# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/221 "2017-11-09T17:09:10Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I don’t know if the dems will win the senate, I doubt it. But if they win the house, will also winning the senate help them any? With the house the dems can conduct investigations and block legislation. The senate wouldn’t add to that except also allow the dems to block Trump judge appointments. I think it would help them. First, as you say, they’d be able to block judicial nominations, which is a big deal. Anthony Kennedy could start feeling his age, or the Notorious RBG could have a stroke, or who knows. And they’d be able to slow or stop Trump’s stocking the lower courts with right-wing judges too. Second, they’d be able to pass legislation and put it on Trump’s desk to sign or veto. He’d either have to go to war with the Dems - and the Dems could pass all sorts of good stuff that would look terrible to veto - or decide to deal with them. Given the interactions between Trump and the Schumer-Pelosi team so far, I think there would be some successful dealing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/222 "2017-11-09T17:31:42Z")
Moore is refusing to debate Jones. That’s an opportunity for Jones to rhetorically call him out as a coward, either providing a campaign cudgel to use again and again (e.g. “why is Roy Moore afraid to debate Doug Jones…?”), or to get him on the debate stage and expose him for wingnuttery that (hopefully) might even be too far for some Republican voters. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/223 "2017-11-09T17:49:56Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Moore is refusing to debate Jones. That’s an opportunity for Jones to rhetorically call him out as a coward, either providing a campaign cudgel to use again and again (e.g. “why is Roy Moore afraid to debate Doug Jones…?”) Jones is already doing just that, I’m glad to say. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/224 "2017-11-09T18:15:03Z")
The Washington Post has just broke a story saying that Roy Moore initiated a sexual encounter with a 14 year old girl when Moore was 32. > **[Woman says Roy Moore initiated sexual encounter when she was 14, he was 32](https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/woman-says-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-when-she-was-14-he-was-32/2017/11/09/1f495878-c293-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html?pushid=5a0497e61ee56f1d00000003&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.46f79545eea7)** > > Alabama resident Leigh Corfman said that in 1979, when Moore was an assistant district attorney, he brought her to his home and touched her sexually. Three other women said that Moore – now a candidate for U.S. Senate -- pursued them when they were... ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/225 "2017-11-09T18:17:04Z")
I’d say the chances of Jones’ victory just increased: > **[Woman says Roy Moore initiated sexual encounter when she was 14, he was 32](https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/woman-says-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-when-she-was-14-he-was-32/2017/11/09/1f495878-c293-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html?utm_term=.4a9198a04a54)** > > Alabama resident Leigh Corfman said that in 1979, when Moore was an assistant district attorney, he brought her to his home and touched her sexually. Three other women said that Moore – now a candidate for U.S. Senate -- pursued them when they were... > [@](#): > > Woman says Roy Moore initiated sexual encounter when she was 14, he was 32 > [@](#): > > Two of Corfman’s childhood friends say she told them at the time that she was seeing an older man, and one says Corfman identified the man as Moore. Wells says her daughter told her about the encounter more than a decade later, as Moore was becoming more prominent as a local judge. > > Aside from Corfman, three other women interviewed by The Washington Post in recent weeks say Moore pursued them when they were between the ages of 16 and 18 and he was in his early 30s, episodes they say they found flattering at the time, but troubling as they got older. None of the women say that Moore forced them into any sort of relationship or sexual contact. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/226 "2017-11-09T18:22:53Z")
There is still time to remove him and replace him with someone who isn’t a child molesting bigot. (ETA: I don’t know if there is still time under AL law. But they can disavow and stop funding him) But I doubt the GOP will do that. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/227 "2017-11-09T18:23:05Z")
Well, that’s a surprise. Given the great show Moore makes of his fear and hatred of Teh Gayz, I would have expected such a scandal to involve a 14-year-old _boy_. > [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > There is still time to remove him and replace him with someone who isn’t a child molesting bigot. > > But I doubt the GOP will do that. Unless there’s a mechanism for the party to outright remove him from the ticket, they’re stuck with him – he’s too stubborn to step aside for the good of the party. Even then, they’re probably screwed, given the number of derplorables who would be pissed off at the “RINOs” for stabbing their man in the back. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/228 "2017-11-09T18:23:32Z")
