” > > The city began lifting its lockdown on Saturday after two months of mandatory shutdown, with a complete lift of restrictions set for April 8. Funeral homes in Wuhan have been handing out the cremated remains to families every day, but rumors began circulating after one funeral home received two shipments of 5,000 urns over the course of two days, according to photos reported by Chinese media outlet Caixin, which were later censored. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/183 "2020-03-31T11:40:43Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > China is lying through their teeth. > > [https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html](https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html) I think this is correct. I do think they’re having _some_ success against COVID - you can’t bullshit a major medical crisis in which thousands of patients are piling up on the floor. So they’re at least not in that phase of the outbreak anymore, but they’re bullshitting the numbers, and they have been. There’s no way only 3,000 patients died - it was probably 10 times that number. And yes, they’re probably having smaller outbreaks in other cities they’re not reporting, and there are undoubtedly resurgent cases in Wuhan. Fuck the CCP and their lies. China needs to be held to account for allowing dangerous wet markets that led to this outbreak in the first place, despite years of warnings that this would be the result. And they need to pay twice for covering up the outbreak and deliberately withholding the severity and nature of the crisis. We can start by having the US and our allied governments forcing companies to pull their supply chain until they change. ETA: Mods, I don’t mean for the last part to be a political rant per se; it’s intended to be a response (a spirited one) to madsircool’s comment about the Chinese government’s response. If it crosses lines, it’s not intentional ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/184 "2020-03-31T11:52:50Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > Oh, and I never modelled-in ‘20% of your ICU staff had to go into isolation because they caught the disease off their patients, and now you only have 160 beds’ You also omitted “a bunch of people came in each day with injuries and heart attacks and whatnot and they died because there were no beds for them”. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/185 "2020-04-01T20:03:35Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > You also omitted “a bunch of people came in each day with injuries and heart attacks and whatnot and they died because there were no beds for them”. Heart attacks and serious whatnots, yes. But injuries? I’d expect isolation to be a factor. With stay-at-homes, have vehicle casualties dropped? Is family abuse stable or rising? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/186 "2020-04-01T20:16:21Z")
server dupe ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/187 "2020-04-01T20:41:12Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > Heart attacks and serious whatnots, yes. But injuries? I’d expect isolation to be a factor. With stay-at-homes, have vehicle casualties dropped? Is family abuse stable or rising? There is evidence domestic violence is on the rise. Vehicle mishaps will go down, but not by as much as you might hope. A lot of people still have to go to work, and the number of people seriously injured in car accidents is a truly gigantic amount. The USA typically has about 2500 fatalities a month, and between one and two million serious injuries, depending whose definition you use. Even sliced in half, the amount of time and money expended attending to car accident victims is truly enormous. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/188 "2020-04-01T20:45:18Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > Heart attacks and serious whatnots, yes. But injuries? I’d expect isolation to be a factor. With stay-at-homes, have vehicle casualties dropped? Is family abuse stable or rising? Injuries in the home are a [huge factor](https://journals.lww.com/ajnonline/Fulltext/2018/01000/Preventing_Falls_and_Fall_Related_Injuries_at_Home.27.aspx). > [@](#): > > Falls are a high-impact, high-cost health concern for older adults. They are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal accidents for those ages 65 and older. In a sample of almost 150,000 older adults, investigators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that almost 30% fell at least once in the prior 12 months, resulting in 7 million fall injuries that required medical attention or at least one day of restricted activity. Women in older age groups were at highest risk for both falls and injuries. Additionally, falls can increase the likelihood of being admitted to a long-term care facility. And the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html)has these bullet points. [ul] [li]One out of five falls causes a serious injury such as broken bones or a head injury,[/li][li] Each year, 3 million older people are treated in emergency departments for fall injuries.[/li][li] Over 800,000 patients a year are hospitalized because of a fall injury, most often because of a head injury or hip fracture.[/li][li] Each year at least 300,000 older people are hospitalized for hip fractures.[/li][li] More than 95% of hip fractures are caused by falling, usually by falling sideways.[/li][li] Falls are the most common cause of traumatic brain injuries (TBI).[/li][li] In 2015, the total medical costs for falls totaled more than $50 billion. Medicare and Medicaid shouldered 75% of these costs.[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/189 "2020-04-07T19:36:09Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > Do we get to revisit it when he’s wrong about the fatalistic ‘seven to ten days’ stuff? [You were saying?](https://infection2020.com) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/190 "2020-04-07T20:44:43Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > Heart attacks and serious whatnots, yes. But injuries? I’d expect isolation to be a factor. With stay-at-homes, have vehicle casualties dropped? Is family abuse stable or rising? Vehicle casualties have dropped so much that at least two major insurers are refunding part of their customers’ premiums for April and May of this year. Or is it March and April? Two months, in any case. On the other hand, accidents in the home are no doubt on the upswing, given that that is where most people are these days. There has been an uptick in domestic violence. And, in my area, at least one [murder-suicide](https://www.nwitimes.com/news/mans-worries-about-covid-19-prompts-murder-suicide-police-say/article_b5bd6541-e257-5174-a06e-0146d86ecb83.html#tracking-source=home-trending) due to fears of the virus. ---
