# Can the GOP Nomination Go To the Convention? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 8, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793 "2012-01-08T03:51:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/1 "2012-01-08T03:51:06Z")
If both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich win enough states to deny Mitt Romney a majority of delegates without getting a majority of themselves can the nominating contest go all the way to the convention? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/2 "2012-01-08T03:53:40Z")
When was the last time either major party had a real convention floor-fight? 1968? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/3 "2012-01-08T03:55:14Z")
I’d be pretty surprised if the GOP nomination fight went to the end of January, so no. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/4 "2012-01-08T04:30:17Z")
I’d be pretty surprised if they win any states. OK, that’s exaggerated. Still, I’ve been saying all year that Romney would be the nominee. It’s already over. He wasn’t expected to win conservative Iowa. He did. He wasn’t expected to contend in conservative South Carolina, and he has a [comfortable lead](http://www.greenvilleonline.com/article/20120107/NEWS/301070022/Romney-s-South-Carolina-lead-firms-up-new-poll). Gingrich is still ahead [in Florida](http://www.politico.com/2012-election/florida/) but Iowa finished him and the actual results won’t look like those numbers. This isn’t fantasy political camp. The race going to the convention is as realistic as 1% Huntsman gaining against Romney. Convention battles don’t happen under the modern primary system. Start with that as your premise and then look at the horse race. It’s over because it was never real to begin with. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/5 "2012-01-08T04:37:18Z")
No. The Republican Party doesn’t want a long contest and the primary/caucus schedule reflects that. In 2008 McCain wrapped things up on March 4, and I think you’ll see Romney lock up the nomination around the same time this year. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/6 "2012-01-08T04:37:33Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > When was the last time either major party had a real convention floor-fight? 1968? The 1976 Republican nomination was undecided until the convention, where Reagan finally conceded to Ford. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2012, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/7 "2012-01-08T13:10:26Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > If both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich win enough states to deny Mitt Romney a majority of delegates without getting a majority of themselves can the nominating contest go all the way to the convention? The answer to this question is actually ‘yes’ due to the way it’s phrased. IF Santorum and Gingrich win enough states to deny Romney a majority of delegates, without getting majorities themselves, THEN it automatically goes to the convention, unless some sort of deal between two of the candidates is struck first that renders the convention itself _pro forma_. And if we could all levitate ourselves at high speeds by sheer power of thought, then we’d have decades longer to deal with global warming, and peak oil would be a prospect as remote as the Magellanic Clouds. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/8 "2012-01-09T01:50:02Z")
Yes, but only if Mitt Romney drops dead. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/9 "2012-01-09T03:29:03Z")
Look, if Romney’s support peaks at 25-33%, then he could conceivably win a plurality of states, but not a majority. Remember that most states are not Winner-Take-All. So I’d put the chances of a convention decision at over 5%. But some of this thinking is quite frankly wishful. If it goes to a convention, Huntsman still won’t win, barring a wildly unexpected revelation or development in the Romney campaign. And it’s getting late for something like that. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/10 "2012-01-09T08:59:07Z")
What is the primary format this year? Don’t the contest become winner-takes-all in the later stages? In that case Romney will will easily near the end and get the necessary delegates. In any case a convention fight is very unlikely. If Romney keeps accumulating wins with 35-40% of the vote, he will gain massive momentum. More and more Republicans will endorse him. The weaker candidates will run out of money. Undecided voters will flock to Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/11 "2012-01-09T15:10:45Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > What is the primary format this year? Don’t the contest become winner-takes-all in the later stages? In that case Romney will will easily near the end and get the necessary delegates. From Wikipedia: > [@](#): > > January 3 – February 4, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, > February 7 – March 24, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates, > April 3, 2012, and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections. It seems pretty obvious that they want to make sure one candidate gets enough delegates for a clear win. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2012, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-the-gop-nomination-go-to-the-convention/608793/12 "2012-01-09T21:05:41Z")
How many of the later states are “true” winner-take-all states, as opposed to each congressional district’s winner getting those 3 delegates and the statewide winner getting the rest? California is a large state, but I’m pretty sure it’s also “solid blue” (i.e. it doesn’t qualify for any statewide delegates above the 10 that every state is guaranteed, since it went for Obama in 2008 and has not had a Republican Governor or Senator, a majority of its House members as Republican, or a majority of either of the state legislature’s houses as Republican, in recent years), so don’t expect the winner in Mary Bono Mack’s district to be the same as the one in Nancy Pelosi’s district. (Does anybody have a link to the 2012 Call to the Convention?)