# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 55
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1081 "2017-12-12T21:31:10Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > …“Samoans, people say we hate them, but we have eaten their cookies on many occasions.” I laughed. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1082 "2017-12-12T21:41:44Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > So, like a 31% chance of winning? Nate Silver gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. When is the last time a Democrat had that chance of winning in Alabama? > > Honestly, though, if Moore wins, and Republicans get to spend the next year talking about him, I’m not gonna cry too hard. Needless nitpick: [Nate Silver gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/), and he got slammed for putting it that high when [PEC and HuffPo were giving him a 0-2% chance](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html). I actually meant by my post that PredictIt seems pessimistic to me. I think he’s got a better than 31% chance of winning. I guess we’ll know for sure in a few hours though, so not much point in speculating over it. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1083 "2017-12-12T21:42:38Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Honestly, though, if Moore wins, and Republicans get to spend the next year talking about him, I’m not gonna cry too hard. They’re already gaming this. The Republicans in the state legislature are currently trying to push through a bill that would change the manner in which vacant seats are filled. Instead of holding a special election as under the current law, it will allow the governor to appoint someone to fill the remainder of the term. If this passes, Republicans in the Senate can remove Moore from office, reap the PR from this move, and get someone in to gain 2 years of name recognition before the next general election. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1084 "2017-12-12T21:53:27Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > If this passes, Republicans in the Senate can remove Moore from office, reap the PR from this move, and get someone in to gain 2 years of name recognition before the next general election. If they do remove Moore for being an unhinged sexual predator, perhaps they’ll enjoy the view from the moral high ground so much that they’ll head back there to remove another unhinged sexual predator from power. Yeah, I know it won’t happen. I can dream, right? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1085 "2017-12-12T22:06:26Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > They’re already gaming this. The Republicans in the state legislature are currently trying to push through a bill that would change the manner in which vacant seats are filled. Instead of holding a special election as under the current law, it will allow the governor to appoint someone to fill the remainder of the term. > > If this passes, Republicans in the Senate can remove Moore from office, reap the PR from this move, and get someone in to gain 2 years of name recognition before the next general election. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a state legislature has messed with the rules to achieve political goals (see [Massachusetts](http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/sep/24/massachusetts-legislature/massachusetts-legislature-flip-flops-governors-sen/)) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1086 "2017-12-12T22:24:54Z")
MSNBC just showed some exit poll results – I don’t remember all the numbers, but a key one gave me some hope: Favorability/Unfavorability Moore: 46/49 Jones: 48/46 !!! ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1087 "2017-12-12T22:25:12Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > They’re already gaming this. The Republicans in the state legislature are currently trying to push through a bill that would change the manner in which vacant seats are filled. Instead of holding a special election as under the current law, it will allow the governor to appoint someone to fill the remainder of the term. > > If this passes, Republicans in the Senate can remove Moore from office, reap the PR from this move, and get someone in to gain 2 years of name recognition before the next general election. 17th Amendment says (in part) > [@US Constitution](#): > > When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct. Any legal scholars ( **Bricker**?) want to weigh in on if there’s precedent for how long a “temporary appointment” can be? To me, it appears that delaying the election for years would not be consistent with the Constitution. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1088 "2017-12-12T22:42:26Z")
More hopeful exit poll data (from the TV, so no cite): Favorable/Unfavorable Republican party: 43/51 Democratic party: 44/52 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1089 "2017-12-12T22:52:45Z")
From exit polls on TV: 30% of the electorate is black. That’s several points higher than in '12 (the last year they had exit polls). More good news for Jones. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1090 "2017-12-12T22:52:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > More hopeful exit poll data (from the TV, so no cite): > > Favorable/Unfavorable > > Republican party: 43/51 > > Democratic party: 44/52 That one doesn’t look so great… :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1091 "2017-12-12T22:53:45Z")
PredictIt has been moving towards Jones the last half hour or so – now up to about 40% for Jones. Bettors must be thinking the exit poll numbers are more favorable for Jones than they felt before. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1092 "2017-12-12T22:58:27Z")
> [@Sunny\_Daze](#): > > That one doesn’t look so great… :dubious: It’s very surprising to me that the Alabama favorabilities are essentially the same for both parties. If that holds up, Jones only needs a few % of Republicans disgusted by Moore to win. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1093 "2017-12-12T22:59:06Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Some of what Moore didn’t wasn’t illegal, just really inappropriate. > > But the 14 year old, the 15 year olds (I believe there were 15 year olds) and the attempted rape of the 16 year old were all crimes. > [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > \*Consensual \*sex. I was (if you will note) very specifically responding to the statement by **Dr Deth** that having sex with a 16 y.o. was statutory rape, which, as an officer of the law, he knew better than to commit. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1094 "2017-12-12T23:18:33Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Different God, silly. Same God, different Prophet. ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1095 "2017-12-12T23:22:49Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > 17th Amendment says (in part) > Any legal scholars ( **Bricker**?) want to weigh in on if there’s precedent for how long a “temporary appointment” can be? To me, it appears that delaying the election for years would not be consistent with the Constitution. I’d be dumbfounded if it cold go past the original term expiration. I’d be quite surprised if it could go past the next regular two-year election for Representatives when all voters would be going to the polls. I suspect it would hard to successfully challenge not holding it before then. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1096 "2017-12-12T23:39:07Z")
While we’re waiting for the polls to close… Do people in Alabama call themselves Alabamians or Alabamans? I keep seeing the former in print, but I would have thought it was the latter. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1097 "2017-12-12T23:44:31Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > While we’re waiting for the polls to close… > > Do people in Alabama call themselves Alabamians or Alabamans? I keep seeing the former in print, but I would have thought it was the latter. I think we should just chalk it up to one of the mysteries of flyover country that the MSM will never understand 😉 Serious answer though: I thought it was the latter as well. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1098 "2017-12-12T23:46:15Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > I’d be dumbfounded if it cold go past the original term expiration. I’d be quite surprised if it could go past the next regular two-year election for Representatives when all voters would be going to the polls. I suspect it would hard to successfully challenge not holding it before then. There might be some edge case where the office is vacated / temporary appointee named just a few days / weeks before the election that I could reasonable see it stretching a little bit beyond two years. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2017, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1099 "2017-12-12T23:56:42Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > While we’re waiting for the polls to close… > > Do people in Alabama call themselves Alabamians or Alabamans? I keep seeing the former in print, but I would have thought it was the latter. I used to have a neighbor from there, and his little boy called the state “Amabama,” so I guess the people are Amabamans. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1100 "2017-12-13T00:03:16Z")
Come on, Alabama. Let’s keep Molester Claus out of the Senate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=54) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=56)