Canada and the Coronavirus

7 days later, and BC is definitely experiencing a surge. I expect an announcement about mandatory masking at Universities in BC by tomorrow, Friday at the latest. Possibly students will have to self-declare if they are vaccinated, and get rapid tested if not. A self-declaration is the farthest the administrations will be willing to go. I just hope it’s made clear that there will be serious consequences (expulsion from the university) for lying about vaccination status.

Education workers in Ontario asked to disclose — not prove — their vaccination status

" Teachers, education assistants, and administrative staff, including at elementary schools where most students will be too young to vaccinate, must tell their school board their status and get regular rapid antigen tests if not vaccinated."

Again, I hope the consequences for lying about vaccination status will be immediate dismissal and loss of teaching certification.

Sun LIfe in Canada will be requiring its 12,000 employees returning to the office to be vaccinated.

Our deputy officer of health claimed in the paper that unvaccinated people stand an 80-90 percent chance of catching a contagious Covid variant within six months unless they get vaccinated — that the choice is “between getting vaccinated and getting Covid.”

I think vaccination should be required to attend public events, transportation and services where one would be in close proximity to others. Still, wonder what data he is using to support this claim. It was announced 10,000 doses of Moderna are going to waste locally, since there was not enough interest and no one was organized enough to send them where they could do some good.

Where a lot of claims have come from, which is a combination of “out of his ass” and just assuming a projection. If, for instance, you look at recent growth of the virus and just make an extrapolation over the next six months, you could easily construct some numbers demonstrating his claim.

Projections and predictions are like that. You can make any number of reasonable-sounding assumptions to support any number of predictions.

I was being polite in medical speak. When I say “wonder about the data”, I mean “we all want people to get vaccinated, but not everybody is going to believe this surprising claim”.

That’s better than Kevin Hassett in the US.

In Mar or Apr 2020, the Trump admin was using his figures to announce they projected 0 cases in the US by the end of May 2020. Turns out his “cubic model” was putting numbers into Excel and fitting a cubic polynomial :roll_eyes: - something he’s now found to have been doing for decades on economic projections as well.

Alright Government of Canada where the hell is my August view to the modeling?

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/mathematical-modelling.html

About damn time - https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases-maladies/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/update-covid-19-canada-epidemiology-modelling-20210903-en.pdf

Good News - Slide 2: Deaths/ICU seems to have been severed from raw case counts. Yea us!
Good News - Slide 4: 84 of 12 and Older vaccinated (77% fully)

Bad News - Slide 4: AB/SK vaccination rates
Bad News - Slide 5: Low uptake of vaccinations in the 18-39 age groups.
Bad News - Slide 13: BC/AB/SK/QC potential case paths - especially worrisome with AB/SK vaccination rates

Who knows - Slide 8: Current Rate and “Better Vaccination Rate” Hospitalization both say “may exceed capacity” but it’s worse than the July 30 view which “Better Vaccination” wasn’t. In both situations the modeling seems to lean to heavy loading but no breaking. Of course this is a national view - it could be worse in more exposed provinces.

In the case of SK, not just vax rates but complete and total absence of provincial leadership. The government is currently holding the line on no vaccine or mask mandates but if private businesses want to that’s fine. They’re leaving it up to school boards to make their own policies, presumably so that it’s the school boards’ problem to deal with calls from nutter parents angry about mask policies. Aside from that, it’s all just “we ask people to take personal responsibility” as if the people driving this wave have exhibited the least inclination to voluntarily adopt any mitigation measures whatsoever.

And I can’t even send an angry letter to my MLA, since he’s a member of the opposition. Well I could, but it would be preaching to the choir. I suppose I could write the Premier or the Minister of Health, but they’ve made it crystal clear that they don’t give a flying fuck about urban voters.

Bad news (no slide)
Anti-vaxxers in BC have decided that a reasonable debate about the issues consists of forming a mob in front of a hospital, chanting “Lock her up” with respect to our provincial health officer, shouting, swearing at and spitting on healthcare workers,calling reporters “the enemy of the people” and sending out death threats.

Yes, the Trumpist language was pretty clearly present.

I noticed a great many anti-Trudeau signs in the protest group, despite the fact that the mandates and our healthcare system is under provincial jurisdiction. There seems to be a lot of overlap between the rabidly anti-vax and the far right wing,at least in BC

I heard from my family that some provinces are implementing vaccine certificate checks in public venues like restaurants and theaters. Had to check and it appears to be where things are heading:

I am totally ready for this except that the province’s app won’t load on my phone, so I guess I won’t be eating out unless they accept a screen shot of the QR code.

My parents said they’re getting official cards sent to them as proof of vaccination. The aim is to present those cards upon entry for scanning. I assume the QR codes will be on the cards. I don’t know how to request the cards. I can ask.

I think as long as the QR code will scan, it should work, since it seems it looks up your information in the provincial database.

In practice, the system used in France doesn’t do any personal lookup. As long as the code scans ok, it can be anyones code.

BC is asking you to present your code along with picture ID.

Quebec healthcare workers have until October 15th to get vaccinated, otherwise they will be suspended without pay. The government is serious, and it’s sad that so many healthcare workers aren’t serious.

Here’s to vaccination…

Alberta’s numbers are so bad, close to the last peak before vaccinations were available. I believe the above statement that says you will either get a vaccine, or you will get covid. Then we have the anti maskers and anti vaccine crowd demonstrating at hospitals that are filled to capacity with their stupid brethren. Necessary surgeries are postponed indefinitely because of these nuts who believe “it is their body and they are not hurting anyone.”