# Can someone explain to me why what we are doing isn't overreacting **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 26, 2020, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297 "2020-03-26T02:09:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/41 "2020-03-26T11:34:27Z")
> [@Harrington](#): > > 30 million deaths. Is anyone projecting that? That’s frightening as fuck. If every person in America got the virus and the death rate was as high as 4%, that’s 13+ million people, and even that’s a frightening shit-ton. If millions to tens of millions require hospitalization, deaths, including non-virus deaths, will be higher because of an overwhelmed health care system, but 30 million seems like a wildly high number. That’s 9% of our population. Even if that’s just a worst case, but possible, scenario, I don’t think there can be an overreaction. It’s a made up number, but I was making it up for the world, not the US. However, at least one set of projections I saw for Texas suggested we’d have over 400,000 deaths if we practiced mere “social distancing”. Even if 50% of those were “non-productive”, that’s 200,000 people out of the workforce. We are talking about as many deaths just in Texas as all of the US suffered during WW2. You can’t handwave away the economic impact of losing that many people–both the loss of productive capacity and the loss of demand. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/42 "2020-03-26T11:42:12Z")
This country spends whatever it takes, no holds barred, on national security. Is this virus not a national security threat? This is comparable to WWII in some ways. They had rationing, restrictions, and industries switching from consumer goods to war manufacturing. The country survived that and came out of it stronger than before. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/43 "2020-03-26T11:49:54Z")
Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at King’s College London, debunks the argument about choosing between the economy and the lockdown. This is a good, clear, common-sense article: [Don’t believe the myth that we must sacrifice lives to save the economy](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/there-is-no-trade-off-between-the-economy-and-health) > [@](#): > > … So at the most basic level, this argument ignores what the evidence says. But perhaps more importantly, the idea that the way to minimise the economic damage is to remove the restrictions before they’ve done their job – definitively suppressing the spread of the virus – is a terrible one. > > Does anyone believe that, whatever the government said, we could get back to “normal”, or something close to it, any time soon? If we were all allowed to return to work, many or most of us would, quite rationally, choose not to, for fear of catching the virus. And if, as the scientists predict, the result of loosening the restrictions was an acceleration in infections, then pretty soon many firms would simply stop functioning, as workers became sick, or had to stay at home to look after family members. > > More broadly, restoring the economy to normal requires, above all, confidence. Amid continuing uncertainty both about their own finances and the wider economy, households won’t spend and businesses won’t invest. And that simply isn’t going to happen until the spread of the diseases has been contained. ---
**Author:** ![Isosleepy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/isosleepy/32/479_2.png) [@Isosleepy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isosleepy)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/44 "2020-03-26T13:51:47Z")
Here’s a thought experiment: a bag of 100 M&Ms. 4 of them will kill you. Eat one. I have a gun to your head: EAT ONE! But wait! I have a _second_ bag of 100 M&Ms. only one of those will kill you. You still have to pick one and eat it, but what is it worth to you to switch bags? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/45 "2020-03-26T13:54:27Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > What kind of person talks of other people as tho they were inanimate objects who’s only purpose is to serve? A utilitarian. I am middle aged with several comorbidities and no children. If I caught the virus and needed a ventilator, but there was another patient of the same age who had children and no comorbidities, I would expect doctors to triage and prioritize the other patient. The other patient has a higher survival rate and children, so they should get priority. Its called triage and its happening all over due to the virus. Resources are finite. As another example, when I am elderly if I am looking at going to a nursing home and blowing through my life savings to sit in a bed for a year then die, or die early and leave an inheritance to nieces and nephews, I pick the latter option. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/46 "2020-03-26T14:01:21Z")
> [@Francis\_Vaughan](#): > > The death rate relative to age is also going to be skewed by the overwhelming of medical facilities. The numbers where mortality roughly doubles with each decade of life assume that ICU care is available, that that those that are more aged are more likely to die. Once the system is overloaded the chance of dying increases rapidly at lower ages, simply because the ICU care that made it possible to survive has gone. People in their 50’s are already on ventilators. Not really. Need for hospital care and need for ICU care among hospitalized patients follows the same pattern as death rate, so while an overwhelmed or primitive health system would show significantly increased deaths in all age groups, the pattern of much higher mortality in the elderly and much lower in younger groups would remain unchanged. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/47 "2020-03-26T14:07:47Z")
