# Can someone explain to me why what we are doing isn't overreacting **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 26, 2020, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297 "2020-03-26T02:09:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![kayT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayt/32/3633_2.png) [@kayT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/81 "2020-03-26T18:49:54Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Unfortunately, for many, the “middle ground” seems to be: > > “Why don’t we just let a bunch of people I don’t know die, so I can go about my regular business and not suffer financially?” > > That’s not going to happen. It’s magical thinking. How on earth can you consider that the middle ground? ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/82 "2020-03-26T18:56:12Z")
> [@kayT](#): > > How on earth can you consider that the middle ground? What do you consider middle ground? Half-assed social distancing doesn’t seem to help much at all–it’s too contagious. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/83 "2020-03-26T19:27:24Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > What do you consider middle ground? > > Half-assed social distancing doesn’t seem to help much at all–it’s too contagious. Then don’t do it half-assed. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/84 "2020-03-26T19:28:39Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > This, and all the similar arguments, is tantamount to saying in 1939, “fuck it, the Axis powers are on a roll and a bunch of us are going to die if we try to fight them, so let’s just hand them the keys and let them do their thing.” Actually, it is quite the opposite. Many said, “I might die having to protect the lifestyle my family and friends are enjoying here in this country, but I’ll take my chances on that rather than just sitting idly by and waiting for things to collapse.” ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/85 "2020-03-26T19:44:08Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > It’s not only fatalistic, it is very cynical, stupid, and lazy. “People will be so sad to lose their jobs that they will committ suicide! What about those people! We should all be willing to risk our lives and quality of life so those noble souls won’t fling themselves off of a bridge!” > > How about we keep people from flinging themselves off of a bridge by making poverty dignified? Guarantee food and shelter and (at least) mental health care so that poverty doesn’t have be the worst thing in the world. Suicide doesn’t have to be an inevitable outcome of an economic downtown. _We just allow it to be because our society is a cruel one._ Money is also a fake thing; we made it up. We can easily redefine it and in fact do that on a daily basis anyway via the stock market, interest rates, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/86 "2020-03-26T19:54:04Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m sure I’ll get a lot of hostility for this but hear me out. > > Back when the death rate was considered to be 2-4%, that is a pretty high number. We’re looking at worst case scenario, 60-70% of the human race gets the infection and 2-4% die, that means up to 200 million dead. > > A huge number and sheltering in place makes a lot of sense. > > But isn’t newer research showing the death rate is closer to 0.5%, possibly even lower? If so, then global death rates would be closer to 25 million. Still a huge number, but about 60 million die each year and most of those 25 million are people who are not far from death anyway. > > I think this point is serious because some diseases main and harm young people for life. The spanish flu killed people in their primes due to a cytokine storm. Other infections like smallpox or malaria infect children and either end their lives, or disable them for life. But the coronavirus seems to mostly kill people who have lived their productive years. > > Obviously, there are good reasons to take all these precautions. Governments all over the world of a wide range of government types and ideologies are taking this virus seriously and listening to educated experts who say to shelter in place, reduce contact, etc. So obviously, its a very serious issue. > > I guess I’m starting to get confused as to why a virus with a 0.5% mortality rating is this big of a deal that we are looking at endless trillions . The mortality rate isn’t independent of other factors. The mortality rate can be kept low if the spread of the infection is kept low and medical care resources aren’t overwhelmed. So, the less we stick to preventative measures, the higher the number of people will be infected, and the higher the number of people that will require medical care. Once the health care resources are overwhelmed, the mortality rate will increase, perhaps dramatically. And then you’re looking at a higher mortality rate applies to a higher spread of infection. ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/87 "2020-03-26T19:58:34Z")
Not sure if this has been linked, but Washington Post has a good series of animations that show the value of social distancing: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/) A little effort now will keep the healthcare system from getting overwhelmed. With every day we use precautions, we buy ourselves more time to prepare and hopefully cure the disease. Now my question about all this is how do we prevent it from being the new normal? Why aren’t there pandemics like this more often? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/88 "2020-03-26T20:31:50Z")
> [@control-z](#): > > Why aren’t there pandemics like this more often? That’s actually a really excellent question because epidemiologists have been saying that we are overdue for a global pandemic for decades, particularly with global travel and trade connecting to remote areas of the world like never in history, and while we’ve eradicated _Variola_ (smallpox) and were well on our way to eliminating the _poliovirus_, influenza is endemic in the human population, and our systematic use of broad-spectrum antibiotics in industrial meat production has and continues to cause the evolution of antibiotic-resistant pathogenic bacteria. The only real answer is that a pathogen that is really effective at spreading has to achieve a balance of being virulent enough to reproduce rapidly but delay onset of symptoms such that carriers will distribute it globally before it is recognized, which is essentially the métier of SARS-CoV-2. This is very likely not the last serious pandemic of our lifetime, or even the decade. We need to have better global surveillance systems in place to recognize and report outbreaks independent of national governments with their own agendas and particular interests, and a “war council” of virologists, microbiologists, and epidemiologists who can provide independent analysis and unbiased recommendations which can forestall this kind of outbreak. SARS-CoV-2 is somewhat unique in how rapidly it spreads before the carrier begins to show symptoms (if they do at all) but there were warning signs and we could have moved more effectively to limit the rate of spread as well as have testing available to see who is infected or immunized and who is still at risk for contagion. