# Can you tell? \[child's future by age 16\] **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 1, 2020, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344 "2020-02-01T21:02:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/21 "2020-02-03T14:10:25Z")
When my brother was 16 you would have predicted a bleak future. He got a D or F in virtually every high school class (he goofed and got one A in a course that caught his fancy) and the day he graduated HS was a story to be told elsewhere. He worked as a supermarket checker for several months and then joined the Air Force. Four years later he left the AF and decided to go to college. At that time, you could get into Penn State–at least to a satellite campus–if the sum of your SAT quintile and your HS graduation quintile was no more than six. He was in the fifth quintile of his HS class and the first in his SAT, so he got in. Four years later he was a certified computer nerd and had and extremely successful career as a freelance systems analyst. Sadly he died of glioblastoma at 57. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/22 "2020-02-03T14:21:16Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > There are things like the “[marshmallow experiment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment)” that may be somewhat predictive. The child is presented with a marshmallow (or other small treat) and told that if they can wait fifteen minutes, they will get two marshmallows. The test is in delayed gratification. Those who could wait were shown to have better outcomes, although it’s not a perfect predictor. However, later research has cast doubt on the marshmallow test. [Famed impulse control ‘marshmallow test’ fails in new research](https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/jun/01/famed-impulse-control-marshmallow-test-fails-in-new-research) > [@](#): > > “Our results show that once background characteristics of the child and their environment are taken into account, differences in the ability to delay gratification do not necessarily translate into meaningful differences later in life,” Watts said. > > “So, if you looked at our results, you probably would decide that you should not put too much stock in a child’s ability to delay at an early age.” > … > > Our study suggests that the predictive ability of the test should probably not be overstated. In other words, if you are the parent of a four-year-old, and they reach for the marshmallow without waiting, you should not be too concerned.” > > The updated version of the marshmallow test – in which the children were able to choose their own treats, including chocolate – studied 900 children, with the sample adjusted to make it more reflective of US society, including 500 whose mothers had not gone on to higher education. > > Mischel’s original research used children of Stanford University staff, while the followup study included fewer than 50 children from which Mischel and colleagues formed their conclusions. > > Most surprising, according to Tyler, was that the revisited test failed to replicate the links with behaviour that Mischel’s work found, meaning that a child’s ability to resist a sweet treat aged four or five didn’t necessarily lead to a well-adjusted teenager a decade later. > > “We found virtually no correlation between performance on the marshmallow test and a host of adolescent behavioural outcomes. I thought that this was the most surprising finding of the paper,” Watts said. > … > > Robert Coe, professor of education at Durham University, said the marshmallow test had permeated the public conscience because it was a simple experiment with a powerful result. > > “It will never die, despite being debunked, that’s the problem. Parenting books 10 or 20 years from now will still be quoting it, and not the evidence against it,” Coe said. [Why Rich Kids Are So Good at the Marshmallow Test](https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2018/06/marshmallow-test/561779/) \*Affluence—not willpower—seems to be what’s behind some kids’ capacity to delay gratification. \* > [@](#): > > Meanwhile, for kids who come from households headed by parents who are better educated and earn more money, it’s typically easier to delay gratification: Experience tends to tell them that adults have the resources and financial stability to keep the pantry well stocked. And even if these children don’t delay gratification, they can trust that things will all work out in the end—that even if they don’t get the second marshmallow, they can probably count on their parents to take them out for ice cream instead. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/23 "2020-02-03T14:33:48Z")
I’d be interested in seeing where other posters were at 16, if they’d like to share, and how that compares to where they are now. At 16, I was a lazy and mostly unmotivated kid, shy and romantically frustrated, with a loose circle of friends that fell into the “nerd” clique at school. I coasted in class and still got A’s and B’s – enough for the honors classes but not enough to be the very best in the class. I played sports but wasn’t very talented. I didn’t know what I wanted to do when I grew up, and didn’t spend a ton of time thinking about it. I was a nice kid and mostly played by the rules; occasionally ingesting illicit substances with my social circle was the limit of any rebellion. I got along well with my parents and my older brother. Now I think I’m doing fine – I’ve mostly played by the rules and, in my late 30s, I’m in good health, I own a nice home with my wife, and we have no debt aside from the mortgage. ---