Part of the problem is that yes, everyone will know people who died of the virus… but the people who have died and will continue to die from the overreaction aren’t nearly as visible. And a lot of other folks who die from the overreaction will be misattributed as being due to the virus. Like, those overstrained medical services: A lot of that strain is due to people panicking. Most people will develop some sort of respiratory disease over the course of a winter, but most of those diseases aren’t cornonavirus. And even of those who do get genuine coronavirus, most will need no medical care at all. But in an environment of panic, people who don’t need medical care at all will rush to the ER, and buy up masks and sanitizer that they’re not using properly but that the hospitals actually need, and do other counterproductive things. I’m not saying that we shouldn’t react at all. But if what we were doing was the right amount of reaction, why wasn’t the CDC recommending it? Could it be because they’ve spent decades studying problems like this in extensive detail, and determined that it would do more harm than good? ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/48 "2020-03-26T14:16:22Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > A utilitarian. > > I am middle aged with several comorbidities and no children. If I caught the virus and needed a ventilator, but there was another patient of the same age who had children and no comorbidities, I would expect doctors to triage and prioritize the other patient. The other patient has a higher survival rate and children, so they should get priority. Its called triage and its happening all over due to the virus. > > Resources are finite. As another example, when I am elderly if I am looking at going to a nursing home and blowing through my life savings to sit in a bed for a year then die, or die early and leave an inheritance to nieces and nephews, I pick the latter option. But having a million or more members of the workforce, and another million “old people” die is NOT good for the whole, it’s NOT just a series of personal tragedies. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/49 "2020-03-26T14:19:25Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > Whatever the correct fatality numbers are, aren’t the current numbers the rate with proper medical treatment? Might not the rate increase dramatically if we allow the healthcare system to become overwhelmed? > > Won’t overwhelming the healthcare system also increase deaths from other causes? > > Even if we look at it from a purely economic viewpoint, is it possible that the economic costs from letting it spread unchecked might be higher than the costs of what we’re currently doing? Yes, this is exactly right. Just look at the case in Italy. They got hit earlier and harder than most other places, before we realized exactly how serious this thing could be, and they got overwhelmed. Their death rate is closer to 10%, not the world average of 4%, the hoped-for 2%, or the optimistic 0.5%\*. The faster the cases arrive, the higher the death toll will be, even if in the end, the number of people infected is virtually the same. This is the whole point of the “Flatten the curve” movement. \*And we need to keep pointing out that, yes, even under the most optimistic assumptions that get the rate down to 0.5%, that’s still 5-10 times more deadly than typical influenza. So all those people trying to brush this off as “just another flu” are still being complete idiots, under our _best possible assumptions_. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/50 "2020-03-26T14:23:57Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > You keep making this point about “people past their productive years.” Because fuck them, right? Nothing more than withered husks, those people. I mean, I could see throwing six, maybe seven hundred bucks toward keeping Grandpa upright out of sentimental value, but $4 million??? That’s a full .0001% of the annual U.S. federal budget!!! I was willing to let the comment pass in the OP, but since he’s said it a second time, I have to take issue with it. In the ten years since I retired, I’ve (with my wife): -Worked on the 2010 Census effort -Worked the entire ten years delivering Meals on Wheels -Developed and implemented a backpack weekend lunch program for at-risk elementary school children in our neighborhood (at our expense) -Volunteered at a Restore in our city (Habitat for Humanity, for the unfamiliar) -Supported many charities locally and nationally -Recently volunteered to work on a Habitat build in New Mexico. Regrettably, these projects have been cancelled for now, but we hope to be able to reengage when this is all over. -Donated untold amounts of clothing to homeless shelters, and a large amount of items to Goodwill. I would ask **Wesley Clark** to enlighten me as to what he considers “productive”, and also as to what he himself has done for humanity in the last ten years. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/51 "2020-03-26T14:24:15Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > A utilitarian. > > I am middle aged with several comorbidities and no children. If I caught the virus and needed a ventilator, but there was another patient of the same age who had children and no comorbidities, I would expect doctors to triage and prioritize the other patient. The other patient has a higher survival rate and children, so they should get priority. Its called triage and its happening all over due to the virus. . How about when the problem becomes four middle aged men who need the same ventilator? This disease could easily triple the number of hospitalizations required this year. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/52 "2020-03-26T14:24:34Z")
How are you going to let those 25 million people die? Do we all agree that if someone is dying of coronavirus we just put them in a room somewhere to choke on their own mucus so we don’t have to watch? In order for this not to be an overreaction we all need to agree that the health care system is just not going to try to save these people. If it does try, it will get overwhelmed. Is that a decision you’re willing to make? ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/53 "2020-03-26T14:32:18Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > Not really. Need for hospital care and need for ICU care among hospitalized patients follows the same pattern as death rate, so while an overwhelmed or primitive health system would show significantly increased deaths in all age groups, the pattern of much higher mortality in the elderly and much lower in younger groups would remain unchanged. I’m curious about the rates in each age groups that tend to require ICU care, but survive because of it. Right now we are focussed on the fraction in each age group that die despite best care. But once the system saturates the death will start to come from the former group as well. In a worst case scenario they will dominate. Yes, the relative rates stay much the same as the system overloads, but in all age groups it gets worse, potentially quite a bit worse. Eventually, as the system saturates and goes into massive overload one may find that the death rate for the very elderly stabilises - at close to 100%. Then the relative death rates will start to close. :eek: I would be interesting to know how many people in their 70’s, 80’s and 90’s who are diagnosed avoid hospitalisation, and how many of those need intensive care. It the country has 100,000 ICU/ventilator beds and staff capable of driving them, and it sees 1,000,000 people with need for that care, 900,000 people die. The relative death rates between the age groups collapses because people in the older age groups can only die once. Perhaps I’m being overly pessimistic. