# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/121 "2017-09-29T00:41:18Z")
Why are you afraid of a _liberal_ court ignoring the Second Amendment? The biggest attack against the Second Amendment in our nation’s history was made by Ronald Reagan. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/122 "2017-09-29T10:45:13Z")
> [@EndlessEntropy](#): > > Looks like the Republican frontrunner, Roy Moore, has issues with a suspension, ethics codes violations, interference, and authority abuse. Doug Jones looks like a solid choice for the Democrats and if the turnout is favorable for Democrats and underwhelming for the Republicans, maybe the Democrats can win. > > What will it take for a W? This would be an upset of the century. Its not going to happen. A better question is what happens if Trump gets 60 votes for his agenda. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/123 "2017-09-29T11:12:06Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > I am not afraid of the Second Amendment being “overturned”. It will stay in the Constitution. I am quite wary of Second Amendment being ignored by the Congress when passing laws and the liberal-packed Supreme Court confirming those laws. And that is MUCH more likely than gays being locked up. Seriously debatable, given that in many states gay people can still be fired for being gay, can be denied housing for being gay, and can otherwise be denied a whole slew of rights due entirely to their sexual orientation, AND given the large number of Republicans who have expressed opinions similar to Moore’s. On another note: are you fine with Moore’s repeated deliberate violations of the US Constitution? With the list of judicial ethical violations of which he was found guilty? His repeated actions and statements to promote the view that religious views (specifically HIS religious views) should be allowed to pre-empt the law of the land? Do you think those are fit views for someone aspiring to be a lawmaker to hold? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/124 "2017-09-29T11:53:20Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > This would be an upset of the century. Its not going to happen. A better question is what happens if Trump gets 60 votes for his agenda. Right now, PredictIt has Doug Jones with a higher likelihood (around 11%) of beating Moore than the Republicans of getting 60 votes in 2018 (around 8%). If you think that’s wrong, you could make some money. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/125 "2017-09-29T14:50:04Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > This would be an upset of the century. Its not going to happen. A better question is what happens if Trump gets 60 votes for his agenda. Someone should start a thread on that topic. I know I’d participate. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/126 "2017-09-29T14:58:47Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > There is a non-zero chance that all the oxygen molecules in the room you’re in are going to spontaneously concentrate in the opposite corner of the room and you will suffocate. Do you worry about that as well or do you think of it as zero chance? Could you explain the science behind this? :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/127 "2017-09-29T15:09:07Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > Could you explain the science behind this? :smack: > **[Archimedes to Hawking](https://books.google.com/books?id=SQXcpvjcJBUC&pg=PA337&lpg=PA337)** > > Archimedes to Hawking takes the reader on a journey across the centuries as it explores the eponymous physical laws--from Archimedes' Law of Buoyancy and Kepler's Laws of Planetary Motion to Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle and Hubble's Law of... The chances of that happening are extremely low. But non-zero. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/128 "2017-09-29T15:25:39Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > [Archimedes to Hawking: Laws of Science and the Great Minds Behind Them - Clifford Pickover - Google Books](https://books.google.com/books?id=SQXcpvjcJBUC&pg=PA337&lpg=PA337) > > The chances of that happening are extremely low. But non-zero. And you think the odds of gay people being arrested for being gay - something which happens in other countries and which more than one Republican politician has called for in America - is remotely comparable to an event that you’d have to wait 10[sup]80[/sup] the age of the universe to have occur, simply because both numbers are “non-zero”? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/129 "2017-09-29T15:40:34Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > And you think the odds of gay people being arrested for being gay In the US? Zero. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/130 "2017-09-29T15:46:30Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > In the US? Zero. Uh-huh. In what timeframe? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/131 "2017-09-29T15:48:41Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > In the US? Zero. That’s nonsense. All it takes is one bigoted cop, and one asshole judge. A bigoted cop arrests someone who is gay for no good reason and makes up something else (loitering, jaywalking, disorderly conduct, etc.) and an asshole judge then backs him up because the asshole judge wants to stick it to the gays. Do you really think there’s zero chance that this could happen? Roy Moore was a judge already, for God’s sake! You think no cops in Alabama (or elsewhere) ever arrested a gay person for no reason other than that they’re gay? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/132 "2017-09-29T15:50:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > That’s nonsense. All it takes is one bigoted cop, and one asshole judge. A bigoted cop arrests someone who is gay for no good reason and makes up something else (loitering, jaywalking, disorderly conduct, etc.) and an asshole judge then backs him up because the asshole judge wants to stick it to the gays. That’s not the same thing. You saying the justice system can be corrupt in some places some time? Wow, now THAT’s a revelation. You just blew my mind. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/133 "2017-09-29T15:53:45Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > That’s not the same thing. You saying the justice system can be corrupt in some places some time? Wow, now THAT’s a revelation. You just blew my mind. Supporting bigoted Senators legitimizes and assists that sort of corruption. It makes it more likely other bigoted judges will be elected, and they’ll back up bigoted cops. Putting bigots in power assists bigotry. You are assisting bigotry. Please stop assisting bigotry. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/134 "2017-09-29T15:57:09Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > That’s not the same thing. You saying the justice system can be corrupt in some places some time? Wow, now THAT’s a revelation. You just blew my mind. Now get enough Roy Moores together in a deep red state - say, Alabama or Oklahoma - and fill the legislature with them. Laws get passed. Sure, there’d be challenges by the ACLU and others and the laws would probably eventually fail to pass muster in the courts but you’d still have a period of gay people being legally locked up. While still unlikely, this is a far cry from “zero probability” and a helluva lot more probable than your other example. All you’re doing is saying “It can’t happen here”… in a country where the President recently praised neo-Nazis. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/135 "2017-09-29T16:04:51Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Now get enough Roy Moores together in a deep red state - say, Alabama or Oklahoma - and fill the legislature with them. Laws get passed. > > Sure, there’d be challenges by the ACLU and others and the laws would probably eventually fail to pass muster in the courts but you’d still have a period of gay people being legally locked up. While still unlikely, this is a far cry from “zero probability” and a helluva lot more probable than your other example. A tiny tiny probability is a tiny tiny probability. > [@](#): > > All you’re doing is saying “It can’t happen here”… in a country where the President recently praised neo-Nazis. That’s a huge exaggeration that really doesn’t help your argument. ---
**Author:** ![nate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nate/32/13085_2.png) [@nate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nate)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/136 "2017-09-29T16:05:04Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The chance that we’ll actually start locking up gays (or Muslims or Jews) is very low, true. But _why_ is it very low? It’s very low because most Americans think that such a policy is reprehensible, reprehensible enough that they’d never vote for a politician who held such views. But if everyone voted like you do, then the chances wouldn’t be low any more: It’d be a done deal. In other words, you’re saying that it’s OK that you cast insane votes, because most of the country wouldn’t vote as insanely as you do. > > If you’re not comfortable with everyone else voting for people like Moore, then why are you comfortable with voting for him yourself? Great point. The fact that there is no longer any deal-breakers for conservative voters is alarming. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/137 "2017-09-29T16:36:16Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > A tiny tiny probability is a tiny tiny probability. > That’s a huge exaggeration that really doesn’t help your argument. Many non-hateful Germans in the 1930s had your attitude about anti-semitism. They were willing to support an anti-semitic politician for other reasons. Maybe we should learn from them, and support of hateful policies should be anathema? Even if the chances are small that it could get further, if we make sure to not support hateful politicians, then those chances go to zero. Why not help make those chances zero instead of non-zero? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/138 "2017-09-29T16:38:23Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > A tiny tiny probability is a tiny tiny probability. > > That’s a huge exaggeration that really doesn’t help your argument. [You were supposed to put the United Way update between those two items](http://dilbert.com/strip/1995-10-02). ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/139 "2017-09-29T16:44:51Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Many non-hateful Germans in the 1930s had your attitude about anti-semitism. They were willing to support an anti-semitic politician for other reasons. Trump is not anti-semitic. Neither is Moore. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2017, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/140 "2017-09-29T16:47:08Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Trump is not anti-semitic. Neither is Moore. Moore is anti-gay, very clearly, as well as anti-Muslim (he doesn’t think Muslims should be allowed to be in Congress, which also makes him anti-first-Amendment). Gay people (and Muslim Americans) aren’t any less worthy of their fellow citizen’s protection as Jews. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=8)