# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/501 "2017-11-11T16:01:40Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Okay then, well unfortunately you’re going to be stuck with the Kanin study, which ends up with the _highest_ estimate of false rape accusations I’ve ever seen anyone seriously cite. > … > That study has been criticized, for reasons I think are weak, but you can judge for yourself. I would link them but not sure how much text I’m allowed to quote, so i’ll give you the link here. > > [False accusation of rape - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_accusation_of_rape) No, I’m not going to be stuck with that study. I’ll take the hundreds of others that indicate a rate of 2-10%. As a scientist and not someone looking to justify my own desires for an 18 year old i can take care of, I find the criticisms of that study very strong. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/502 "2017-11-11T16:23:50Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > It can be really exciting to guide, nurture, care for, lead, and sort of take on a quasi-parental role for someone … … and this is creepy when combined with a sexual relationship > [@](#): > > The older model of marriage (if you look at, e.g. the old Christian marriage services) was one in which the wife pledged to ‘obey’ her husband. … and this is creepy too > [@](#): > > … but I do think that the best relationships are those where there are a clear ‘leader’ and ‘follower’. … One-hundred percent creepy ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/503 "2017-11-11T17:18:54Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > … and this is creepy when combined with a sexual relationship > > … and this is creepy too > > … One-hundred percent creepy Beat me to it ;). ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/504 "2017-11-11T17:31:23Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > … and this is creepy when combined with a sexual relationship > > … and this is creepy too > > … One-hundred percent creepy > [@Tamerlane](#): > > Beat me to it ;). Indeed, Hector had been making congent arguments, and while I disagree with him/her, as I’ll mention below, those comments, seemingly out of nowhere, are a bit disturbing. If hector wants to expound further, I’ll respectfully give him a listen, but…odd. In regards to the discussion, I would note (as some others have alluded too), that many of the ‘false’ reports (for that matter, the true ones also), are from filed charges or accusations _usually_ made at or near the time of the alleged action. In this case, it was 40 years later and the women did not volunteer to come forward until somebody _asked_ them about it; it is quite likely they would have taken it to their grave and never mentioned it ‘officially’ if some hadn’t come asking questions. So they didn’t file charges or make accusations; they simply responded to questions (and also had friends/family who responded to those questions and backed them up). Maybe not a major thing, but something to take into account, IMHO. YMMV of course. Press on. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/505 "2017-11-11T17:32:53Z")
If I’m an old-time Democrat political boss, I am planning on having Luther Strange write-in promoters at as many polling places as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/506 "2017-11-11T18:02:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think his behavior with the older teenagers was questionable at best, and probably morally wrong considering Moore’s character as revealed by other behavior. > > I think it’s possible for those sorts of age-disparity relationships to be acceptable, but in my experience most of them are not. Most of them, in my experience, are user-used relationships, with extreme power disparities and manipulation. Considering what an asshole Moore has shown himself to be (even before the 14-year-old accuser story), I have little doubt that these would have been similar. > > But these are moral/ethical judgments, not legal judgments. There needs to be a legal line somewhere, and outside of that legal line we shouldn’t prosecute consensual activity. But I’m fine with judging such behavior on moral and ethical terms. Where is your evidence that “most” relationships involving 18- or 19-year old teenagers and older people are harmful to either of the people involved? I obviously can’t argue with “personal experience” but do you have any statistics to back up your moral or ethical views here? Sure there are going to be power disparities, but that’s not inherently a bad thing: some people find the power disparity _in itself_ to be desirable. You’re perfectly free to vote for people based on whatever moral or ethical views you might have: I’m arguing that the content of your moral and ethical views is ill-founded. I am voting straight ticket Democratic next year, after having made the mistake of going third party last year, but if I found out that a much older Democratic candidate (of either sex) was dating an 18 year old it would probably make me slightly more likely to vote for them, not less. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/507 "2017-11-11T18:04:14Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Beat me to it ;). Again, “I find this creepy” is not actually an argument. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/508 "2017-11-11T18:11:10Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > No, I’m not going to be stuck with that study. I’ll take the hundreds of others that indicate a rate of 2-10%. As a scientist and not someone looking to justify my own desires for an 18 year old i can take care of, I find the criticisms of that study very strong. The problem here is that “2-10%” is not even intended to be an estimate of the underlying false accusation rate. It’s intended to be an estimate of the number conclusively shown to be false. A lot of rape accusations are dropped early in the proceedings and never are conclusively shown to be false. If 10% of accusations are shown false, 40% are shown to be true and 50% end up being inconclusive, then the real false accusation rate is 20%. Mind you I think the 14 year old accuser is probably right that Moore assaulted her, because knowing nothing about the case it’s more likely than not. And if so he should face whatever the legal and social penalties he deserved. I’d just set my prior at closer to 60-70% than 90-98%. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/509 "2017-11-11T18:37:55Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Where is your evidence that “most” relationships involving 18- or 19-year old teenagers and older people are harmful to either of the people involved? I obviously can’t argue with “personal experience” but do you have any statistics to back up your moral or ethical views here? I’m not even sure how statistics could possibly shed any light on this discussion. > [@](#): > > Sure there are going to be power disparities, but that’s not inherently a bad thing: some people find the power disparity _in itself_ to be desirable. Like others, I find that creepy. I have no illusion that any of this will sway your views; IIRC you hold that various traditional practices that I find morally reprehensible (like that husbands should lead and wives obey, IIRC) as desirable. > [@](#): > > You’re perfectly free to vote for people based on whatever moral or ethical views you might have: I’m arguing that the content of your moral and ethical views is ill-founded. I am voting straight ticket Democratic next year, after having made the mistake of going third party last year, but if I found out that a much older Democratic candidate (of either sex) was dating an 18 year old it would probably make me slightly more likely to vote for them, not less. I find this sentiment highly creepy, and reflects very poorly (and weirdly – _more likely?_) on you. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/510 "2017-11-11T18:48:47Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > IIRC you hold that various traditional practices that I find morally reprehensible (like that husbands should lead and wives obey, IIRC) as desirable I wouldn’t quite put it that way. I think healthy relationships and marriages are best when there are clear “dominant leader” and “obedient follower” role, but I don’t think the leader always has to be the male. I think the modern American model of ‘equal partnerships’ is at least mildly immoral, but I don’t think the superior/inferior distinction always has to follow gendered lines. I’d have no problem with women in their 50s dating 18-year old men either. For the record, I’m anti-liberal (in both the political and social/cultural senses), but wouldn’t call myself a traditionalist either. Most of traditional Christian sexual morality was wrong, and I think 21st century consent-based American sexual ethics are certainly an improvement, I just don’t think they’re all the way correct either. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/511 "2017-11-11T18:55:11Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Again, “I find this creepy” is not actually an argument. It’s evidence that your ideas about the appropriateness of certain kinds of sexual relationships aren’t shared by a lot of people in society. And that’s enough of an argument against a candidate for office. No one has a right to be an elected official. You don’t have to prove that that person’s views or activities or behavior is illegal. Frankly, I could go so far as to say that there could possibly exist a young person who freely chooses to have an intimate relationship with an older person. However, I would hope that such a relationship is based on some degree of equality, freedom, and power in the relationship. As son as you got on that follower and leader stuff, you lost me. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/512 "2017-11-11T18:57:12Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > I think the modern American model of ‘equal partnerships’ is at least mildly immoral I’m sure that this thread doesn’t need this hijack, but I’d be mildly curious to read a thread with a little bit more explication of this notion. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/513 "2017-11-11T19:06:12Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > It’s evidence that your ideas about the appropriateness of certain kinds of sexual relationships aren’t shared by a lot of people in society. > > And that’s enough of an argument against a candidate for office. No one has a right to be an elected official. You don’t have to prove that that person’s views or activities or behavior is illegal.\* > > OK, that’s entirely fair. You can vote for or against someone based on whatever you choose. I would hope though that you wouldn’t, e.g., fire someone who worked for you because you thought the person they were dating was too young. > > \*Frankly, I could go so far as to say that there could possibly exist a young person who freely chooses to have an intimate relationship with an older person. However, I would hope that such a relationship is based on some degree of equality, freedom, and power in the relationship. As son as you got on that follower and leader stuff, you lost me. I’m aware I have a minority view in 21st century America, yes. Obviously I think I’m right and you’re wrong, but clearly your opinion differs. I’m not going to make the case that “age is just a number” though, it certainly isn’t. Any kind of large age differences are going to involve huge differences in maturity, experience, status, etc… I think those differences can be an actively very positive thing, but if what you want is a world of equality within romantic relationships, it makes a lot of sense for you to be suspicious of large age disparities. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/514 "2017-11-11T19:17:42Z")