**Author:** ![Declanium](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5daacb/32.png) [@Declanium](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declanium)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/24 "2020-02-03T14:49:35Z")
At 16, I was very shy, a good student. Never in trouble. Small group of friends. At 53, I’m a bit more outgoing (came with age). Still a rule follower (never even a traffic ticket). Married with no debt other than mortgage either. I’m thinking that other than perhaps gaining more confidence over the years, I’m of a similar personality to my 16 year old self. So marshmallows and Up series would hold up with me. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/25 "2020-02-03T16:15:02Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’d be interested in seeing where other posters were at 16, if they’d like to share, and how that compares to where they are now. At 16, I was a lazy and mostly unmotivated kid, shy and romantically frustrated, with a loose circle of friends that fell into the “nerd” clique at school. I coasted in class and still got A’s and B’s – enough for the honors classes but not enough to be the very best in the class. Sounds like me, except I didn’t get a lot of As and Bs. I probably wouldn’t have gotten _any,_ except my parents hounded me to do my homework and study. If I didn’t maintain a B-average, I couldn’t get the “good student” insurance discount, and wouldn’t be allowed to drive the family cars. That was a powerful incentive, but still a rather low target. I still managed to get the occasional D, and actually got an F for the final quarter of social studies in my junior year. I went to a four-year college, and turned in similarly lackluster academic performance for the first couple of years studying mechanical engineering. Then something clicked near the end of my sophomore year, and suddenly I found an internal motivation to do good quality work; I began regularly making the Dean’s list, frequently with 4.0 report cards. After receiving my bachelor’s degree I continued on to grad school, earning an MS and a PhD. I doubt that anyone seeing me at 16 would have predicted the path I ended up on. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/26 "2020-02-03T16:54:26Z")
I didn’t learn how to actually work hard until my time in the Navy. In college (physics major) my HS-level coasting wasn’t enough, but I still didn’t exactly work terribly hard (the key, I found, was to actually show up to every class, and then if I did poorly on a test I could go talk to the professor and they’d usually take pity on me because they recognized me and assumed that, as one of the very few students who went to every class, I was actually studying hard), and got mostly B’s with a few C’s. The Navy forced me to work hard – there wasn’t any other option. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/27 "2020-02-03T17:03:48Z")
> [@jtur88](#): > > You can tell better at age six, than at sixteen. First clue is curiosity. Another is social sensitivity – which ones cry when kittens get no pie. Which ones play fair and share things. Those being raised with intellectual discipline will speak English carefully. > > By sixteen, they will indicate earning power, but will mask other traits by already being in social cliques. Yes, 16 is the wrong age for predictions. Adolescents have adolescent issues, which may obscure their real character and potential. Adolescents may be overly shy, or overly rebellious. They may be trying to be cool, or trying to fit in with a peer group. They may have all kinds of ideas they will later discard. That’s why 6-7 years old is a far better age to predict a child’s future. They are still natural enough and open enough to give a good idea of what they are really like, and they will probably revert to that later if they were different during adolescence. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/28 "2020-02-03T17:44:26Z")
> [@Declanium](#): > > Reference Michael Apted’s 7 Up series. Show me the child, and I will show you the man. Wish it weren’t the case but I think it holds true. **Remember, I’m the one who recently discovered that my two teenagers were smoking pot. I’ve adjusted my expectations for their future accordingly.** > [@Declanium](#): > > Studies show that a very good indicator of a “successful life” is if the individual demonstrates self-control at an early age. This is in line with the marshmallow experiment above. Sadly, it’s not possible to really train a child to be more in control, so we’re left with our children’s genetic destiny. My DNA is very “in control,” while my husband is less so. I’ve got two sons and unfortunately they got my husband’s DNA. **My therapist is preparing me to disengage as they will most likely be disappointing to me**. Your therapist is fucked up and if you take that advice you’re going to fuck up your sons. I remember your thread on the subject. You were the one who said you were “done with” your teenage sons because they smoked pot. People here recommended you get counseling and it sounds like that was the wrong idea, if your therapist is recommending you to “disengage” from your \*\*teenage \*\*sons because they smoked pot. What a horrible thing to say. If they turn out to be screw ups and go nowhere in life, it’s not the pot smoking that caused it, it’s that their mother decided they were worthless when they were still teenagers _for the sole reason that they smoked pot_. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/29 "2020-02-03T18:09:17Z")
> [@Declanium](#): > > Reference Michael Apted’s 7 Up series. Show me the child, and I will show you the man. Wish it weren’t the case but I think it holds true. Remember, I’m the one who recently discovered that my two teenagers were smoking pot. I’ve adjusted my expectations for their future accordingly. As far as I can tell, pot use in my college had zero impact on future success, measured 50 years later. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/30 "2020-02-03T19:10:41Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#): > > Your therapist is fucked up and if you take that advice you’re going to fuck up your sons. I remember your thread on the subject. You were the one who said you were “done with” your teenage sons because they smoked pot. People here recommended you get counseling and it sounds like that was the wrong idea, if your therapist is recommending you to “disengage” from your \*\*teenage \*\*sons because they smoked pot. What a horrible thing to say. _If_ that’s what the therapist really said, yes, the therapist is fucked up. I think it’s quite possible that the therapist actually said something along the lines of “You need to let go because your children are their own people, you can’t control everything they do, and sooner or later most children do things that disappoint their parents,” and the poster _interpreted_ it to mean “You need to disengage as they will most likely be disappointing to you.” ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/31 "2020-02-03T20:49:50Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > _If_ that’s what the therapist really said, yes, the therapist is fucked up. I think it’s quite possible that the therapist actually said something along the lines of “You need to let go because your children are their own people, you can’t control everything they do, and sooner or later most children do things that disappoint their parents,” and the poster _interpreted_ it to mean “You need to disengage as they will most likely be disappointing to you.” Perhaps so, but then she is interpreting it as “your children will be a disappointment and you should write them off completely,” which is really screwed up and is not what she should be getting out of therapy. She’s talking about two 15 & 17 year old boys who smoked pot. ---