**Author:** ![KumarSanuBestEver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/7c8e57/32.png) [@KumarSanuBestEver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KumarSanuBestEver)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/191 "2020-04-07T20:53:42Z")
Taking into account herd immunity at some point and asymptomatic undetected patients, let us say covid19 could kill 0.1-0.5% of humanity overall. Let us say all gets done in 3-6 months. Let’s say average lifespan is 80 yrs. So, every year abt 100/80=1.25% people die anyways. 1.25% every year meaning abt 0.6% every 6 months and 0.3% every 3 months. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/192 "2020-04-07T21:17:15Z")
> [@KumarSanuBestEver](#): > > Taking into account herd immunity at some point and asymptomatic undetected patients, let us say covid19 could kill 0.1-0.5% of humanity overall. Let us say all gets done in 3-6 months. > > Let’s say average lifespan is 80 yrs. So, every year abt 100/80=1.25% people die anyways. 1.25% every year meaning abt 0.6% every 6 months and 0.3% every 3 months. [“I guess what I would want to say is to look on the bright side.”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-8FB6k8jik) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![KumarSanuBestEver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/7c8e57/32.png) [@KumarSanuBestEver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KumarSanuBestEver)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/193 "2020-04-07T21:28:40Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > [“I guess what I would want to say is to look on the bright side.”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-8FB6k8jik) > > Stranger Hehe…to go further on the comparison in previous post: Out of the 1.25% who die every year, most are old and sick. With covid-19 also, most people dying are old and with co-morbidities. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Latimera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/latimera/32/497_2.png) [@Latimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latimera)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/194 "2020-04-07T21:32:50Z")
> [@KumarSanuBestEver](#): > > Taking into account herd immunity at some point and asymptomatic undetected patients, let us say covid19 could kill 0.1-0.5% of humanity overall. Let us say all gets done in 3-6 months. > > Let’s say average lifespan is 80 yrs. So, every year abt 100/80=1.25% people die anyways. 1.25% every year meaning abt 0.6% every 6 months and 0.3% every 3 months. Not exactly sure what point you are making… ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/195 "2020-04-07T21:46:58Z")
> [@KumarSanuBestEver](#): > > Taking into account herd immunity at some point and asymptomatic undetected patients, let us say covid19 could kill 0.1-0.5% of humanity overall. Let us say all gets done in 3-6 months. > > Let’s say average lifespan is 80 yrs. So, every year abt 100/80=1.25% people die anyways. 1.25% every year meaning abt 0.6% every 6 months and 0.3% every 3 months. The actual death rate worldwide is about 0.75% of the population per year. Doubling the worldwide deathrate is not an insignificant thing - and not all the people who die would be the old and the sick. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/196 "2020-04-07T22:55:44Z")
> [@KumarSanuBestEver](#): > > Hehe…to go further on the comparison in previous post: > Out of the 1.25% who die every year, most are old and sick. With covid-19 also, most people dying are old and with co-morbidities. 😛 This is first of all [not really true](https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) (see Rates by Age for both Hospitalization and Death for New York City, which is more reflective of the world population than Italy with its elderly population or China which almost certainly underreported numbers); even though hospitalizations goes up with age and deaths disproportionately affect those 65 and older, there are still a significant number of hospitalizations all the way down to 18, and significant number of deaths down to 45. So this isn’t just an “old persons’ disease”, and even many of the older people who are dying do not appear to have comorbidities or underlying risk factors. So we can’t just write the fatalities off as “people who only had a few years left to life anyway,” even if you think that is a good rationale for doing nothing. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/197 "2020-04-08T03:16:52Z")
When a critical number of “essential” workers are sick, who’ll be left to whine about over-reaction? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/198 "2020-04-08T07:57:09Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Seven to ten days from now, when the virus is everywhere and emergency rooms and ICU wards are packed to capacity, and physicians and nurses (and receptionists, and nurses aids, and EMTs, and everyone else who is on the front lines of the response) start suffering en masse, the question isn’t going to be “Are we overreacting?”; it is going to be, “Given everything we saw from China, and Italy, and Spain, why didn’t we react quickly enough?” At this point there is no excuse other than blithe ignorance of what is happening right now in nations that didn’t respond to the warnings of the epidemiological community to argue that the current measures to just stay at home and stop mingling with people as if this is a mild outbreak of cold or some disease that only affects old people who are going to die soon anyway. There is no “debate”; there are no “both sides make reasonable arguments”; and there is no fact-based analysis that doesn’t involve the difference between a few hundred thousand deaths and millions of avoidable deaths because of a lack of hospital capacity. > > Stranger I guess it’s now been ‘seven to ten days’ or more. Just wondering if those days did indeed play out about like you thought they would. ---
**Author:** ![KumarSanuBestEver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/7c8e57/32.png) [@KumarSanuBestEver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KumarSanuBestEver)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/199 "2020-04-08T12:40:52Z")
One more life saving act by hydroxychloroquine [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6BIB5Rv-Hs) ---
**Author:** ![DrFidelius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drfidelius/32/3447_2.png) [@DrFidelius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrFidelius)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/200 "2020-04-08T12:48:34Z")
Bullshit reported. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=11)