# Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2017, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504 "2017-08-13T00:49:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1481 "2018-01-03T14:14:26Z")
I’m concerned that a national popular vote would increase the hijinks among certain states. Let’s be real, Mississippi and Alabama will always vote for the Republican candidate. You can pencil in their electoral votes in 2020 right now. Whether they get 60% or 70% of the vote in those states is of no consequence. Hence, there is less incentive to manipulate the vote in those states. Now let’s imagine that we go to a national popular vote. Now all of a sudden, election officials in the safest states have plenty of incentive to rig their state’s election. Suppressing the blue vote in the reddest of states is now worth something. If enough red states rig their elections they can tip the presidential race in their favor and there would be little that blue states could do (other than cheat in kind). We’d have an arms race of election rigging set up and the presidency would wind up forever tarnished. I say leave things alone. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1482 "2018-01-03T14:24:54Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Or, perhaps it would be better to start a new thread on this subject? Done and done: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=846106](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=846106) The Moores’ “attorney who is a Jew” says he backed Jones: [http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/03/politics/roy-moore-doug-jones/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/03/politics/roy-moore-doug-jones/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1483 "2018-01-03T16:57:45Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The Moores’ “attorney who is a Jew” says he backed Jones: [http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/03/politics/roy-moore-doug-jones/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/03/politics/roy-moore-doug-jones/index.html) That’s somewhat misleading: > [@](#): > > Richard Jaffe told CNN on Tuesday evening he did not know who Kayla Moore was talking about when she mentioned a Jewish attorney. He described a Washington Post story about his friendship with Jones as “very accurate” and said he had arrived in Washington Tuesday night and planned to go to the Jones’ swearing-in ceremony scheduled for Wednesday. > > “I’ve never represented either Judge Moore or Kayla and do not know if the campaign has a Jewish lawyer,” Jaffe told CNN. “I don’t know who she was referring to.” ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1484 "2018-01-03T18:16:44Z")
[Doug Jones (D) sworn in as Senator from Alabama](https://apnews.com/88eaa55dcfd64fd6b81cb1d047cf9c42/2-Democrats-sworn-in-as-senators,-narrow-GOP-majority). ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1485 "2018-01-03T19:11:48Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > OK, but we’re talking about a once-in-two-centuries crisis, versus a twice-in-16-years event. How long do you want America to last? Setting us up for a major crisis in 100 to 200 years seems like a poor trade-off to avoid minor ones every decade or so. Also, I’m a little confused about your twice in 16 years account. The EV not matching the popular vote isn’t a crisis. It’s just a case where residents of less-populous states get more of a voice in the election of the President _by design_. You can not like it (I don’t like it, either), but it’s not a crisis. Arguably, Florida in 2000 bordered on a crisis, but in hindsight it wasn’t. Florida x 50 would almost certainly be an actual crisis. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1486 "2018-01-03T19:17:07Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > How long do you want America to last? Setting us up for a major crisis in 100 to 200 years seems like a poor trade-off to avoid minor ones every decade or so. > > Also, I’m a little confused about your twice in 16 years account. The EV not matching the popular vote isn’t a crisis. It’s just a case where residents of less-populous states get more of a voice in the election of the President _by design_. You can not like it (I don’t like it, either), but it’s not a crisis. > > Arguably, Florida in 2000 bordered on a crisis, but in hindsight it wasn’t. Florida x 50 would almost certainly be an actual crisis. I completely agree with this and the rest of your analysis. A super close national popular vote would be a complete fiasco and could blow up the country. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1487 "2018-01-03T19:47:41Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [Doug Jones (D) sworn in as Senator from Alabama](https://apnews.com/88eaa55dcfd64fd6b81cb1d047cf9c42/2-Democrats-sworn-in-as-senators,-narrow-GOP-majority). I wasn’t 100% sure this was going to happen. I was expecting some kind of sabotage or dirty tricks. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1488 "2018-01-03T20:24:58Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > How long do you want America to last? I think that’s rather hyperbolic. America survived a freakin’ _civil war_ that killed 620,000 men in a nation that only had about 15 million males of all ages. A crisis of the sort we’re discussing would not rise to that level, to say the least. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1489 "2018-01-03T20:37:24Z")
