# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/441 "2017-11-10T21:57:01Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Because lying is a perfectly acceptable and very Christian virtue for a Republican candidate for Senate. Yes. But “retired” judges retain the honorary title. Not sure there is a rule for disgraced former judges. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/442 "2017-11-10T21:57:16Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > A common estimate (by police departments) of the rate of false rape accusations, discussed below, is somewhere around 30%. So yes, it’s more likely than not that the accuser in any given rape case is telling the truth. It’s a little over twice as likely though, not ‘infinitely’ more likely. > > [Lies, Damned Lies, And Social Media (Part 5 of ∞) | Slate Star Codex](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-social-media-part-5-of-%E2%88%9E/) There’s not just 1 - this is multiple accusers with corroboration. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/443 "2017-11-10T21:58:31Z")
The discussion of what the voters of Alabama “should” do is all well and good but what they “should” do is not necessarily the same as what they _will_ do. Let’s assume nothing more comes out and he stays in the race. What _will_ they do? Most recent poll now says [tied](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/359817-alabama-poll-moore-and-jones-tied-following-scandal). Grains of salt duly taken. MOE is over 4. He’s been up by 6 on average before the allegations came out. But of course turnout is everything. Knowing they have more of a shot will more Democrats and their leaners show up? I think so. Knowing that the defender of morality has _minimally_ had a thing for trying to have sex out of wedlock with the barely legal and _appears_ to have crossed a legal line molesting a 14 year old as well, will the evangelical conservatives stay home some? Hell no. They voted for Trump they’ll vote for Moore. They’d vote for Satan with horns showing who said the right things before they’d vote for a Democrat. Knowing the same will those who were likely to be loyal to party, or at least felt that Moore was a lesser harm than a Democrat, more commonly stay home? I suspect so. but many likely already were going to. How many true independent voters are there in Alabama? Does this impact what they do? ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/444 "2017-11-10T22:11:36Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > A common estimate (by police departments) of the rate of false rape accusations, discussed below, is somewhere around 30%. So yes, it’s more likely than not that the accuser in any given rape case is telling the truth. It’s a little over twice as likely though, not ‘infinitely’ more likely. > > [Lies, Damned Lies, And Social Media (Part 5 of ∞) | Slate Star Codex](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-social-media-part-5-of-%E2%88%9E/) Can you point to the part in your link that says the rate is 30%? Because all I can find in that blog post is the author using an 8% rate and another reference to ranges of 2.1% to 10.9%. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/445 "2017-11-10T22:15:54Z")
Something bugging me here. I mentioned elsewhere, perhaps here, but how it was that a parent would permit her child to be…what? dating?..a grown man. Story is that Moore encountered the youngster while her mother was attending a custody hearing. He was an assistant district attorney. There’s a potential answer, right there: a parent who has reason to fear what an asst. DA might do. Makes me ill to think it, but was this guy trolling the courts for victims? And might that not have some bearing on reluctance to come forward? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/446 "2017-11-10T22:19:27Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > What I said, for those who were slow to comprehend: > > In Alabama, he may only have committed a misdemeanor offense. > > The question being raised is: should/will Alabamans switch their vote on the basis of the allegations? > > Those arguing they should are asserting that someone from Alabama should change their viewpoint on how to vote on the bases of a 40 year old allegation of a misdemeanor crime. > > So, the potential pitfall: Democrats who committed misdemeanor offenses 40 years ago being kept out of office. Examples: drug use (often admitted), minor shoplifting or other such offenses, tax evasion of a minor nature, assaults, etc. > > And, for the record, no, I don’t feel like my moral outrage should ensue over activities by someone from a different culture which _my_ culture would find outrageous. If Roy Moore had done the same thing in a state where sexual contact with a 14 y.o. was a felony offense for someone of his age at the time, I’d be much more likely to suggest that Democrats get morally upset about the notion of electing him. Among the allegations is that Roy Moore allowed, encouraged, or placed the hands of a minor on his penis. That may or may not have been a misdemeanor in the state of Alabama in 1979, but most people would then - and now - think that it’s pretty low behavior. It’s especially low when you consider that in 2017 even looking at a picture of an underage woman holding a man’s penis is a FELONY. Not the act itself but simply observing the act. Felony. Years in jail. Registration as a sex offender. The works. In any of these cases, regardless of the law, creepy, creepy behavior. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/447 "2017-11-10T22:21:18Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Something bugging me here. I mentioned elsewhere, perhaps here, but how it was that a parent would permit her child to be…what? dating?..a grown man. > > Story is that Moore encountered the youngster while her mother was attending a custody hearing. He was an assistant district attorney. There’s a potential answer, right there: a parent who has reason to fear what an asst. DA might do. Makes me ill to think it, but was this guy trolling the courts for victims? And might that not have some bearing on reluctance to come forward? I think you nailed it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/448 "2017-11-10T22:26:24Z")
Wish I felt better about it. Its enough to gag a maggot. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/449 "2017-11-10T22:35:32Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Something bugging me here. I mentioned elsewhere, perhaps here, but how it was that a parent would permit her child to be…what? dating?..a grown man. > > Story is that Moore encountered the youngster while her mother was attending a custody hearing. He was an assistant district attorney. There’s a potential answer, right there: a parent who has reason to fear what an asst. DA might do. Makes me ill to think it, but was this guy trolling the courts for victims? And might that not have some bearing on reluctance to come forward? Yeah, made my stomach roil when I read that, too. I knew a lot of assistant District Attorneys in my career. Never knew a one of them who patrolled the hallways of the courts, offering to keep track of stray children while the parent appeared for a civil custody hearing. Not only is he an alleged molester, but if true, then he abused a position of trust and authority to gain access to the child. Doesn’t get much more morally reprehensible. Except maybe to hide behind your religious beliefs as an excuse. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/450 "2017-11-10T22:35:36Z")
