The Baltimore Sun is reporting that negotiations are underway for another turce and Sadr has been injuring in the fighting, thought not critically.
I wish someone (Sadr, Allawi, and everyone else involved) would make up their minds about what’s going on here.
A summary of the events so far, as I understand them:
The first week, it’s reported that the Mehdi army has taken heavy casualties (up to 400 deaths, by one account), and is on the verge of collapse. Najaf’s police general directorate claims that 1200 militiamen have surrendered, and that Najaf had been secured.
Well, except for that one detail of the holy shrine of Imam Ali and the huge, sprawling, labyrinthine cemetery. That’s completely under the control of the Mehdi army, and they’re not showing any signs of leaving the area.
Then the US raids Sadr’s house. He’s not there, but he does get wounded in a separate incident. Maybe. In any case, the Mehdi army appears to agree to a truce, though with certain conditions.
Meanwhile, thousands of Shia demonstrators march in an impressive display of support for Sadr’s militia, although their supplies seem consist mainly of candy.
Then the truce breaks down, and fighting resumes.
In the news yesterday, the Iraqi defense minister Hazim al-Shaalan announces that the Iraqi forces are about to storm the Ali shrine “in the next few hours,” and warns the Mehdi army that “We will teach them a lesson they will never forget.”
Empty boasting? Maybe. But not long after this announcement, a spokesperson for Sadr indicated that Sadr was ready to leave the shrine and end the uprising, in exchange for amnesty.
So it’s all over, right?
No. Today, Sadr announced that he rejects all of the government’s demands and that he will keep fighting. Indeed, the police station in Najaf has now been hit by mortar attacks, which have killed seven police officers. And now Prime Minister Allawi is insisting that he’s offering Sadr a final call before he goes into the shrine himself to yank Sadr out–OK, those weren’t his exact words, but he’s getting close to saying that.
So what’s going to happen next? A final truce, with the Mehdi army disarming and forming a political movement? More see-sawing, with the Mehdi army agreeing to a cease-fire, the cease-fire collapsing, and back and forth? Or an actual assault on the Imam Ali shrine, as Allawi and al-Shaalan have been promising?
The first situation may be the most desireable, as the second one is starting to fray nerves and the third one could backfire spectacularly. However, if it is the third situation–an assault on the Mehdi army inside the shrine–how will it be carried out? The US has insisted it won’t get involved, lest it appear that Americans are defiling a sacred Shia site. On the other hand, do the Iraqi government forces really have the muscle to take on the Mehdi army alone? Or have the militia been worn down enough by the weeks of fighting that they’ll just collapse to any assault force? The residents of Najaf don’t seem to be too supportive of Sadr, but what support he does have may be growing, and if the assault doesn’t go well, then we could have a full-scale uprising throughout Iraq.
I guess we’ll find out our answers soon.