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/89 "2020-03-26T21:02:29Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > A utilitarian. > > I am middle aged with several comorbidities and no children. If I caught the virus and needed a ventilator, but there was another patient of the same age who had children and no comorbidities, I would expect doctors to triage and prioritize the other patient. The other patient has a higher survival rate and children, so they should get priority. Its called triage and its happening all over due to the virus. > > Resources are finite. As another example, when I am elderly if I am looking at going to a nursing home and blowing through my life savings to sit in a bed for a year then die, or die early and leave an inheritance to nieces and nephews, I pick the latter option. If you’re now talking about ventilators and life-saving measures instead of the economy and the reasoning behind preventing people at risk from getting sick, you’ve changed the terms of the OP. **Isosleepy** asked clear back in post #4 for your source for the .5% mortality rate. Did I miss your answer, or didn’t you provide one? In any case, the current stats don’t bear out the drop in numbers. Even if they did, .5% would still be 5 times the mortality rate of the flu, and NOT just for the elderly. And you do realize, don’t you, that if you’re over 40, your fatality rate is not even close to zero even without comorbidities, right? IF in what must seem to you like the distant future, you’re given a year to live in a nursing home and decide to commit suicide, that’s up to you. You don’t get to decide that for other people in the current situation, people who may well be very productive AND who have adult kids and other loved ones who very much need them around. I’m fortunate enough to have kids and siblings who’d be devastated if I were to die now, at age 63. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/90 "2020-03-26T21:13:52Z")
> [@kayT](#): > > How on earth can you consider that the middle ground? I don’t. I said “many consider this to be middle ground” To be specific, many in the media, primarily Fox News talking heads, as well as many politicians are basically saying “let those old people that I don’t know die” ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/91 "2020-03-26T21:16:48Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > This country spends whatever it takes, no holds barred, on national security. Is this virus not a national security threat? Federal leadership seems to consider this threat a political issue, not national security. What interests are served by vastly weakening the nation? ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/92 "2020-03-26T21:24:32Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > With the amount of undiagnosed cases considered and the relatively low numbers coming out of china I will be surprised if the death rate exceeds .1%. I think strong measures you be used in the first wave as to not overwhelm hospitals but after that sheltering should be left up to individuals. This whole thing is a politicians dream. They all get to showcase their leadership skills with inflated numbers so when lower numbers come in they look like heroes inspite of the fact the world economy is being destroyed. Surely you jest. This is NOT a politician’s dream. In any scenario, the economy is going to take a huge hit, and even Trump recognizes people tend to blame or credit politicians for the economy. This is particularly true if governors get ahead of a pandemic, and people irrationally blame them for overreacting by shutting down businesses when look, not that many people got sick (because the shutdowns worked)! Why do you think Trump and Congress were so eager to pass this huge stimulus bill? Why do you think Trump keeps bucking scientists, including his top advisors, by saying we should ease up on the restrictions? And you do recognize that a second wave would be no less dangerous than the first, right? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/93 "2020-03-26T21:32:51Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Resources are finite. Which is why it is important to flatten the curve to make sure those limited resources can be used most effectively and save the most lives. Has any of the responses in this thread explained to you, in a way you can understand, why social distancing and quarantines aren’t an over-reaction? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/94 "2020-03-26T21:48:38Z")
As I mentioned elsewhere: I’m supposed to die so multi-billionaires can stay rich? Fuck. That. Shit. I await elderly GOP pols and pundits leading by example. Over fifty? Cyanide is nifty. Over-reacting? Exponential growh curves start shallow and quickly go steep. We ain’t seen nothing yet and we’re unprepared for what we have today let alone next week. Actions provoke reactions. I doubt mass deaths will be accepted calmly so don’t be surprised by popular reactions unto insurrection. Has our criminally negligent national leadership planned for fierce reactions? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/95 "2020-03-26T21:54:38Z")
