# Can someone explain to me why what we are doing isn't overreacting **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 26, 2020, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297 "2020-03-26T02:09:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/101 "2020-03-26T22:24:56Z")
[40-something year-old Uber driver dies after transporting passenger with COVID-19](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/an-uber-driver-has-reportedly-died-from-the-coronavirus/) I’m 40-something. I don’t want to die. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/102 "2020-03-26T22:26:20Z")
> [@slash2k](#): > > None of what you’ve quoted says what Iceland’s mortality rate is going to be once the cases have resolved. In looking at resolved cases (cases in which the final outcome, recovery or death, is known), I’m not aware of any country where this rate is as low at 0.5% of cases. > > An _infection_ rate as low as one percent of the population is possible in countries that don’t have a lot of links with the outside world in the first place, and that in addition have imposed social distancing and isolation early in the timeline. Both appear to be true in Iceland, but neither are true in New York or Florida, for example. They did claim that Icelands smaller population and their ability to test a larger % of their total population means they may get a more accurate estimate of CFR and IFR, and it is showing potentially the IFR is much lower than we’ve been fearing. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/103 "2020-03-26T22:51:41Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Its not a specific action, its more about wondering what the long term consequences will be. If the disease turns out to be highly deadly, and the global economy bounces back in 3 years that is one thing. If it turns out the disease isn’t as deadly as people feared and the global economy takes over a decade to bounce back, that is another. Right now we don’t know whats going to happen, which makes it harder to decide and lean towards prudence. > > But as I said, if the global economy loses many trillions in wealth, that doesn’t just mean that jeff bezos sees his net worth drop from 130 billion down to 80 billion. It also means less money to invent cures for cancer, to build roads, to invest in education, to transfer to renewable energy. But you’re assuming that people will have the same mindset and set of priorities after this blows over than they had before. Maybe if this shutdown continues long enough, people will realize that 90% of the consumer goods are crap anyway and what’s really important are those things/experiences that make us feel connected to ourselves and others. Good food, good art, good health. Maybe instead of wasting so much on the military, people will see the importance of supporting medical research and universal healthcare. There might be a whole paradigm shift heading our way. I think we should use this period to not only buy us more time to figure out how to deal with the virus, but to effect structural changes that will benefit both us and future generations. Capitalists want us to get back to work? OK, we’ll do that when businesses are required to provide paid sick leave. And open Medicare up to everyone, ffs. Without these things in place, we shouldn’t get out of our pajamas. Is this a pipe dream? Maybe. But this is as good a time as any to renegotiate the social contract. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/104 "2020-03-26T23:05:28Z")
This is from the highly respected Imperial College team: [Coronavirus pandemic could have caused 40 million deaths if left unchecked](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196496/coronavirus-pandemic-could-have-caused-40/) Actually, though, it couldn’t have be left unchecked. Most people are not going to go to restaurants and plays and baseball games while hearing day after day of prominent people who got a new disease, or died from it, while emergency rooms and ICU’s are overloaded. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/105 "2020-03-26T23:42:42Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > They did claim that Icelands smaller population and their ability to test a larger % of their total population means they may get a more accurate estimate of CFR and IFR, and it is showing potentially the IFR is much lower than we’ve been fearing. They also note that Iceland has been able (so far) to keep it out of their elderly population, due at least in part to their quarantine measures. (I daresay it is also due to lifestyle issues; I have not heard of many elderly Icelanders going on Caribbean cruises, e.g.) We already know this disease has a death rate proportionately much higher among older people, so I’m not sure Iceland’s experience will be similar to those of countries where the disease does get into nursing homes and other older populations. Beyond that, you are still missing the point that if the number of serious cases rises too high relative to the available medical care, then IFR will rise not because the disease became more deadly but because more people received only limited or even no treatment, or palliative treatment instead of aggressive measures. That means that people who had perfectly survivable cases don’t survive. That’s what is happening in Italy and Spain right now, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/106 "2020-03-26T23:54:05Z")
