I think it depends on where you put the emphasis.
If the emphasis is on “would not report” and “reluctant to share,” then what you might get is somebody who votes like a partisan but surveys like an undecided.
As opposed to “lying” to the pollster (ie, intentionally saying they’re going to vote for the other guy).
Which might help you make educated guesses about the composition of the undecideds, but …
This is likely to backfire. First of all, while there’s debate over how influential the bandwagon effect really is, it does seem to be a thing – people are more likely to vote for a candidate or party that they perceive as popular. Secondly, voters aren’t the only ones paying attention to the polls; political parties and donors do too, when they’re trying to decide how to allocate resources, and money generally flows to candidates who look like they have a decent chance of winning. So generally, if you want to help a candidate, you should make it known that you’re voting for them.
Remember the 1992 British general election (John Major vs. Neil Kinnock)? Voters wanted the Tory tax cuts and they didn’t like Kinnock’s Welsh accent. But, they were so ashamed of their own prejudice and greed that they told everyone that they were voting Labour. They even told exit pollsters that they had just voted Labour when they had not.
I mentioned the history the UK had with polls, including 1992. Someone disagreed by quoting the last General Election, which was probably the easiest one to predict in living memory.
I’d prefer we didn’t get into a debate about which party’s supporters are more threatened by the other party’s supporters.
Sorry, new to this thread, but… As a liberal in the heart of New Trumpistan (northeast Wyoming), I can’t say I have ever seen anything that strikes me as more orthogonal-to-reality as this statement (anything Trump & Co says excluded). My neighbors are literally advertising (via large flags) a desire for more “liberal tears”.
TRUMP 2020/THE SEQUEL/MAKE THE LIBERALS CRY AGAIN
I literally will NOT discuss my views in public. These people are off the deep end, and proud of it, and when I was younger and dumber, the wrong thing said in the wrong place easily brought a threat of violence.
surprised nobody mentioned the Bradley effect which is similar
Basic idea is some people told pollsters they were voting for Bradley when they did not vote for him because they did not want to be seen as a bigot
It was mentioned in 2008 for Obama. Didn’t happen. (Bradley effect)
I am quite sure, as Kron said above, there are plenty of places where liberals/Dems would be reluctant to advertise their views.
I believe the Bradley Effect is seen as an example of the Shy Voter Effect.
Would you give your true views in a telephone poll or would you be too cautious/afraid?
I was interested in this claim, so I went back and checked the 2016 polls. Here is what I found:
| State | Trafalgar | Result | Trump Lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | T+4 | T+1.2 | 2.3 |
| PA | T+1 | T+0.7 | 0.3 |
| NC | T+5 | T+3.7 | 1.3 |
| MI | T+2 | T+0.3 | 1.7 |
| OH | T+5 | T+8.1 | -3.1 |
So other than Ohio, Trafalgar was off in Trump’s direction even in 2016. I guess you could give them credit for being wrong on the correct side, but for states like PA and MI which were essentially tied I’m not sure how much that counts for.
A quick spot check shows that most of their success was in pushing undecided voters out. An example: in their final NC poll they had only 3% undecided while the final NYT poll had 9% (and a tied race). Clearly most of that 9% were Trump voters.
That doesn’t really apply as much this year because nobody has very many undecided voters in their sample (and some cases Trafalgar seems to actually have more than other polls).
It makes a lot more logical sense to me that a “shy” voter would say “undecided” than that they would claim to be voting for the opposition. So in that case I agree that a pollster that can focus on anonymity and really push for a preference response could get more accurate results.
I would have no problem with that.
I’m also imagining a situation at home, where hubby / brother / father can hear what you’re saying on the phone…
In my unscientific, anecdotal experience, I can well imagine that the Biden voter in a Trumpian household is going to face a whole lot more issues than the reverse.