# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/21 "2017-08-14T02:37:29Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > In _Alabama_? šŸ™‚ Alabamaā€™s cultural contributions to American life are incest, lynchings, and illiteracy. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/22 "2017-08-14T02:41:46Z")
> [@EndlessEntropy](#): > > Jesus. People there are that loyal to the GOP? Not just the GOP. [Trump has a 55% approval rating in Ablabama.](http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/07/president_trumps_approval_rati_2.html) (as of July) ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/23 "2017-08-14T03:17:44Z")
> [@EndlessEntropy](#): > > Jesus. People there are that loyal to the GOP? Is it anything to do with liberal policies or just the word ā€œDemocrat?ā€ > > Like suppose George Wallace rose from the dead and ran, do you think he would lose too? If George Wallace (at least, the segregationist Wallace) were an active politician today, thereā€™s no way he would be a Democrat. Most white southern Democrats left for the GOP decades ago. And, yes, most whites in Alabama, and other southern states, really _are_ that loyal to the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/24 "2017-08-14T03:27:30Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > And, yes, most whites in Alabama, and other southern states, really _are_ that loyal to the GOP. Too late to edit: here are the [Congressional districts in Alabama](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alabama%27s_congressional_districts). Six of seven seats are held by Republicans, and all six of those districts have strong GOP ā€œpartisanshipā€ (i.e., they are highly unlikely to be competitive). Thereā€™s one Democratic district, gerrymandered to include Birmingham and Montgomeryā€™s populations of African-Americans (the current Congresswoman from that district, Terri Sewell, is an African-American). ---
**Author:** ![lokij](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/5e9695/32.png) [@lokij](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lokij)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/25 "2017-08-14T03:36:38Z")
Lived just over the border in TN for several years, Huntsville was the nearest large city. Roy Moore is going to be the next senator, not a doubt in my mind. The vast majority of people a fifteen minute drive out from any city, in any direction basically hate the America that exists now. They want no part of it, they donā€™t understand it and they donā€™t want toā€¦ if the culture wars degenerate into a shooting war, and given this past week Iā€™m not beyond considering it, Alabama will be our Helmand province. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/26 "2017-08-14T15:58:00Z")
It should be remembered that in his later stages even George Wallace repudiated his racist past. Some argue that this was a cynical move motivated more by the political consideration than by conviction, but Iā€™ve heard that argument made for his earlier racist posturing as well. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/27 "2017-08-14T16:07:51Z")
> [@EndlessEntropy](#): > > Looks like the Republican frontrunner, Roy Moore, has issues with a suspension, ethics codes violations, interference, and authority abuse. Doug Jones looks like a solid choice for the Democrats and if the turnout is favorable for Democrats and underwhelming for the Republicans, maybe the Democrats can win. > > What will it take for a W? I donā€™t know, but they are pulling out the stops. Iā€™ve been getting robocalls at a DC number to go vote for Jones. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/28 "2017-08-15T13:19:15Z")
I hadnā€™t been paying much attention to this race, and if you had asked me two days ago who was going to win, I would have answered Luther Strange. I had no idea he was in danger of coming in 3rd in the Republican primary and that Roy Moore is leading. What is going on in Alabama these days? Thereā€™s another thread about Ohio moving to the right. I wonder if Alabama is moving even further to the right, and if so why. If I were a liberal in Alabama Iā€™d be tempted to vote for Strange in the Republican primary just to keep Roy Moore out of office. What is our country coming too? ā˜¹ ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/29 "2017-08-15T13:40:43Z")
If Roy Moore wins the nomination, and Democratic turnout is sky-high, and a small but significant enough portion of the Republicans and conservative independents are disgusted enough by Mooreā€™s insanity to either stay home or vote for the Democratic candidate, then the Democrats will have a small but real chance of winning. But Iā€™d only bet on it if I got 10 to 1 return or so. And Iā€™d want to wait to see if Moore got the nomination first. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/30 "2017-08-15T18:23:24Z")