While I’m not surprised by this, I doubt the kinds of people who vote for Roy Moore will care. Trump’s behavior didn’t bother them either. I miss the days when saying the phrase ‘legitimate rape’ was all it took to end a conservative campaign that should have been a shoe in. Now being a pedophile is barely an issue. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/229 "2017-11-09T18:29:17Z")
I’m glad the Post story went into some specific details, it makes it far more difficult for a rational person to just dismiss it as ‘fake news.’ For Jones to win, he’ll need some Republican voters to throw up their hands and just stay home. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/230 "2017-11-09T18:37:50Z")
Moore will probably still win. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/231 "2017-11-09T19:07:34Z")
A couple of things that might work against Moore: Voter fatigue. Remember, this is the third election just for this special Senate race for Republicans since there was a primary and then a runoff primary. Also, this odd date of December 12 for the special election. In a lot of workplaces, those first two weeks of December are fairly hectic, since people want to get everything done before year end and a lot of people like to take time off those last two weeks of the year. I could see a lot of more moderate Republicans just sitting out this election, they may never vote for Democrat but the stench of Moore might just be too much. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/232 "2017-11-09T19:11:11Z")
I’m visiting Alabama later this month to visit family (all hard-core right-wing fundies) and I’ve contacted the Doug Jones campaign headquarters to volunteer as much as I can while I’m out there. Keeping my fingers crossed that this long shot can pull out a win. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/233 "2017-11-09T19:17:35Z")
At the moment, the betting market PredictIt has Moore down below 50 percent to win. This morning he was around 90. Jones is up from ten to around 40. Bettors apparently are taking the latest allegations seriously. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/234 "2017-11-09T19:22:20Z")
I predict the GOP will not withdraw his nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/235 "2017-11-09T19:36:21Z")
McConnell said “if true” Moore should step aside. Several other senators too. We’ll see if they stick to that in a week. Lots of people condemned Trump temporarily after the Access Hollywood tape too. I’m slightly more optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/236 "2017-11-09T19:40:54Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > At the moment, the betting market PredictIt has Moore down below 50 percent to win. This morning he was around 90. Jones is up from ten to around 40. > > Bettors apparently are taking the latest allegations seriously. I went to the [Alabama senate PredictIt market](https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama) as soon as I heard about this story. Moore is down $0.34 today but Jones only rose by $0.23. Why the difference? Because Luther Strange is up $0.05 and Mo Brooks is up $0.02. So at least some people think there’s a chance of Moore dropping out or being forced out in some way. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/237 "2017-11-09T19:50:45Z")
McConnell is a telling sign. Ordinarily, the would be all about denial. Failing that, they would fall back on too soon, wait for thorough investigation. This is a clear sign they want him gone, and gone soon enough so they can stick somebody else in there and still salvage the seat. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/238 "2017-11-09T19:55:25Z")
> [@](#): > > “If it is true I don’t think his candidacy is sustainable but we believe in a presumption of innocence until proven guilty and so I think it’s important for the facts to come out,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) told reporters. “It’s not just an allegation, it’s a story, there has to be something more to it so I’m interested in seeing what substantiation there is for the story.” (emphasis gleefully added) Da fuk? Its like the bus was waiting at the curb for the throw-under ceremony! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/239 "2017-11-09T19:57:18Z")
I think it would have to be a dead girl or live boy to really be the last straw. Still, with the Democratic enthusiasm we saw in Virginia combined with this to dampen Republican enthusiasm, this could be the crazy year that sees a Democratic Senator from Alabama. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2017, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/240 "2017-11-09T19:58:35Z")
An accusation of an event from 40 years ago? C’mon now. Anyone can accuse anyone of anything. I’m of the opinion that since we have something called “courts” trials of people accused of crimes should usually occur there. Plus we all know as the great political sage James Carville once said “Drag a hundred-dollar bill through a trailer park, you never know what you’ll find.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=13)