**Author:** ![Declanium](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5daacb/32.png) [@Declanium](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declanium)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/32 "2020-02-03T20:53:38Z")
Sorry if I don’t view smoking pot as “no big deal” at the ages of 15 and 17. The post was referring to predicting future behavior based upon 16 year old behavior. I was giving an opinion based upon my experiences. My teens are in a bad way and will most probably continue the trajectory. Therapy notwithstanding, my sons will make their choices. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/33 "2020-02-03T20:59:36Z")
> [@Declanium](#): > > Sorry if I don’t view smoking pot as “no big deal” at the ages of 15 and 17. The post was referring to predicting future behavior based upon 16 year old behavior. I was giving an opinion based upon my experiences. My teens are in a bad way and will most probably continue the trajectory. Therapy notwithstanding, my sons will make their choices. You don’t have to view pot smoking as “no big deal” to see that a mother deciding her teenage sons are worthless and a disappointment _just because of the pot smoking_, is really really fucked up. You punish them, ground them, whatever, for breaking your rules. All you have ever posted about them, is that they smoked pot. Have they done anything else to be “in a bad way” that would deserve their mother thinking of them like garbage? I guess since they smoked pot they may end up becoming President one day. Better adjust your expectations. ---
**Author:** ![Declanium](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5daacb/32.png) [@Declanium](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declanium)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/34 "2020-02-03T21:28:59Z")
Here we go. Trotting out the old “But Obama, Clinton and Bush smoked pot!” You ever think that they might be the exceptions, not the rule?! For every Obama, there are probably dozens of others who fail to launch from their couches and watch their plans and dreams slide away. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/35 "2020-02-03T21:45:33Z")
> [@Declanium](#): > > Sorry if I don’t view smoking pot as “no big deal” at the ages of 15 and 17. The post was referring to predicting future behavior based upon 16 year old behavior. I was giving an opinion based upon my experiences. My teens are in a bad way and will most probably continue the trajectory. Therapy notwithstanding, my sons will make their choices. I guess [this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22061595&postcount=163) didn’t last then. ---
**Author:** ![Declanium](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5daacb/32.png) [@Declanium](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declanium)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/36 "2020-02-03T21:58:58Z")
I’m realistic. Once you’ve been getting high at 15, you’re probably always going to be a drug user. Sorry if it offends people here. This refers back to the original post, so we’re not veering off topic. If you’re using drugs at 16, you will always be using drugs. There. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/37 "2020-02-03T22:01:19Z")
What do you base this on? If they grow into adults who drink moderately but don’t smoke dope, is that the same? ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/38 "2020-02-03T22:09:15Z")
> [@Declanium](#): > > Studies show that a very good indicator of a “successful life” is if the individual demonstrates self-control at an early age. This is in line with the marshmallow experiment above. Sadly, it’s not possible to really train a child to be more in control, so we’re left with our children’s genetic destiny. My DNA is very “in control,” while my husband is less so. I’ve got two sons and unfortunately they got my husband’s DNA. My therapist is preparing me to disengage as they will most likely be disappointing to me. People can adapt their behavior based on their environment, they aren’t simple DNA machines rolling toward the future on rails. Maybe they’ll quit smoking when they escape the clear resentment you project towards them and their father? ---
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/39 "2020-02-03T22:18:23Z")
> [@Declanium](#): > > Studies show that a very good indicator of a “successful life” is if the individual demonstrates self-control at an early age. This is in line with the marshmallow experiment above. Sadly, it’s not possible to really train a child to be more in control, so we’re left with our children’s genetic destiny. My DNA is very “in control,” while my husband is less so. I’ve got two sons and unfortunately they got my husband’s DNA. My therapist is preparing me to disengage as they will most likely be disappointing to me. Your sons got that out of control DNA, huh? What if you discovered your husband, as a teen, drank or smoked pot? Disengage or divorce? ---
**Author:** ![Declanium](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5daacb/32.png) [@Declanium](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declanium)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2020, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344/40 "2020-02-03T22:25:16Z")
Husband had a few beers during teenage years, but no drugs. His older brother smoked pot. And yeah, continued to smoke pot. And no, I would not have married his brother. Not a lot in common. (RIP - he passed away two years ago) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-you-tell-childs-future-by-age-16/847344.md?page=3)