> [@slash2k](#): > > They also note that Iceland has been able (so far) to keep it out of their elderly population, due at least in part to their quarantine measures. (I daresay it is also due to lifestyle issues; I have not heard of many elderly Icelanders going on Caribbean cruises, e.g.) We already know this disease has a death rate proportionately much higher among older people, so I’m not sure Iceland’s experience will be similar to those of countries where the disease does get into nursing homes and other older populations. > > Beyond that, you are still missing the point that if the number of serious cases rises too high relative to the available medical care, then IFR will rise not because the disease became more deadly but because more people received only limited or even no treatment, or palliative treatment instead of aggressive measures. That means that people who had perfectly survivable cases don’t survive. That’s what is happening in Italy and Spain right now, for example. I agree and I understand that. Its just that there are a lot of unanswered questions right now. We don’t know the real CFR or IFR, and we don’t know the long term economic impacts, nor do we know what effects those economic impacts will have. A smaller global economy with better priorities (that invests a bigger % of GDP in education, R&D, infrastructure, renewables, etc) may not harm the younger generation as badly even if the economy overall is smaller. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/107 "2020-03-27T00:21:41Z")
So, this is clearly turned into a thread there the o.p., having “just asked the question,” proceeds to adopt an oppositional position and dogmatically defends it regardless of any evidence or logical arguments presented. Since there is no point to continuing this as an honest discussion, i’ll just leave a link to [Dr. John Campbell’s latest data-based evaluation and cautionary warning to countries who aren’t taking isolation efforts seriously.](https://youtu.be/2sy3gtORANw) Oh, and by the way, [PBS News Hour: “The US now has the most confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world.”](https://youtu.be/PmU_76Yz5pk) [America, fuck yeah!](https://youtu.be/_keMcnUX3WA) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/108 "2020-03-27T00:39:34Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I’ve posted this vox article elsewhere: > [Coronavirus deaths and severe cases by age: What we know - Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age) > > It’s not complete but it does discuss available stats on the % who require hospitalization and ICU by age. Thanks, it is useful, and interesting. It broadly agrees with my back of the envelope thoughts. In fact it is a bit grimmer for some age groups. In a saturated health system the ultimate death rate for younger age groups probably rises between ten and twenty times from a situation where the system has capability to care for them. (I’m essentially assuming that if you need ICU care and don’t get it, you will die.) If the pandemic is unchecked we can expect up to 1 in 50 of people between 30 to 49 to die. Something of a worst case, but quite reasonable. Hard to imagine what would happen in the few months when this was happening. Family members arriving at hospitals with guns demanding that their relative be put on a ventilator is probably just the start. You can be pretty sure that it anarchy resulting would rip the country apart. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/109 "2020-03-27T01:10:28Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > I don’t want to die. I got bad news for you… ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/110 "2020-03-27T04:20:31Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > … > But isn’t newer research showing the death rate is closer to 0.5%, possibly even lower? It’s looking like 10% in Italy right now. I think that’s mostly because their medical system was completely swamped. Unfortunately, I fear the same here. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > …The major strain of smallpox had a 30% mortality rate, and I don’t believe they shut society down when they were vaccinating against that disease. a case fatality rate of 0.5% is about on par with malaria, and societies with that don’t shut down… Smallpox outbreaks routinely DID shut down the economy of the place with the outbreak, back in the day. And that’s despite some people being immune (due to having recovered in the past) and And malaria kind of shuts down the economy on its own. I read a paper that plotted economic production per capita against incidence of malaria in some region of Africa, once, and the correlation was huge – huge enough that it was enough to explain the underperformance of a lot of African nations on a global scale. Lots of adults who don’t have the energy to work makes a difference in productivity. Here’s an article with a nice graph comparing how contagious and how deadly various diseases are: > **[Visualised: how Ebola compares to other infectious diseases](https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2014/oct/15/visualised-how-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases)** > > David McCandless visualises how the deadliness and infectiousness of Ebola compares to other pathogens ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/111 "2020-03-27T06:42:42Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > This is NOT a politician’s dream… Why do you think Trump and Congress were so eager to pass this huge stimulus bill? Why do you think Trump keeps bucking scientists, including his top advisors, by saying we should ease up on the restrictions? It’s a disaster relief bill, not an economic stimulus, and it looks like attempted bribery, not a way to funnel cash to those most needful. And why does Putin’s puppy behave so erratically? Only his insightful intestines know for sure. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Its more like debating if trying to conquer the entire nation of Afghanistan is worth it to stop a few hundred Al Qaeda fighters. Its a valid question. The A-Q 9/11 crew also trained in Germany, Florida, and Arizona, which weren’t invaded. Let’s instead debate the worth of mandatory tamper-proof seals after only a _few_ pill bottles were poisoned. What! Massive FDA over-reaction over almost nothing! ---
**Author:** ![actualliberalnotoneofthose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e79b87/32.png) [@actualliberalnotoneofthose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/actualliberalnotoneofthose)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/112 "2020-03-27T09:44:10Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > [40-something year-old Uber driver dies after transporting passenger with COVID-19](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/an-uber-driver-has-reportedly-died-from-the-coronavirus/) > > I’m 40-something. I don’t want to die. Same, but a lot of these you will never know (often for good reason, due to medical privacy) how much coronavirus caused the death versus how much it was the complications on top of other health conditions. Even most of the deaths in the 50s-60s I’m seeing a lot of vague language alluding to “in addition to other factors.” ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/113 "2020-03-27T11:03:34Z")
> [@actualliberalnotoneofthose](#): > > Same, but a lot of these you will never know (often for good reason, due to medical privacy) how much coronavirus caused the death versus how much it was the complications on top of other health conditions. Even most of the deaths in the 50s-60s I’m seeing a lot of vague language alluding to “in addition to other factors.” People say this like this is supposed to be comforting. It isn’t. A lot of us have “other factors”. A lot of us have these factors without knowing we do, because we haven’t been to the doctor in ages. On Reddit, you will always find people hand-waving away a story about a young-ish person dying from COVID-19 when it turns out the person was overweight. 60% of American adults are overweight. 40% are obese. But I guess those of us who aren’t overweight can be glad we’re safe, right? Not unless we have asthma, diabetes, or are heavy smokers. Hell, Redditors have even diagnosed [this super fit cycling fanatic who is battling COVID-19](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146985/Super-fit-cycling-fanatic-40-battles-COVID-19-wife-tells-young-people-not-invincible.html) with some underlying medical condition, despite the article clearly stating he has none. “He’s a cycling fanatic! Everyone knows those people are prone to heart attacks!” says the skinny-fat, vitamin D-deficient neckbeard who hasn’t touched a vegetable other than marijuana in the past year. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/114 "2020-03-27T12:18:25Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > If this lockdown saves 25 million lives, but it costs 100 trillion dollars, that is 4 million per life saved. Since many of those saved are going to be people past their productive years. If you let the disease run its course, it will crush the health system - ffs, look at what’s happening to hospitals in NYC and that’s _with_ extraordinary restrictions on commerce and movement. You’re just looking at survival rates; you’re not looking at many, many young people who go to the hospital who can’t breathe, some of whom end up in the ICU. Trust me, in sufficient numbers, friends watching their friends gasp for air and stagger into a hospital where they lie on the floor and feel like they’re going to suffocate - and in some cases, do - that is going to scare people out of work, out of hanging out, out of shopping. It’s a fucking pandemic. There’s no getting around the public health impact, and there’s no getting around the economic impact either. That’s why they want to flatten the curve. People have already studied the public health impact of this. We don’t need to reinvent the wheel; we need to be disciplined, keep our heads straight, and get through this. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/115 "2020-03-27T12:21:29Z")
> [@actualliberalnotoneofthose](#): > > Same, but a lot of these you will never know (often for good reason, due to medical privacy) how much coronavirus caused the death versus how much it was the complications on top of other health conditions. Even most of the deaths in the 50s-60s I’m seeing a lot of vague language alluding to “in addition to other factors.” It’s not 50 and 60 in addition to other factors; it’s the other factors. These other factors accumulate with age. But there are plenty of younger Americans with other factors as well - like diabetes, cardiovascular disease, high blood pressure, obesity, etc. Even if it doesn’t necessarily kill you, the scarring of your lung tissue will deprive you of pulmonary function, possibly for the rest of your life. You might be disabled. You might have to call it quits for your career. And oh yeah, you might end up having to file for medical-related bankruptcy. All things that young people can look forward to. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/116 "2020-03-27T13:30:47Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Even if it doesn’t necessarily kill you, the scarring of your lung tissue will deprive you of pulmonary function, possibly for the rest of your life. You might be disabled. You might have to call it quits for your career. And oh yeah, you might end up having to file for medical-related bankruptcy. All things that young people can look forward to. That’s a very strongly worded claim. One small study found about a quarter of recovered patients had some residual lung issues. Obviously this was done soon after recovery, so long term prognosis is unknown. Presumably this is more likely to be a problem in severe case, not your average 20 year old. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/117 "2020-03-27T13:40:00Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > That’s a very strongly worded claim. One small study found about a quarter of recovered patients had some residual lung issues. Obviously this was done soon after recovery, so long term prognosis is unknown. Presumably this is more likely to be a problem in severe case, not your average 20 year old. It’s intended to be strongly worded, and it’s based on fact. I’m not referring to all cases that self-resolve, but if COVID-19 is bad enough to send you to the hospital, you’re sustaining lung damage - I said _possibly_ for the rest of your life. I think we should err on the side of caution. I haven’t written anything that’s alarmist. People are taking a lot of false comfort in statistics that do not nearly tell the whole story. Almost from the beginning, people have been taking false comfort in the fact that _only_ 1 percent die from the illness (in some countries, the death toll is considerably higher than that). We’ve been taking false comfort in the supposition that this afflicts older people or people who have extremely poor health. The reality is far more complex than that, and we’re seeing this time and time again, in country after country and city after city. People want to believe that this is being overblown by the media - it’s not. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/118 "2020-03-27T13:44:14Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > It’s looking like 10% in Italy right now. I think that’s mostly because their medical system was completely swamped. Unfortunately, I fear the same here. It’s mostly because they are under counting milder cases, especially in younger patients. This can easily be seen in the available data: > **[COVID-19 Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Italy](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667)** > > This Viewpoint from physicians with the Italian National Institute of Health confirms a higher case-fatality rate from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy compared with China and explains possible reasons, including age, cause of death... “The distribution of cases is very different in the 2 countries: individuals aged 70 years or older represent 37.6% of cases in Italy and only 11.9% in China.” While Italy has an old population, those 70 and older represent far less than 37.6% of their population, suggesting a true denominator much higher than the number of positive tests they are reporting. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/119 "2020-03-27T15:06:05Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > It’s mostly because they are under counting milder cases, especially in younger patients. This can easily be seen in the available data: > > [Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in Italy | Critical Care Medicine | JAMA | JAMA Network](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667) > > “The distribution of cases is very different in the 2 countries: individuals aged 70 years or older represent 37.6% of cases in Italy and only 11.9% in China.” > > While Italy has an old population, those 70 and older represent far less than 37.6% of their population, suggesting a true denominator much higher than the number of positive tests they are reporting. What point are you trying to make exactly? Are you saying it’s not that serious or that we’re blowing it out of proportion? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297/120 "2020-03-27T15:23:22Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > It’s mostly because they are under counting milder cases, especially in younger patients. This can easily be seen in the available data: > > [Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in Italy | Critical Care Medicine | JAMA | JAMA Network](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667) > > “The distribution of cases is very different in the 2 countries: individuals aged 70 years or older represent 37.6% of cases in Italy and only 11.9% in China.” > > While Italy has an old population, those 70 and older represent far less than 37.6% of their population, suggesting a true denominator much higher than the number of positive tests they are reporting. On the one hand, yeah, I certainly hope that 10% is overstated, and it seems likely that it is. On the other hand, I think they are seeing a lot more than the 0.5% mortality cited by the OP. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-what-we-are-doing-isnt-overreacting/850297.md?page=7)