Please see post 1482 above and the new thread linked there for further discussion of the Electoral College and NPVIC. Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1490 "2018-01-03T22:11:46Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > America survived a freakin’ _civil war_ that killed 620,000 men in a nation that only had about 15 million males of all ages. And we held a presidential election right in the thick of it. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1491 "2018-01-04T00:47:32Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > And we held a presidential election right in the thick of it. A fact I think many people forget. And while one of the candidates was a general from the war, the military didn’t really get involved in the election. A testament to the fact that Democracy in America is a heck of a lot more “solid” than in many other places. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1492 "2018-01-04T02:07:03Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > A fact I think many people forget. And while one of the candidates was a general from the war, the military didn’t really get involved in the election. A testament to the fact that Democracy in America is a heck of a lot more “solid” than in many other places. Minus 11 of 33 states. (Two of those eleven, Louisiana and Tennessee, were Union-controlled and actually held the election, but their electoral votes ultimately went uncounted.) ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1493 "2018-01-04T14:31:22Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Minus 11 of 33 states. (Two of those eleven, Louisiana and Tennessee, were Union-controlled and actually held the election, but their electoral votes ultimately went uncounted.) Yeah, they were participating in what I call “dissentive democracy”, where you stay democratic, but you try to remove yourself from the established process. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1494 "2018-01-04T18:27:58Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I think that’s rather hyperbolic. America survived a freakin’ _civil war_ that killed 620,000 men in a nation that only had about 15 million males of all ages. A crisis of the sort we’re discussing would not rise to that level, to say the least. It might be. If I’ve given the impression that I think a nationwide recount is _likely_ to destroy America, that was unintended, and I agree that would be hyperbolic. I think America will _probably_ be fine through that. But the risk is real, and shouldn’t be ignored. I think a national popular vote recount is likely more risky to the country than the combined risk of all the individual state recounts we would not have in the intervening years. It’s like the fallacy that underlies the Martingale betting system, or the collective risk-allocation decisions that underlie the last financial crisis. Reducing the frequency of minor losses by bundling all your bad luck into a single event is not a good idea. I also think it’s a mistake to look at things that America has survived in the past and assume that it will survive in the future. Yes, the Civil War wasn’t the end of us, but _it could have been_. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2018, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1495 "2018-01-04T19:35:31Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Please see post 1482 above and the new thread linked there for further discussion of the Electoral College and NPVIC. Thanks! Oops, I missed this. I will continue any discussion there. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2018, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1496 "2018-01-05T21:47:49Z")
An ugly turn as there is an arson investigation now. The home of Tina Johnson, one of the Roy Moore accusers, burned and she lost all of her belongings. Thankfully neither her or her family were injured. > **[Fire at home of Moore accuser being investigated for arson](https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/367670-fire-at-home-of-moore-accuser-being-investigated-for-arson/)** > > Authorities are investigating as arson a fire at the home of one of the women who had accused former GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore of sexual misconduct.Alabama news outlet AL.com reported tha… ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1497 "2018-01-24T23:49:45Z")
A coda: [https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-house-ends-special-elections-154909073.html](https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-house-ends-special-elections-154909073.html) ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1498 "2018-01-25T00:41:41Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > A coda: [https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-house-ends-special-elections-154909073.html](https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-house-ends-special-elections-154909073.html) Pretend I’m a complete doofus and explain the implications of this to me. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1499 "2018-01-25T00:45:36Z")
Republicans lost so they changed the rules so they won’t lose again. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504/1500 "2018-01-25T01:25:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans lost so they changed the rules so they won’t lose again. Ok. Thx. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-democrats-win-the-alabama-senate-special-election-in-december/793504.md?page=76)