# Can we accurately predict the future, and what are the effects of this **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 14, 2009, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-we-accurately-predict-the-future-and-what-are-the-effects-of-this/513841 "2009-10-14T21:56:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 3\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Alex\_Dubinsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dbc845/32.png) [@Alex\_Dubinsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alex_Dubinsky)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2009, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-we-accurately-predict-the-future-and-what-are-the-effects-of-this/513841/21 "2009-10-17T05:12:49Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I think that the OPs scenario is feasible, but if/when it happens, we’ll be accelerating towards the “technological singularity” anyway, and from our perspective, 21st century man’s perspective, we have no idea where such a process will lead us. Ha, well, maybe _you_ don’t. Ok, here’s the problem: You have some people/models/theories who know their shit and can make predictions. But… you don’t know who they are. So now you have to predict _them_. There’s a lot of noise. A lot of people on TV who don’t know shit but were just easy to call up when the network had an opening in their schedule. There’s so many analysts of the financial markets, and so much chaos. But, that’s discussing the current state of art. Assume we surpass it. Then what? Well, it’s pretty obvious. Knowledge of the future will influence our actions today. And then… we need to re-run the calcs. Then change our actions again, etc. (Let me bring up the financial markets again.) But… as intelligent beings we’ve been doing this from the dawn of time, at least on the smaller and more personal scale. That’s sort of what intelligence _is_. (Isn’t it?) Post-singularity, we’ll either know the future and work tirelessly to create it. Or know the future and relent to our inability to change it. Or never know the future because our thinking will be forever trapped in some sort of paradox where we can’t actually predict our own prediction-swayed behavior. Ahh, dammit, I don’t know what will happen. Except the singularity part. [sub]Unless I stop it \>=)[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![Alex\_Dubinsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dbc845/32.png) [@Alex\_Dubinsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alex_Dubinsky)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2009, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-we-accurately-predict-the-future-and-what-are-the-effects-of-this/513841/22 "2009-10-17T05:13:49Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m not talking about 100% accurate predictions. The intelligence analyst I referenced (Bruce Bruno de Mequita) was investigated by the CIA and found to be accurate 90% of the time, which means 10% of what he predicted never happened. But that doesn’t change the fact that 90% did. Ok, you keep saying that, but I don’t think any of us believe you. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Much of our response to climate change isn’t based on the damage climate change is doing now, it is based on trends in economic growth, industrial growth, growth in greenhouse gases and the effects this will have decades into the future. Honeslty, our current response to climate change isn’t based on anything. We make lots of predictions, but we never both to think about what it is that they actually predict. Yes, climate change will happen. Do you know it will also make the world a greener place (at least at first) because CO2 is plant food and reduces watering requirements? ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2009, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-we-accurately-predict-the-future-and-what-are-the-effects-of-this/513841/23 "2009-10-17T20:04:28Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Yes, we can calculate statistical probabilities. But as mathematics, physics, computer modeling and the social sciences advance we will create more detailed and longer range predictions. > > I’m not talking about 100% accurate predictions. The intelligence analyst I referenced (Bruce Bruno de Mequita) was investigated by the CIA and found to be accurate 90% of the time, which means 10% of what he predicted never happened. But that doesn’t change the fact that 90% did. > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts5MKtXNpMQ](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts5MKtXNpMQ) > > 9/11 was a big deal, but so was the internet. And Ray Kurzweil predicted the internet back in the 1980s based on exponential trends in node growth. > > Much of our response to climate change isn’t based on the damage climate change is doing now, it is based on trends in economic growth, industrial growth, growth in greenhouse gases and the effects this will have decades into the future. It’s pretty interesting stuff. But bear in mind it does not “predict” the future. What it does is give the likelihood of possible outcomes based on certain inputs, variables and decisions. Let’s say for example, I wanted to select the quickest path from point A to point B. In addition to known variables like the distances and speed limit between each node in our transportation network, there are unknown variables like traffic delays caused by road construction, accidents, etc. You can use something like a Monte Carlo simulation to generate thousands of possible combinations of routes and potential traffic conditions (within known constraints) with will produce the path most likely to be the quickest. It may or may not be at any given time, but statistically, that is your best decision. So to answer your question, the way you use these “future predictors” is to aid you in making decisions that will have long-term effects. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-we-accurately-predict-the-future-and-what-are-the-effects-of-this/513841.md?page=1)