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/54 "2020-03-26T14:56:53Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Resources are finite. As another example, when I am elderly if I am looking at going to a nursing home and blowing through my life savings to sit in a bed for a year then die, or die early and leave an inheritance to nieces and nephews, I pick the latter option. Everybody says that when they are middle-aged. Yet the number of people who do that when they are very old is vanishingly small. Why do you think that is? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/55 "2020-03-26T15:05:07Z")
> [@Francis\_Vaughan](#): > > I would be interesting to know how many people in their 70’s, 80’s and 90’s who are diagnosed avoid hospitalisation, and how many of those need intensive care. It the country has 100,000 ICU/ventilator beds and staff capable of driving them, and it sees 1,000,000 people with need for that care, 900,000 people die. The relative death rates between the age groups collapses because people in the older age groups can only die once. I’ve posted this vox article elsewhere: > **[The Covid-19 risks for different age groups, explained](https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age)** > > Different age cohorts have different vulnerabilities to Covid-19, but nobody’s risk is zero. It’s not complete but it does discuss available stats on the % who require hospitalization and ICU by age. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/56 "2020-03-26T15:39:06Z")
Page 5 of the famous report which made the UK reverse their herd immunity strategy has estimates for all of those numbers. > **[Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)** > > 721.33 KB Incidentally it seems to me that it’s the sick elderly who are least affected by a collapse of the health care infrastructure, because once they require mechanical ventilation they have a 60-80% mortality rate in any case. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/57 "2020-03-26T15:51:36Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > Page 5 of the famous report which made the UK reverse their herd immunity strategy has estimates for all of those numbers. > > [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) > > Incidentally it seems to me that it’s the sick elderly who are least affected by a collapse of the health care infrastructure, because once they require mechanical ventilation they have a 60-80% mortality rate in any case. I think the single most important line from that page is this: > [@](#): > > We calculate bed demand numbers assuming a total duration of stay in hospital of 8 days if critical care is not required and 16 days (with 10 days in ICU) if critical care is required. Prior to social distancing, the number of cases was doubling about every 4 days. If, even in the best of circumstances, it takes 8 days of hospital care for people to recover, it becomes pretty obvious that we’re going to lose this race. 16 days is right out. This isn’t the hard math guys, it’s right there. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/58 "2020-03-26T16:19:13Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > I think the single most important line from that page is this: > > Prior to social distancing, the number of cases was doubling about every 4 days. If, even in the best of circumstances, it takes 8 days of hospital care for people to recover, it becomes pretty obvious that we’re going to lose this race. 16 days is right out. > > This isn’t the hard math guys, it’s right there. In the best of circumstances, which is the large majority of circumstances in every age group according the report, it takes 0 days of hospital care for people to recover. More importantly, 8 days of hospital care is not 8 days of ICU care. Perhaps we should be focusing on construction and staffing of huge field hospitals where patients can receive basic treatment such as supplemental oxygen and medication, as opposed to ICU beds and ventilators which are much lower yield. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/59 "2020-03-26T16:32:02Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > A utilitarian. > > I am middle aged with several comorbidities and no children. If I caught the virus and needed a ventilator, but there was another patient of the same age who had children and no comorbidities, I would expect doctors to triage and prioritize the other patient. The other patient has a higher survival rate and children, so they should get priority. Its called triage and its happening all over due to the virus. > > Resources are finite. As another example, when I am elderly if I am looking at going to a nursing home and blowing through my life savings to sit in a bed for a year then die, or die early and leave an inheritance to nieces and nephews, I pick the latter option. The part you’re missing is that if the medical system becomes completely overwhelmed, it won’t be a choice between you and another patient the same age with kids and no comorbidities. You’ll already be dead; instead, it will be a choice among five or six adults in their 40s and 50s, all of whom have kids and responsibilities and an excellent chance of survival IF they are the one picked to get the ventilator, but most of whom will be “triaged away” and die simply because six people and one ventilator is crappy math. (Meanwhile, your twenty-something nephew in otherwise superb health shows up with appendicitis, and the hospital has to say "sorry, we don’t have anybody to look at you. If you’re still alive, come back next month.) ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/60 "2020-03-26T16:38:06Z")
Also, Jesus, how do we make those calls? I know some teachers that are literally saving the lives and futures of their students but have no children of their own, and I know parents who beat the shit out of their kids even after we call the cops about it. Who can say who deserves to live and who decides to die? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=4)