Roy Moore will be the GOP nominee and will defeat the Democrat in a walk. By at least 20%. Seriously people - this is Alabama weā€™re talking about. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/31 "2017-08-15T18:32:03Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Roy Moore will be the GOP nominee and will defeat the Democrat in a walk. By at least 20%. > > Seriously people - this is Alabama weā€™re talking about. 20% is about how much Obama lost by in 2008 and 2012. If itā€™s Moore, I think the margin would be a lot lower, though heā€™d still be a huge favorite. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/32 "2017-08-15T20:33:51Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I wonder if Alabama is moving even further to the right, and if so why. I suspect many white people in Alabama feel their racist views were legitimized and approved by Trump winning the election. Anyway, itā€™s unlikely weā€™ll have nominations today. I suspect both partiesā€™ primaries will go into runoff elections. By the way, Alabama recently passed a law that bans cross-party voting between primary and runoff. So if I vote in the Republican primary today, I canā€™t vote in the Democratic runoff in September. Iā€™m not really sure if that changes anything though. It still wonā€™t stop Democrats from voting in the Republican primary _and_ runoff, then voting for the Democratic nominee in the general election. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/33 "2017-08-16T01:42:36Z")
Updates here: [Alabama Senate primary 2017 results: Moore wins runoff, latest updates - al.com](http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/08/alabama_senate_primary_2017_wh.html#incart_big-photo) Looks like Doug Jones will win the Dem primary comfortably, no runoff. Roy Moore is leading in the Republican primary, but not a majority. Looks like thereā€™ll be a runoff election between Strange and Moore in September. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/34 "2017-08-16T02:10:52Z")
Oh joy. So we have a month of ā€œBigā€ Luther Strange (yes, he calls himself that), an Attorney General who allowed himself to be appointed Senator by the Governor he was supposed to be investigating, versus ā€œJudgeā€ Roy Moore, who is no longer a Judge since heā€™s been kicked off the Alabama Supreme Court _ **twice** _ (yes, we elected judges here, so the good citizens of Alabama put him back in office after his first removal). I really donā€™t know if I should laugh or cryā€¦ FTR, I voted for the Democratic candidate Doug Jones, but I donā€™t give him much of a chance. The big campaign is this next month or so. I suspect it will start dirty and descend quickly into the muck and mire. As before, oh joy. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/35 "2017-08-16T02:22:51Z")
The only way I see Doug Jones having any change of winning the election in December is if Roy Moore wins the Republican primary runoff, Luther Strange decides to run as an Independent to keep try & keep his seat, _and_ former Attorney-General Jeff Sessions also runs as an Independent to try & get back into the Senate. Also if it would help if Doug Jones was outed as the Second Coming of Jesus, and all three other men were caught on tape admitting to Atheism. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/36 "2017-08-16T04:46:21Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > 20% is about how much Obama lost by in 2008 and 2012. If itā€™s Moore, I think the margin would be a lot lower, though heā€™d still be a huge favorite. The number you should be looking at is this - **Trump won Alabama by 28%.** Moore has **GOD** on his side. In Alabama that counts for a lot. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2017, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/37 "2017-08-16T18:07:21Z")
Some say Strange has a pretty good chance in the runoff. Strange & Brooks were the establishment Republicans (incumbent Senator and Congressman), and Strange+Brooks votes added up to 52% vs. Moore 39%. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2017, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/38 "2017-08-17T04:46:54Z")
Hereā€™s the most realistic scenario in which Doug Jones wins this thingā€¦ 1. Massive cranial trauma to both Strange and Moore. 2. They forget how elections work and spend the the next several months publicly felating each other. 3. Jones ekes out a 0.001% victory. Every other Jones win scenario is less likely than the above. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2017, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/39 "2017-08-17T17:19:21Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Hereā€™s the most realistic scenario in which Doug Jones wins this thingā€¦ > > 1. Massive cranial trauma to both Strange and Moore. > 2. They forget how elections work and spend the the next several months publicly felating each other. > 3. Jones ekes out a 0.001% victory. > > Every other Jones win scenario is less likely than the above. Thanks. I was trying to come up with a hypothetical scenario less likely than a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Alabama, and the very least likely thing I could think of was ā€œa Democrat winning a Senate seat in Alabama.ā€ ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2017, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/40 "2017-08-17T18:05:52Z")
As long as we are discussing scenarios for Doug Jones winning (which by definition are all highly unlikely scenarios), how about: - Roy Moore wins runoff - Jeff Sessions gets fired by Trump - Jeff Sessions runs as write-in candidate; Moore refuses to exit race - Sessions and Moore split votes 33%/33%, Jones gets 34%. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=3)