> [@kayT](#): > > Did I say give up? Did the OP? no. There is middle ground here. I am so goddamn tired of one extreme or the other in politics, in pandemics, in this whole country. I am done trying to communicate with people shouting from one end or the other, at each other. Can none of you read any more? When you use a weasel word like “triage”, you really need to define what you mean by that, because otherwise, as communication goes, it’s a fail. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/96 "2020-03-26T21:55:36Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > Maybe you could share where you are getting your 0.5% figure? Even South Korea is above 1.0% now. I have not heard 0.5% anywhere. If you have something, please post it. > > As far as sheltering in place goes, here are some statistics: > March 10 - San Francisco 17 cases, NYC 32 > March 24 - San Francisco 152 cases, NYC 14,776 > > Now NYC has more people in SF, may be denser, but that’s still a wildly different outcome. We are getting wildly different outcomes from locale to locale and it DOES matter how things are handled. > **[Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine](https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/)** > > The total number of cases and the total number of deaths from COVID-19 outbreak data was drawn down (scraped) from Worldometers. > [@](#): > > Iceland is presenting many interesting pointers for estimating the CFR. Iceland has tested a higher proportion of people than any other country (9,768 individuals), equivalent to 26,762 per million inhabitants the highest in the world (as a comparison, South Korea has teated 6,343 individuals). > > The results of screenings have suggested 0.5% are infected; the true figure is likely higher due to asymptomatic and as a result of many not seeking testing: estimates suggest the real number infected is 1%. Iceland is currently reporting two deaths in 737 patients, CFR. 0.27%; if 1% of the population (364,000) is infected then the corresponding IFR would be 0.05%. However, they have limited infections in the elderly as their test and quarantine measures have seemingly shielded this group, and the deaths will lag by about two weeks after the infections. Iceland’s higher rates of testing, the smaller population. and their ability to ascertain all those with Sars-CoV-2 means they will likely provide an accurate estimate of the CFR and the IFR. Current data from Iceland suggests the IFR is somewhere between 0.05% and 0.14%. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/97 "2020-03-26T22:04:51Z")
Going back to the OP, “what we are doing” is certainly open to interpretation and varies by geography and other factors. One expert’s prudent reaction is another person’s overreach. Schools closing? Not great, but no one wants to risk health for a few weeks of education. The school year can be extended later, once it can be done more safely. Not every child has Internet access and some get their best meal of the day in school programs. But there are many ways to learn at home. I’m sure there is some help, but one imagines the media would offer more educational stuff than they have. Gyms closing? Not great, health has many facets. But there are many ways to stay in shape without equipment or with a few items. Grocery stores asking people to stay apart? Fine with me. I think this could be done elsewhere, but if non-essential services close a few weeks why put employees at risk? Have people gone too far? In one sense, health is important and a moderate sacrifice is not much to ask. There are things I would not have done, but I am not an expert on infectious disease. Closing dog parks since people have been seen getting too close? Maybe, I wouldn’t have done it myself. Not letting people into police stations due to risks? The police deserve a safe working environment, but maintaining distance suffices in other essential workplaces. I don’t know enough about their concerns to make a reasonable judgement. Not unreasonable to be prudent for a couple weeks until more information is available. What specific action does the OP consider possibly excessive? One place started charging $30 for hand wipes here! ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/98 "2020-03-26T22:18:30Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > [Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates | The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine](https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/) None of what you’ve quoted says what Iceland’s mortality rate is going to be once the cases have resolved. In looking at resolved cases (cases in which the final outcome, recovery or death, is known), I’m not aware of any country where this rate is as low at 0.5% of cases. An _infection_ rate as low as one percent of the population is possible in countries that don’t have a lot of links with the outside world in the first place, and that in addition have imposed social distancing and isolation early in the timeline. Both appear to be true in Iceland, but neither are true in New York or Florida, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/99 "2020-03-26T22:20:10Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > This, and all the similar arguments, is tantamount to saying in 1939, “fuck it, the Axis powers are on a roll and a bunch of us are going to die if we try to fight them, so let’s just hand them the keys and let them do their thing.” No its not. Its more like debating if trying to conquer the entire nation of Afghanistan is worth it to stop a few hundred Al Qaeda fighters. Its a valid question. > [@Hamlet](#): > > I feel bad for **kayT** and others who seemingly give up when things get tough, and imagine the complete collapse of civilization because people can’t contribute to the economy for a couple fucking months. I’m very glad my parents, and my parents parents, and hopefully my kids, are all made of stronger stuff. I willingly accept your disapproval. Nonetheless, society needs to balance both its care for the old and its nurturing of the young. If globally the world is set behind by many years due to the economic collapse, that will cause ripples that will be felt for several generation. Less funding for education, a slower transition to renewable energy, less wealth for universal health care, less money for R&D. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/100 "2020-03-26T22:23:44Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > What specific action does the OP consider possibly excessive? Its not a specific action, its more about wondering what the long term consequences will be. If the disease turns out to be highly deadly, and the global economy bounces back in 3 years that is one thing. If it turns out the disease isn’t as deadly as people feared and the global economy takes over a decade to bounce back, that is another. Right now we don’t know whats going to happen, which makes it harder to decide and lean towards prudence. But as I said, if the global economy loses many trillions in wealth, that doesn’t just mean that jeff bezos sees his net worth drop from 130 billion down to 80 billion. It also means less money to invent cures for cancer, to build roads, to invest in education, to transfer to renewable energy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=6)