# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 59
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1161 "2017-12-13T02:54:37Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Looking at the NYT totals, the large majority of the smaller, rural counties are complete, which is where much of Moore’s support is. A lot of the remaining vote is from Birmingham, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville, urban areas where Jones is running well. > > NYT shows 69% chance for Jones at this moment, but it’s flip-flopped so much… I gotta say, the last time I saw that goddamned dial was back last November, when it started at 90% chance of Clinton victory, and over the night dropped and dropped. Fucker is nightmare material. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1162 "2017-12-13T02:56:12Z")
From the 538 feed: > [@](#): > > Coverage And Results 6:01 PM > By FiveThirtyEight > David Wasserman 9:55 PM > Right now, Jones is down around 36,000 votes with 71 percent of precincts reporting statewide. Montgomery County is the biggest vote trove remaining for Jones, with all Selma and much of Birmingham still remaining for him as well. Moore has some good areas left, including Baldwin County outside Mobile. I’m not convinced Jones’s current leads in Birmingham and Mobile are going to stay as wide as they are when more precincts report. It all adds up to a photo finish. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1163 "2017-12-13T02:56:13Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Looking at the NYT totals, the large majority of the smaller, rural counties are complete, which is where much of Moore’s support is. A lot of the remaining vote is from Birmingham, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville, urban areas where Jones is running well. > > NYT shows 69% chance for Jones at this moment, but it’s flip-flopped so much… I really don’t know what they’re basing it on. I hope like hell they’re right and would love to be wrong on this, but everything I’m seeing now is looking more and more like a Moore win. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1164 "2017-12-13T02:58:55Z")
I’m reading that, if Moore loses, Bannon will blame McConnell. I think we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the GOP. And of course if Moore wins then the GOP will be called the pro-pedophilia party forevermore. Fun times. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1165 "2017-12-13T03:01:11Z")
By the way, if the margin of victory is 0.5% or less, it’s an automatic recount. Hope not, one way or the other, I don’t think my nerves can take it. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1166 "2017-12-13T03:02:07Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I’m reading that, if Moore loses, Bannon will blame McConnell. I think we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the GOP. > > And of course if Moore wins then the GOP will be called the pro-pedophilia party forevermore. Fun times. Love your sig line. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1167 "2017-12-13T03:04:43Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Love your sig line. But other than that he’s a fine person. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1168 "2017-12-13T03:05:26Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > … I think we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the GOP. … The wild flights of fantasy that I get exposed to here are the stuff of legends. I read an article after the November 2017 elections that said something like ‘Dems went from the window ledge to giddy’. That’s the feeling I get from reading posts here too. ETA: The GOP is at just about the peak of power it’s held in _decades_, but you think tonight might be “the beginning of the end”? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1169 "2017-12-13T03:05:57Z")
With 77% in Jones is in the lead by 3,000 votes ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1170 "2017-12-13T03:06:09Z")
Moore now up by only .7%, and most of the remaining counties have been swinging for Jones. > [@](#): > > Harry Enten 10:04 PM > What are we waiting for? We still have more than half of Jefferson County, Mobile County and Montgomery County out. That’s good for Jones. We also have all of Dallas County out. Also good for Jones. There’s still more than half of Baldwin County out. That’s good for Moore. The count at this time is very close. Hold on. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1171 "2017-12-13T03:08:01Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > With 77% in Jones is in the lead by 3,000 votes Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! Pretty much all gravy from here. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1172 "2017-12-13T03:09:45Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The wild flights of fantasy that I get exposed to here are the stuff of legends. I read an article after the November 2017 elections that said something like ‘Dems went from the window ledge to giddy’. That’s the feeling I get from reading posts here I hope the giddy feeling distracts you from having to think about how the GOP nominated a child molester for Senate. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1173 "2017-12-13T03:10:08Z")
Still to early to say anything except that it’s extremely close. And shame on almost half of Alabama voters for supporting a guy who said that the last time America was great was during slavery. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1174 "2017-12-13T03:10:09Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! > > Pretty much all gravy from here. 😃 This strange feeling…is it optimism? In 2017? ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1175 "2017-12-13T03:13:05Z")
Great time for a hairball, cat. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1176 "2017-12-13T03:13:26Z")
Well I’ll be…this could be an early Christmas present to humanity. I did see that Talladega County, normally a good indicator of the state, had the vote nearly split. A potentially bigger indicator was Mitch McConnell saying that he wouldn’t seat the new senator until after the new year to preserve his tax bill. I just wonder how long he would hold out a duly-elected Senator. I mean he did block a vote on the SCOTUS and got away with it. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1177 "2017-12-13T03:14:58Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > ETA: The GOP is at just about the peak of power it’s held in _decades_, but you think tonight might be “the beginning of the end”? And what do they do with that power? They nominate child molesters and fuck over the middle class. Win or lose, the margin in ALABAMA shifted almost 30 points toward the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1178 "2017-12-13T03:15:12Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Well I’ll be…this could be an early Christmas present to humanity. > > I did see that Talladega County, normally a good indicator of the state, had the vote nearly split. A potentially bigger indicator was Mitch McConnell saying that he wouldn’t seat the new senator until after the new year to preserve his tax bill. I just wonder how long he would hold out a duly-elected Senator. I mean he did block a vote on the SCOTUS and got away with it. The (tax bill) vote is probably going to happen before the results of this election are even certified, but I don’t think it makes a difference anyways. Isn’t a non-vote just as good as a “no” vote for purposes of whether the GOP passes the bill or not? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1179 "2017-12-13T03:15:25Z")
About 320 precincts left to report, and 90% of them are in Birmingham, Mobile and Montgomery, all of which has been heavy for Jones. NYT is at 84% chance for Jones to win. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2017, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1180 "2017-12-13T03:15:38Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Well I’ll be…this could be an early Christmas present to humanity. > > I did see that Talladega County, normally a good indicator of the state, had the vote nearly split. A potentially bigger indicator was Mitch McConnell saying that he wouldn’t seat the new senator until after the new year to preserve his tax bill. I just wonder how long he would hold out a duly-elected Senator. I mean he did block a vote on the SCOTUS and got away with it. Yertle doesn’t have to do very much either way. I’d expect a call for a recount either way, doubly so if Jones wins, and tactics similar to those used in Minnesota after the 2008 election to delay seating Jones as long as possible. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=58) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=60)