# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 57
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1121 "2017-12-13T01:08:06Z")
> [@GreysonCarlisle](#): > > [NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones) has some early results posted. And it’s Doug Jones off to an early lead, nearly tripling Roy Moore’s vote total!!! ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1122 "2017-12-13T01:09:48Z")
And now he’s done it, folks! He’s tripled Moore’s vote total! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1123 "2017-12-13T01:21:19Z")
Actually, I wasn’t referring to Trump as supporting the abortion industry, even though he does. I was referring to Moore. Because what do you think happens when you sexually prey upon teens? ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1124 "2017-12-13T01:25:56Z")
Some musings on the results, whatever they may be. Either way, I think, Republicans are not going to come out of this happy. If Jones wins, well…it’s pretty obvious, and has been covered many a time. If Moore wins, then the Senate Republicans have to decide what to do about him. They can seat him without restrictions, they can send him to the ethics committee, they can even, apparently, refuse to seat him at all. There are reports of a private meeting of Republican senators tomorrow at 10AM. Leaving all that aside, Moore will, most likely, join with the paleoconservative Tea Party group - the group of ideologically driven, uncompromising people who have already bedeviled the Republican majority. Basically, he ain’t gonna play ball, and will form part of a bloc completely unwilling to compromise on any of their…principles. He’s a total newbie, as well, with few possible allies, personally objectionable to many of the sitting senators. He doesn’t know how things work, he has nobody working for him who knows how things work, and I doubt he’ll get too many of his fellow senators willing to tell him where the toilets are, much less help him integrate. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1125 "2017-12-13T01:28:49Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > And it’s Doug Jones off to an early lead, nearly tripling Roy Moore’s vote total!!! Interesting they have “best estimate” of Jones winning by .1%. 😉 wonder how good the exit polling analysis they have is. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1126 "2017-12-13T01:35:49Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > No, you made most of that up. He never said that. You’re not telling the truth here. Do you have some kind of “get out of sin free” card for that? That’s enough of the ‘you made that up’ nonsense. This thread is liable to get heated. So everyone on their best behavior, please. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1127 "2017-12-13T01:41:21Z")
Something has PredictIt bettors spooked in favor of Jones – he’s up to about 42 or 44. Very volatile, but bettors are moving in favor of Jones over the last half hour. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1128 "2017-12-13T01:43:12Z")
PredictIt almost at 50-50 as we speak. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1129 "2017-12-13T01:44:32Z")
> [@GreysonCarlisle](#): > > [NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones) has some early results posted. Thank you. That is what I was looking for. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1130 "2017-12-13T01:44:57Z")
I have PTSD from November 2016. I think I’ll check in about 4 hours from now. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1131 "2017-12-13T01:45:21Z")
PredictIt has Jones up to 56. WOW. Not sure what’s driving this optimism. It was as low as 24 or so this morning for Jones. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1132 "2017-12-13T01:47:30Z")
Whatever the outcome, the numbers coming out of the Alabama electorate are – or should be – sphincter-tightening for Republicans. The fact that Democrats have closed the gap from a 30 point Trump victory, safe-seat special election to a nail biter, is astonishing. It means a repudiation of Bannon/Trump style politics. It means a Democratic wave for the 2018 mid-terms. That’s going to change some minds re issues such as impeachment, should it become a concern sometime during 2018. I think the turnout numbers favor Jones. Women, blacks, people admitting that inside the privacy of the voting booth they voted for a write-in, or even for Doug Jones. My call: Jones, by 3 points. Maybe more. (Not Moore.) A glass of wine makes me brave. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1133 "2017-12-13T01:48:19Z")
[A pretty good results tracker here.](https://www.politico.com/interactives/elections/2017/alabama/special-election/dec-12/) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1134 "2017-12-13T01:48:56Z")
I have a bit of hope but I’m still not making a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1135 "2017-12-13T01:52:40Z")
PredictIt has swung back to Moore about 60-40 or so. I’ll try and stop checking it every few minutes since it’s so volatile. ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1136 "2017-12-13T01:55:13Z")
Limestone and Houston counties have been counting like Santa’s little elves. They’re both about 2:1 Republican. Most other counties have barely reported. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1137 "2017-12-13T01:58:13Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I have PTSD from November 2016. I think I’ll check in about 4 hours from now. No fucking joke! Agghh. Knot in stomach. I don’t think I ever even noticed a Senatorial race before. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1138 "2017-12-13T01:58:32Z")
PredictIt is breaking for Moore, up to 80/20. NYT prediction is slowly swinging toward Moore as well. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1139 "2017-12-13T01:59:24Z")
Still early, Moore leads but that was expected, many of the smaller, more rural and less populous counties will report first and they go heavily for the Republicans. The NYT is showing only 1 of 172 precincts in Birmingham reporting and similar small returns from Huntsville, Tuscaloosa and Mobile. We’ll see what happens when the big cities start reporting ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1140 "2017-12-13T02:00:41Z")
I get the feeling that had a regular-issue Alabama Republican a-la-Sessions been running, against someone as liberal for the constituency as Jones is, this race would have been an utter snorer, a foregone conclusion. But put in Moore with his history of getting booted out of office for thinking that election gives you the right to do whatever you want, yet coming back AND being reelected, only to get booted again, and then throw in the teen poaching, and things got interesting. I’d still say that a Jones win would be an upset. It’s not so much Moore’s as the paleocons’ race to lose and while they may wish they had a different standard-bearer, they’ll go with him if they have to for the seat’s sake. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=56) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=58)