Like it or not, elections are marketing campaigns, and the running mate is a key tactic. Naming one who complements the POTUS candidate (male for female, black for white, midwestern for eastern, etc.) isn’t pandering to the base – they’re going to vote Dem anyway. If anything, it’s pandering to the undecided and the unmotivated to show them, hey, you’re represented on this ticket even if the POTUS candidate isn’t exactly your preference.
I’m not sure how this tactic interferes with “paint[ing] one side (the GOP) as dangerously reactionary and extreme.” I’d fully expect the Dem candidates to do that, anyway.
And that was true for Nixon in 1968/1972 since everyone knew Nixon from being Ike’s VP and the 1960 race against JFK. Plus, he was the return to normality after the craziness of Goldwater.
I think Gore helped Bill Clinton, Mondale helped Carter, and Biden helped Obama. Lieberman and Edwards were mistakes. The less said about Ferraro, the better. Bentsen and Kaine were pretty neutral.
Dole was probably a a drawback for Ford with ‘Democrat wars’ Bush definitely helped Reagan similar to how Pence helped Trump, ‘This guy isn’t completely crazy!’ The 88 Bush campaign exiled Quayle to rural Idaho and other such places and even the Jack Kennedy quote didn’t hurt in 88. Kemp hurt Dole by showing how old Dole really was. Cheney was an absolute bizarre pick but even after people knew how awful he was in 2004, it still wasn’t enough to prevent Bush squeaking out a win. Palin, enough said. Ryan was absolutely neutral for Romney, they both looked like business executives announcing layoffs and then record executive bonuses the next day.
Cyically, I’m not sure that how much of a need there is to racially balance the ticket in the general election is as important as you are making it out to be. People of color are certainly an important voting block in the Democratic primary, but I think with or without an African American on the ticket, blacks are going to be well motivated to vote against Trump. The main thing is for the candidate to make it clear that African American concerns are being given serious consideration, as a clear contrast with the present administration. Even more cynically, I would point on that blacks only represent about 10% of the electorate, so even a 10% drop in participation would only equates to a 1% drop overall vote total.
I think the main balancing point should be ideological. Moderate candidates will need someone to motivate voters who might whine that both parties are in the thrall of corporate greed and so they might as well just stay home. Leftist candidates need someone to reassure people who may not be happy with Trump, but might also fear a “Socialist” candidate, who is going to radically change everything.
Several of the Dem candidates are old enough that the selection of a running mate needs to be a bit more serious decision than just balancing the ticket. Especially the ones that have already had a heart attack, or are showing a tendency to ramble.
Tammy Duckworth would be good for practically any of them. If she wants the job - she might not, although I expect that VP would be marginally less demanding than Senator. Assuming whoever is at the top of the ticket wins, which is far from certain.
Maybe it’s not in the spirit of the OP, but Buttigieg would be a good VP pick for pretty much anyone. He is the one of the few with anything resembling charisma in the Dem field.
Apart from him, I wouldn’t pick from any of the also-rans at all. Find a southern governor. Nobody from CA or NY, not needed - those states will go Dem no matter what.
If Biden wins the Democratic presidential nomination, I expect him to pick Amy Klobuchar as his running mate, provided Minnesota will safely elect another Democrat to replace her.
He will see her as the best pick to bring the Midwest to the general election party. Biden takes care of the South, and the Coasts will take care of themselves.
Combine any two of these three and there’s your Dem P/VP ticket. VPs pulled out of thin air don’t always get a lot of ground. Hillary had a good guy, whathisname… Mumbly Joe? Anyway, he was killing Pence in VP debates and it didn’t help.
Mayor Pete is a great guy. But openly gay wont play in peoria in 2020, sadly(I think that by 2028 it wont be that much of a issue). Maybe as veep however. Joe & Pete?
Nonetheless, there was a real drop in AA turnout between 2012 and 2016 - I think it went from ~65% to ~59%. If it had stayed at 65%, we wouldn’t be having this discussion - they’d have tipped PA, MI, and WI.
Could an African-American on the ticket make a difference in getting some AA’s to the polls who might normally be less than likely to vote? I’d expect so.
I did cite Nixon earlier in the thread, but I’m not even sure that I agree totally with that. Maybe the euchre strategy where you count on your partner to take one trick. A good vp nominee shouldn’t hurt you anywhere but can be counted on to pull in or lock down one (usually his own) state.
Although this time around, the Dems will have Barack and Michelle Obama available full time for campaigning. Also, Biden if he’s not on the ticket and Bill Clinton can be quite useful for AA turnout as well.
I don’t see a reason to link Biden’s AA support in the primary with his ability (or lack of it) to inspire AA turnout in the general. They’re two very different things.
Sorry to disenhearten anyone but 1) Veep doesn’t really carry votes, although if bad enough, they might serve as insurance against presidential assassination, and 2) we have no idea yet if a 2020 election will actually occur, and who might survive to run in it. What we HOPE and what we KNOW differ. We don’t know nothing yet IMHO.
We sincerely HOPE for a 2020 national election but we don’t KNOW what could happen by then. Each step here probes uncharted territory. I won’t threadjack to list possible disruptions. But as Brecht said, “The man who laughs has not yet been told the terrible news.”
We also can’t know which Dems can politically and physically survive till the convention. Top-listers right now are Biden, Warren, Sanders - old farts. Bloomberg is another old fart who just might spend enough to matter. But this suggest that any would feel a need for a much younger Veep candidate. Which of the second tier could help them?