> **[Denying Allegations, Moore Tells Hannity He Did ‘Not Generally’ Pursue Teens](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/roy-moore-denies-misconduct-hannity-did-not-generally-date-teenagers)** > > Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) pushed back on reports that he pursued sexual relationships with teenagers in a Friday interview on Sean Hannity’s radio show, telling the host that he did “not… > [@](#): > > …Moore used the phrase “good girl” to describe both women, who said that he kissed them and took them on dates when they were in their late teens and he was in his early 30s. Moore denied doing so and said he didn’t “remember dating any girl without the permission of her mother.” > > Asked if he remembered dating girls that young in general, Moore said, “Not generally, no.”… (emphasis added in shock, horror and dismay) 'Nuff sed. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/451 "2017-11-10T22:42:32Z")
“Not generally, no.” Anyone still not convinced? ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/452 "2017-11-10T22:51:00Z")
Sure. They were all special cases. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/453 "2017-11-10T22:54:19Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > I mean, there are different possible patterns. But the fact that he solicited other teenagers who lived with their parents when he was thirty makes it a little harder to dismiss this teenager’s claims. I suppose it’s possible that in his thirties he solicited only teenagers who lived with their parents and who were over the age of consent, and that this teenager who lived with her parents and was under the age of consent is making the whole thing up–but that doesn’t seem super likely. Didn’t he hit on a second 14 year old, then later hit on her again when she was 16 (or thereabouts)? ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/454 "2017-11-10T22:57:47Z")
[Knives](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453632/roy-moore-defenders-disgusting) are [out](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453637/roy-moore-evangelical-supporters-lack-faith) at _[National Review](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453622/roy-moore-should-drop-out)_. I think the Dishonorable Roy Moore’s toast may be approaching doneness. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/455 "2017-11-10T23:14:57Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > [Knives](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453632/roy-moore-defenders-disgusting) are [out](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453637/roy-moore-evangelical-supporters-lack-faith) at _[National Review](http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453622/roy-moore-should-drop-out)_. I think the Dishonorable Roy Moore’s toast may be approaching doneness. I don’t think it has much to do with any of the facts that have come out, or moral judgements in any case. The knives are out for Bannon, he is a bigger threat to them than the Dems at the moment. And Moore is a surrogate for Banoon, if they can get the momentum against Moore, then associate him back to his sponsor, they win. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/456 "2017-11-10T23:14:58Z")
National Review, if memory serves, also fought the good fight against Trump and we see what that accomplished. The GOP is the Breitbart party these days, not the National Review party. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/457 "2017-11-10T23:28:52Z")
This [interview with Nate Cohn](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2017/11/roy_moore_will_probably_win_alabama_s_senate_seat.html), the elections guy from the NYT, throws some cold water on the idea that a write-in campaign will split the Republican vote enough to give Jones the win. > [@](#): > > Alabama is a state where the Republicans would be favored even in a three-way race with two Republicans and a Democrat. Hillary Clinton received 34 percent of the vote in Alabama. The Democratic path to victory would require the Republicans to split the vote almost evenly. If a Republican had even a modest advantage among the two of them, that would be enough to swamp a 34 percent vote share. Polls show Jones in the 40s, but a lot of his additional support comes from Republicans who can’t bring themselves to vote for Moore. Add in Strange, and Jones’ support probably drops down to the low to mid 30s, making it difficult to win. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/458 "2017-11-10T23:36:12Z")
That makes sense. Depressing, therefore true. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/459 "2017-11-10T23:36:58Z")
Even without the recent allegations, Moore is unfit for any office of trust in the United States. He has proven twice that he could not care less about the United States constitution. His positions on race and SOCAS alone should be enough to keep him from being seated. And that is without bringing into view his organization’s celebration of Alabama’s 1861 secession and hosting a hate group speaker from the league of the south. Moore’s blatant disregard of federal courts also should disqualify him from federal office. Regarding his scum supporters using Joseph and Mary to dismiss/downplay Moore’s alleged actions: last night, I saw one of the late night hosts (Kimmel?) talking about that. To quote: > [@](#): > > That’s because Joseph didn’t touch her. That was their whole deal. She was the Virgin Mary, not the “Asking for it” Mary or the “Talking to the Washington Post About It 30 Years Later” Mary. Yes, today’s republican party is turning into a disgusting and unfunny joke. There is nothing they will not lie about or twist around to avoid having people they really don’t consider people getting into public office. Sadly, the people to whom they are pandering lap it up. The pandering is just to get votes, not to advance any good cause. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/460 "2017-11-10T23:49:12Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > “Not generally, no.” > > Anyone still not convinced? I listened to the Hannity interview. Although I stand by my earlier statements about the unfairness of these type of allegations, based upon Moore’s statements: guilty as charged. And he used to be a judge! How could he give such terrible answers? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=24)