Republicans worried about losing, and as usual, are trying to change the rules. They want to [delay the election](http://www.newsweek.com/gop-delay-alabama-election-roy-moore-scandal-708917)so they can replace Moore. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/515 "2017-11-11T19:34:31Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > I’m sure that this thread doesn’t need this hijack, but I’d be mildly curious to read a thread with a little bit more explication of this notion. I promise I’ll get back to you on that but it will require a rather long essay, so I’ll get to that when I have time, hopefully in the next week or so. Probably in a different forum though, maybe IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/516 "2017-11-11T19:34:37Z")
[The AP says that suburban voters are the key to this going Moore’s way or not](https://apnews.com/2519effe930e46a0a9e8e1061e64c509/Will-Alabama-pick-a-Democrat-over-Moore?-Suburbs-will-decide). > [@](#): > > Polls taken before The Washington Post’s story revealing the allegations against Moore showed the Dec. 12 race close or him with a slight lead but with less than 50 percent of the vote, typically a warning sign for Republicans in Alabama. > [@](#): > > The state’s eight most populous counties have almost as many people as the other 59 combined, and those are among the areas where Moore was weakest in the primary against Sen. Luther Strange, appointed to the Senate on an interim basis after Jeff Sessions was elevated to U.S. attorney general. Moore faces Democrat Doug Jones in the general election. > > Former state Republican Party chairman Marty Connors said he expected the impact of the allegations to be concentrated in the suburbs. > > “It will affect what I call your really, really moderate Republican voters,” Connors said. > [@](#): > > “Really and truly, I cannot tell you what I’m going to do right now,” said Carolyn Griffin of Calera, as she watched her dog Loxy exercise at Alabaster’s Veterans Park. > > Griffin is the kind of voter who might be moved by the allegations, and suburban Shelby County is where other likeminded voters are located. While Alabama might be called the Heart of Dixie, much of Shelby County is Anysuburb USA, with subdivisions and strip malls sprawling ever farther south along traffic-choked highways leading out of Birmingham. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/517 "2017-11-11T20:46:56Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Republicans worried about losing, and as usual, are trying to change the rules. They want to [delay the election](http://www.newsweek.com/gop-delay-alabama-election-roy-moore-scandal-708917)so they can replace Moore. Honestly, I think this the best possible outcome. There is no way a Dem is going to win in Alabama. Their base support is barely above 30%. They still lose a three-way race. So at least let them lose because of blatant banana-republic shenanigans by the Republicans. It might help sway some intelligent Republicans who are disgusted by what their party has become. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/518 "2017-11-11T21:12:37Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Honestly, I think this the best possible outcome. There is no way a Dem is going to win in Alabama. Their base support is barely above 30%. They still lose a three-way race. > > So at least let them lose because of blatant banana-republic shenanigans by the Republicans. It might help sway some intelligent Republicans who are disgusted by what their party has become. I dunno. An elected Moore might be the gift that keeps on giving. A truly black card for the R brand, which will further spur liberal - hell SANE - outrage and turnout. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/519 "2017-11-11T21:13:39Z")
> **[Former Moore colleague: ‘Common knowledge’ that he dated high school girls](https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/359939-former-moore-colleague-common-knowledge-that-he-dated-teen/)** > > A former colleague of GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore said Saturday that it was “common knowledge” that the Alabama Republican dated high school girls when he worked in the Etowah C… Former colleague says that it was common knowledge that Moore dated high school students. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2017, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/520 "2017-11-11T22:10:11Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > A truly black card for the R brand, which will further spur liberal - hell SANE - outrage and turnout. Yeah, that’s where it can matter. We hit peak liberal outrage a while ago. But there is still room to grow in Indie and centerish-right outrage. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=27)