# Can Trump beat Biden **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [November 8, 2023, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840 "2023-11-08T18:12:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/1 "2023-11-08T18:12:32Z")
There are a few articles like [this NBC News article](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trumps-rivals-say-cant-beat-biden-polls-say-can-rcna123753) showing up indicating that he can. This is disturbing that it could even be close. Is this article and poll representative of the average voter? Do you, dear readers, think it’s possible that Trump (should he be in the general election race) could beat Biden? ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/2 "2023-11-08T18:26:22Z")
I don’t think he can. And regardless of what current polling suggests, I believe Trump has lost support, not gained. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/3 "2023-11-08T18:26:48Z")
Possible, sure. It shouldn’t be if the electorate was rational, but we sadly know they are not. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/4 "2023-11-08T18:28:35Z")
I don’t think the polling much matters. Turnout in 2020 was massive. It won’t be that massive in 2024, but If either party manages to capture even a fraction of that energy, that’s the party that sweeps election night. A lot also boils down to how effective republican voter suppression\* tactics have been since the 2020 election. \*Did I say voter suppression? Gosh, I meant “efforts to improve public confidence in the system.” ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/5 "2023-11-08T18:29:18Z")
[Apparently the poll numbers are being skewed by 22% of Black voters in battleground states favoring Trump.](https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a45752839/trump-leading-biden-poll-numbers/) That guy writes: > I do not believe that the former president\* will get 22 percent of the Black vote. I’d sooner believe he’d get 22 percent of the votes from pixies, elves, and the _Tuatha de Denaan._ ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/6 "2023-11-08T18:31:37Z")
The latest polls and what they mean have been discussed in a couple other trump-related threads. The consensus seems to be that, a year out, polls like these mean very little. Most first-term incumbents look weak in the polls a year before the election, as did Obama, but his negatives weren’t as bad as Biden’s are at this time in Obama’s term. I agree with the OP that the fact that trump appears viable at all, let alone _ **leading** _ in some polls right now, is concerning and disheartening. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/7 "2023-11-08T18:40:05Z")
The election is a long, long way off. In the context of the many, many unknown and largely unpredictable events that will occur in the next year, yeah, sure, a Trump win is entirely plausible. But then so is a Biden blowout. If the question is whether Trump could win a hypothetical election if it were to be held today, that’s a different scenario. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/8 "2023-11-08T19:09:55Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I don’t think he can. And regardless of what current polling suggests, I believe Trump has lost support, not gained. You would think so. By any rational standards, Trump and all of his shenanigans should have put him out of the race. But the way things are going in this country today… > [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > \*Did I say voter suppression? Gosh, I meant “efforts to improve public confidence in the system.” snerk ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/9 "2023-11-08T19:15:54Z")
I think it’s going to come down to these criminal cases. If, Heaven forbid, he is somehow acquitted by the courts before election, it would be seen as an exoneration and he’d probably be unstoppable. People skeptical of his claims of persecution would believe him and he’d likely win a solid victory, maybe even win the popular vote for the first time. Any conviction prior to the election (regardless of whether or not he appeals, and you know he’ll appeal anything) will probably kill any chance he has. I think the election fraud case in DC is the one most likely to lead to a conviction before the election since the judge there shows every sign that a speedy trial is the intention and none of Trump’s shenanigans will be tolerated. The one in Georgia is probably the most dangerous for Trump and his cronies, for a variety of reasons (not least of which a conviction can’t be pardoned, even the governor can’t pardon in that state). But it’s a huge case and complicated, and I doubt it can end before the election. The documents case should be a simple slam dunk but the judge there is screwing everything up, and if she gets replaced I can only see more delays. The NY case might be done before anything else, but it’s a civil trial. While it might lead to indictments of some kind for some people that’s likely way down the line. Anyway, that’s my opinion on what I expect for Trump’s chances. I think he knows that the election hinges on the outcome of these cases (or at least the ability to delay them) and his freedom hinges on winning the election. It’s a vicious interdependent circle. That’s why he’s treating the trials as part of his campaign and making political speeches from the witness stand in New York in defiance of the judge’s orders. ---
**Author:** ![mjmartin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3d9bf3/32.png) [@mjmartin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mjmartin)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/10 "2023-11-08T19:17:15Z")
I think the 2022 elections and the elections yesterday showed that people are tired of Trump’s act. Democrats won in places that on paper they shouldn’t have won in both elections. Anything can happen in a year, but it’s hard to imagine that anything Trump does (like get convicted) will convince any new people to vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/11 "2023-11-08T19:27:43Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > I think it’s going to come down to these criminal cases. One of the polls showed that if Trump were convicted the support would change to Biden. People may be very angry the Israelis right now. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/12 "2023-11-08T19:39:21Z")
Trump can reach the Presidency through the electoral college or, conspiratorially, through intervention by the House of Representatives and the Supreme Court. If defeated in the electoral college, the Republicans can exploit loopholes to orchestrate a ‘legal’ coup by simply prolonging the electoral process in order to pass it to the House. With the experience gained in 2020 and their current dedication to power over governance, they are likely to win. Trump can govern from jail. Pardoning himself would be his greatest media triumph and increase the number of pages he will occupy in the history books. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/13 "2023-11-08T20:00:23Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I don’t think he can. And regardless of what current polling suggests, I believe Trump has lost support, not gained. I agree. Of course- if Biden gets really ill that could change thing- or if trump shows more signs of senility, and it is obvious to all. The real crapshoot is if both pull out. Harris vs deSantis? Harris should win. Note that Bidens war chest is way bigger than trumps. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/14 "2023-11-08T21:14:04Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I don’t think he can. And regardless of what current polling suggests, I believe Trump has lost support, not gained. Trump doesn’t need to gain support if Biden is also losing support – particularly in key states. If Biden had received just 44,000 fewer votes across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin in 2020, the election would have been an Electoral College tie. If the same happened in 2024, Trump would actually win the Electoral College due to reapportionment. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2023, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-trump-beat-biden/992840/15 "2023-11-08T22:09:36Z")
> [@solost](#): > > Most first-term incumbents look weak in the polls a year before the election, as did Obama, but his negatives weren’t as bad as Biden’s are at this time in Obama’s term. There’s hardly a hairsbreadth between them. [![](https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/blog_gallup_biden_november_2023.jpg) ](https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/blog_gallup_biden_november_2023.jpg)