# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2017, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/461 "2017-11-10T23:59:02Z")
And it begins… GOP Senators Mike Lee of Utah and Steve Daines of Montana have withdrawn their endorsements. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/462 "2017-11-11T00:11:44Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > And he used to be a judge! How could he give such terrible answers? He was a shitty judge, with little knowledge of the law. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/463 "2017-11-11T00:20:20Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > …And he used to be a judge! How could he give such terrible answers? Well, he did include that caveat about always asking parental permission. Is that a peculiarity of Alabama law, that conduct otherwise illegal is ok with parental permission? Did they sign some kind of diddling waiver? ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/464 "2017-11-11T00:22:34Z")
Plus he couldn’t have given her alcohol since they lived in a dry county. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/465 "2017-11-11T00:40:12Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Plus he couldn’t have given her alcohol since they lived in a dry county. Having lived for 20 years in a dry county in the South, it is ALWAYS possibly to consume alcohol or give it to someone else. You just have to head to the nearest “wet” county and go shopping. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/466 "2017-11-11T00:42:33Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Plus he couldn’t have given her alcohol since they lived in a dry county. LOL! ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/467 "2017-11-11T00:42:40Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Having lived for 20 years in a dry county in the South, it is ALWAYS possibly to consume alcohol or give it to someone else. You just have to head to the nearest “wet” county and go shopping. Sorry, the sarcasm did not come across in my post. Of course that is true which makes it absurd that Moore would use that as some sort of exculpatory evidence. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/468 "2017-11-11T01:28:12Z")
It’s Alabama, Moore’s still likely to win unless something even worse comes out. Like him pulling the same crap with a 14 your old boy. Which would be sad, but also deeply hilarious. > [@dalej42](#): > > Here’s a hypothetical: What if Moore wins but the Senate refuses to seat him? Could the Republican governor of Alabama then appoint another senator until another special election takes place? This would be one way for the Republicans to hold onto the seat. When was the last time the Senate refused to seat a duly elected candidate (not counting Al Franken). ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/469 "2017-11-11T01:58:34Z")
Two secuential articles that I saw on reddit via The Hill: [GOP official says he’d vote for Moore even if allegations are true (thehill.com)](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/359749-gop-official-says-hed-vote-for-moore-even-if-allegations-are-true) [Flake on Moore defenders: ‘This cannot be who we are’ (thehill.com)](http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/359865-flake-on-moore-defenders-this-cannot-be-who-we-are) Oh yes, Mr. Flake. That is what your party has become. Too bad you did not listen to what moderates and virtually all Democrats told you. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/470 "2017-11-11T01:59:13Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > When was the last time the Senate refused to seat a duly elected candidate (not counting Al Franken). It would be unconstitutional: > **[Powell v. McCormack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_v._McCormack)** > > Powell v. McCormack, 395 U.S. 486 (1969), is a United States Supreme Court case that held that the Qualifications of Members Clause of Article I of the US Constitution is an exclusive list of qualifications of members of the House of Representatives, which may exclude a duly elected member for only those reasons enumerated in that clause. > Adam Clayton Powell Jr., a senior member of the United States House of Representatives, was embroiled in scandal, specifically around allegations that he had... ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/471 "2017-11-11T02:54:11Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Sorry, the sarcasm did not come across in my post. Of course that is true which makes it absurd that Moore would use that as some sort of exculpatory evidence. Got it. Sadly most of those who support Moore should see through his claim won’t allow their brains to think on the statement hard enough to see how absurdity. And Fox News isn’t likely to point it out. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/472 "2017-11-11T02:55:20Z")
On Planet Fox, [it’s all Hillary’s fault!](http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/10/fox-news-loses-mind-blames-hillary-clinton-roy-moores-pedophilia.html) > [@](#): > > Fox jumped on a local report that one of Moore’s accusers worked as a sign language interpreter for Hillary Clinton’s campaign, “One of the women accusing Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore of sexual impropriety reportedly worked as a sign language interpreter for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, a new report claims. Deborah Wesson Gibson, who told The Washington Post that she briefly dated Moore when she was 17 and he was 34, founded the language interpreting company, Signs of Excellence, and has worked for a number of democratic campaigns, according to Alabama Local News.” ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/473 "2017-11-11T03:25:17Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > There’s not just 1 - this is multiple accusers with corroboration. Um, no, no this isn’t. Did you actually read the Washington Post accusation? There’s one person who accuses him of illegal sexual contact. None of the other three alleges anything physical happened beyond kissing, all of them were over the age of consent in Alabama and one was over the age of consent in every state. That adds up to _one_ person accusing him of illegal / immoral sexual activity. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/474 "2017-11-11T03:47:50Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > There’s not just 1 - this is multiple accusers with corroboration. Um, no, no this isn’t. Did you actually read the Washington Post accusation? There’s one person who accuses him of illegal sexual contact. None of the other three alleges anything physical happened beyond kissing, all of them were over the age of consent in Alabama and one was over the age of consent in every state. That adds up to _one_ person accusing him of illegal / immoral sexual activity. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/475 "2017-11-11T03:48:52Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Um, no, no this isn’t. Did you actually read the Washington Post accusation? > > There’s one person who accuses him of illegal sexual contact. None of the other three alleges anything physical happened beyond kissing, all of them were over the age of consent in Alabama and one was over the age of consent in every state. > > That adds up to _one_ person accusing him of illegal / immoral sexual activity. Immoral is subjective. Most Americans don’t think 30 year old men should be “dating” 16 year old girls. YMOV. Personally, I wouldn’t use the term “immoral”, favoring a more precise and technical term: fucking creepy as shit. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/476 "2017-11-11T03:59:43Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > No, it wasn’t. Refusing to comply with the order of an Alabama high court was illegal. Refusing to comply with the ruling of the US Supreme Court was illegal. Violating IRS laws governing charitable organizations for his personal benefit was illegal. Convening a grand jury under false pretenses and engaging in “suspect conduct” was illegal. Making completely asinine rulings as judge against a mother that he disliked may not have been illegal, but was enough to have him forcibly removed from the case and rises to the same level of moral malfeasance, in my view. He is far from legally or morally blameless, even if one agrees with his lunatic politics. Let me rephrase (I thought the context was clear, but apparently it wasn’t): if he did initiate sexual contact with a 14 year old, that appears to be the only _sexual situation_ where he’s alleged to have done something illegal. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/477 "2017-11-11T04:05:50Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Can you point to the part in your link that says the rate is 30%? Because all I can find in that blog post is the author using an 8% rate and another reference to ranges of 2.1% to 10.9%. Did you read the article? That’s the range of rape accusations which are demonstrated to be false (via internal contradiction or factual errors), which is obviously not the same as the actual rate of false accusations. (Many accusations are dropped, maybe the majority and never make it to the stage where investigators can prove them to be true or false). He discusses estimates of the rate of false accusations here: "The research community defines false accusations as those that can be proven false beyond a reasonable doubt, and all others as true. Yet many – maybe most – false accusations are not provably false and so will not be included. So there’s reason to believe some of those 2-10% of presumed false accusations are actually true, and other reasons to believe that some of the 98% – 92% of presumed true accusations are actually false. What is an upper bound on the number of false rape accusations? Researchers tend to find that police estimate 20%-40% of the rape accusations they get to be “unfounded”, (for example Philadelphia Police 1968, Chambers and Millar 1983, Grace et al 1992, Jordan 2004, Gregory and Lees 1996, etc, etc). Many scholars critique the police’s judgment, suggesting many police officers automatically dismiss anyone who doesn’t fit their profile of a “typical rape victim”. A police-based study that took pains to avoid this failure mode by investigating all cases very aggressively (Kanin 1994) was criticized for what I think are ideological reasons – they primarily seemed to amount to the worry that the aggressive investigations stigmatized rape victims, which would make them so flustered that they would falsely recant. Certainly possible. On the other hand, if you dismiss studies for not investigating thoroughly enough and for investigating thoroughly, there will never be any study you can’t dismiss. So while not necessarily endorsing Kanin and the similar studies in this range, I think they make a useful “not provably true” upper bound to contrast with the “near-provably false” lower bound of 2%-10%." Kanin estimated (IIRC) closer to 50%, I’d have to check, but I’d prefer to stick to 30% as it seems to be the midpoint of estimates from police departments. Scott Alexander uses 8% later on to establish an _absolute lower bound_ on the rate of false accusations. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/478 "2017-11-11T04:10:40Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > The whole misdemeanor versus felony argument is just a smokescreen. If a candidate I supporter announced they’d been busted for smoking a few joints in their college dorm 40 years ago or used to have a lead foot and racked up a ton of speeding tickets (when the speed limit was 55), I could care less. If Moore was perusing women significantly older than himself at 32, then I could care less. > > Someone perusing women in their teens while he’s already graduated from law school is just creepy. There’s a world of difference from 18 to 28 and that’s much greater than 28 to 38. Of course there’s a world of difference, but why does that make it ‘creepy’ for them to date? I certainly don’t want to date someone ‘similar’ to me. 18 year olds are considered adults in this country, and it’s perfectly legally and morally acceptable for them to date 28 year olds or for that matter 58 year olds. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/479 "2017-11-11T04:34:36Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Of course there’s a world of difference, but why does that make it ‘creepy’ for them to date? Because it tends to suggest to most folks one of two things: A.) The adult is severely emotionally stunted /lacking in social skills and can’t relate normally to other adults. Hence they seek validation and companionship by dating less socially skilled and easily impressed teens( who tend to dump them as they get old enough to realize what a loser this adult is ). B.) The adult is only interested in sex with pretty young things and is incapable or uninterested in having a real romantic partnership of any sort. Which really I suppose relates back to A in some respects only shallower and more predatory- at least A _wants_ a relationship. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/480 "2017-11-11T04:38:26Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Of course there’s a world of difference, but why does that make it ‘creepy’ for them to date? > > I certainly don’t want to date someone ‘similar’ to me. 18 year olds are considered adults in this country, and it’s perfectly legally and morally acceptable for them to date 28 year olds or for that matter 58 year olds. Legal schmegal. I don’t want to date my reflection either but an 18yo and 58yo dating is creepy in my book. And don’t assume its just the 58yo I consider creepy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=25)