Can You Develop P{sychic Abilities By Training?

[quoet]Musicat wrote:
When was the last time you heard of a state lottery in financial trouble because of too many winners?
[/quote]
A state lottery doesn’t care how many winners there are. They take the ticket receipts, keep 40% or so, and put the rest in the pot. They then just divide this pot by however many winners there are. Every single ticket sold could be a winner and it wouldn’t cost the state any more.

**cityboy[/]i, I now realize that he’s taking time’s arrow out, and saying that what we perceive as chance is really precognition at work. I still have the objection that this precognition must be the one who decides the winners and losers, telling most players to buy the wrong numbers so they won’t win, and one or two players the right numbers. But hey, that makes just as much sense as a universe created and controlled by a god. In fact, it seems indistinguishable from the idea that every happening is the result of god’s total control.

Oops, my fingers have lesdyxia this morning.

It appears that devils just assigning a new definition to precognition and a new word to lucky guess. Lucky guesses happen through precognition is what the message apears to be. The two are indistinguishable.

If this is the case, then there is no paranormal psychic ability at work. It’s all normal and adequately described by the rules of probability. devils just had decided to use odd personal definitions of words that already have adequate, and different, definitions.

sophistry it seems

See that button marked “preview”? The cure for aixelsyd! :smiley:

Your point about how the money is split in state lotteries would explain how states avoid the risk of paying out more than they receive, but if more people guessed the correct numbers, the pot would have to be split more ways and the average payout would be less for each. I’m sure lotteries do routine analysis of this sort to try to detect fraud.

Imagine what the outcry would be, as an extreme case, if ALL lottery entrants could tell the winning numbers in advance. Then, each winner/entrant would receive about 40% less than they bet in the first place! How long would that last?

I found this:

http://www.luki.co.uk/results.html

‘There was just 1 jackpot winner from Saturdays draw who won over £ 11 MILLION’

‘16 June 2001
7, 25, 31, 35, 39, 45, Bonus: 8
No of winners Amount per winner Total
Match 6 (Jackpot) 1 £11,157,490.00 £11,157,490.00
Match 5+ Bonus 15 £154,250.00 £2,313,750.00
Match 5 725 £1,994.00 £1,445,650.00
Match 4 43533 £73.00 £3,177,909.00
Match 3 827646 £10.00 £8,276,460.00
Totals 871920 £26,371,259.00’

They give several week’s worth of information, which seems pretty consistent with the results expected by probability theory.

Anyway devilsknew is proposing that his ‘projection’ is effectively identical to the usual random results.

As SimonX rightly says "devils just had decided to use odd personal definitions of words that already have adequate, and different, definitions.

sophistry it seems."

The cite tells how many won but not how many played.

Oh well. I’ll have to take your word for it because I suppose a higher than expected proportion of winners would be noticed, if the portion of players who are psychic exceeded the margin of error that chance would allow.

The prize money is always 50% of the entry. the cost of entry is £1 (I think - of course I’ve never played myself).
So just multiply the total prize money by 2 to get the number of tickets bought.

I don’t htink you understand random chance. It would be possible for all (20 million) entries to be for the exact same set of numbers, and for that set to win. Possible, but unlikely.
There is no such thing as ‘margin of error’.

But let’s look at some results, noting that it is far easier to get three numbers right than it is for four, and so on:

16 Jun

6 right 1
5 + bonus 15
5 725
4 43533
3 827646

13 Jun

6 right 0
5 + bonus 7
5 330
4 20692
3 394653

9 Jun

6 right 3
5 + bonus 10
5 815
4 44217
3 788631

Well there you go. A classical distribution, according to probability theory.
So no evidence for anyhting unusual.

Incredible it took so long for someone to figure out what’s going on here.
I was about to say much the same observation, but with minor congratulations to devilsknew for stirring things up so efficiently with just a linguistic trick. Whether it was intentional or not, I’ll give you benefit of the doubt for doing it on purpose. :stuck_out_tongue:

If however you are genuinely interestrd in pursuing this theory of yours further (which was brilliantly stated at first, but fell apart the more you “explained” it) You’ll love reading
“Quantum Psychology” By Robert Anton Wilson. Especially the bits about backwards causality. Genuinely good book.

As to the argument: to paraphrase the case for the affirmative:

[list=a]
[li]Assume that people participate in games of chance with some (albiet tiny) expectation of winning.[/li][li]Assume that the players choose their numbers with the belief that their choice will help them win. This is a “belief about the future” - a weak prediction of sorts[/li][li]Once the draw is held, the players can be sorted into groups of those whose predictions came true, and those whose didn’t. In retrospect we can see who was right all along.(*)[/li][li]The fact that there are some accurate predictors demonstrates conclusively that accurate predictions can and do happen![/li][/list=a]

That was fun as far as it went, and is, in itself, pretty good logic until you ask questions about which predictions will be true before the event which imbues them with their ‘trueness’. Try to dissect the fallacy in the sentence (*) above without bringing quantum waveforms into the picture.
The “who has the precognitive ability?” and “what happens if?” questions are like that - they assume 1-dimensional time. Altogether correctly, I’ll add.

It’s hard to argue with the central argument: A statement, once proven to be true, must have been true from the start.

the case for the negative:

Unfortunately devilsknew followed up by defining the term ‘precognition’ out of existance, then shattered his follow-up argument into a few years bad luck’s worth of mirror shards.

By the time devilsknew was through with it, a “precognition” was anything that foreshadowed anything else, regardless of whether it was recognised as such at the time. This refusal to identify what is a precognition or isn’t is key in avoiding the uselessness of the new non-word.

In English, Precognition, as in cognition - is about knowlege and requires awareness, Awareness of its application, and awareness of its accuracy. You have to know that you know it. Without this context, it’s merely data. (can’t remember what this theory of knowlege is labelled)

If a time-traveller was to give me the winning lotto numbers on a piece of paper, but failed to tell me what they were, I wouldn’t be cognisant of the winning lotto numbers, I have no knowlege of them, just possession of them. So we are best to count out the random computer factor - it doesn’t know that it’s generating lotto numbers.

Some theories also state that knowlege has to be true. This is a strict interpretation, but easy to argue for once you know how to reference time variables and can handle the following statement:

A guess became an accurate prediction at the time of the draw. Even looking back in retrospect, it was just a guess yet is an accurate prediction.

… See the above-referenced book and the chapter on E-Prime to see how it’s the is word that’s causing us headaches. :dubious:

And to wrap up before I go to bed:

A statement, although now proven to be true, was not known to be true at the time. Hence it was not knowlege or precognition. :smiley: