# Canada: GovGen dissolves Parliament, Carney drops the writ, and the election is on! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [March 23, 2025, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985 "2025-03-23T19:20:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 37
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/721 "2025-04-29T07:56:59Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > The numbers are a bit wobbly but it seems to me that all parties have lost. > > Liberals might have lost their majority The Liberals didn’t have a majority to start with. Nothing lost. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 7:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/722 "2025-04-29T07:59:46Z")
Yes; a counting chickens before they’ve hatched moment. The Liberals (in all probably) have lost their chance at securing a majority (for this session of Parliament). Same for the Tories too, while they didn’t HAVE a government they have just lost their chance at forming one. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/723 "2025-04-29T08:00:55Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Singh announces resignation. Will PP have the same grace? After ten years of “Liberal mismanagement,” not fucking likely. Buddy’s in total denial. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/724 "2025-04-29T08:06:50Z")
PP can stay on… …as long as he can keep the jackals at bay. Maybe PP can do it without a seat in Parliament, but for how long? PP will be looking for a safe seat where he can dislodge a Tory from as soon as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 8:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/725 "2025-04-29T08:16:20Z")
Pretty sure that a Tory backbencher will resign his or her seat in order to let Poilievre occupy it, thus giving PP a seat in Parliament. It will be a very safe Conservative seat, so should the worst happen(\*), Poilievre should have an easy time to re-election without a hundred candidates on the ballot. (\*) I cannot remember who, but one of the commentators on CTV was saying that minority governments rarely go beyond 12 to 18 months without a coalition. They can, and have, gone on longer; but without the support of another party’s seats (which it is doubtful the Liberals will be able to get without enlisting the BQ), they can collapse before a full term. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 8:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/726 "2025-04-29T08:32:23Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > (\*) I cannot remember who, but one of the commentators on CTV was saying that minority governments rarely go beyond 12 to 18 months without a coalition. They can, and have, gone on longer; but without the support of another party’s seats (which it is doubtful the Liberals will be able to get without enlisting the BQ), they can collapse before a full term. I do not follow Canadian politics closely but I thought Liberal policies were pretty close to the NDP and a coalilition with them would form a majority. Given all the parties are united on what is my far the most important policy there could even be a grand coalition of all the “Pro Canadian Independance” parties. Even if not formalised I expect a minority government to be pretty stable, at least while the threat from Trump remains. ---
**Author:** ![MacDoc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/macdoc/32/18696_2.png) [@MacDoc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacDoc)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 8:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/727 "2025-04-29T08:32:32Z")
Libs 168 and counting 7 seats from NDP 1 from Greens bonus 6 seats too close to call > **[Get live results from the Canadian federal election](https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/)** > > Who will form the next government in Canada? Follow live election results on April 28, with breakdowns from your riding and races across the country. Libs don’t need the Bloc. Canadians don’t do coalitions for reasons unclear. They had a fairly formal arrangement with the NDP which the NDP will cling to as their only input to policy. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/728 "2025-04-29T08:40:00Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > Maybe PP can do it without a seat in Parliament, but for how long? Cue right-wing outrage at an unelected mandarin running a federal party…😃 ---
**Author:** ![MacDoc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/macdoc/32/18696_2.png) [@MacDoc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacDoc)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/729 "2025-04-29T08:45:26Z")
and PP did lose [https://www.cryptopolitan.com/poilievre-loses-seat-to-carneys/](https://www.cryptopolitan.com/poilievre-loses-seat-to-carneys/) ---
**Author:** ![FinsToTheLeft](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finstotheleft/32/2930_2.png) [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/730 "2025-04-29T09:01:37Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Cue right-wing outrage at an unelected mandarin running a federal party…😃 And one who is eligible for a full pension! ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/731 "2025-04-29T09:28:37Z")
Some selected responses to Carney’s win, from a predominantly American RWNJ message board. I’ve included a few responses from non-RWNJs for comparison: > [@](#): > > I love it. Fools in Canada just asked for more of the same failure they’ve been getting for ten years. They are as stupid as California. > [@](#): > > Whoever wins will be the next Governor of the 51st US state. > [@](#): > > Why would we want Canada to be a 51st state? We would never see a republican in office again. Why would we want to import that amount of stupidity? > [@](#): > > Canadians have no use what-so-ever for Trump. I listened to a couple of Mark Carney’s campaign speeches - very fiery, very anti-Trump. > > I don’t blame the Canadians for being angry. Fifty-first state. What hogwash! > [@](#): > > I have nothing but love fro [_sic_] Canada…. But, the American people do not want Canada to become part of the United States AND I respect that the Canadians have no desire to join the Union either. > > \ > > I respect the will of the Canadian people and I hope that everything will work out for them since I do not want to see the Canadian economy suffer and I hope that this tariff issue and current Canadian policies will work out for them as well. I am encouraged by the last two. To post such on that American RWNJ message board took some courage. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/732 "2025-04-29T12:22:37Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Michael Chong is winning his seat by a lot. Back when Harper quit, I signed up to vote for Chong as the new CPC leader. If PP does tank, might Chong make another move to lead the CPC? The CPC won’t eject Poilevre. They’ll run him in a safe riding the first chance they get. He is very popular in the party base, and strategically they aren’t going to drop another leader after one election, that hasn’t worked. They can tell themselves, truthfully, that Poilevre increased the party’s votes and seats. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/733 "2025-04-29T12:23:16Z")
> [@MacDoc](#): > > Canadians don’t do coalitions for reasons unclear. The reason is that in the Westminster system, the junior party in a coalition tends to lose seats in the next election (see:Lib Dems in coalition with Conservatives in UK; Clegg and Cameron). Same can apply, although not necessarily as strongly, with confidence and supply agreements. (See: NDP last night.). The reason seems to be that in minority situations, the populace doesn’t quite trust the larger party, so didn’t give them a majority. But after two years of that party being in power, the voters may be more comfortable with that party and may be willing to give them a vote and not vote for the junior party in the coalition. Plus, there can be a feeling that a vote for the smaller party is really a vote for the larger party, so if you like the policies of the larger party, why not vote for them directly? And if you don’t like the larger party, better to vote for the main opposition party. (See:collapse of NDP vote last night, with both Tories and Grits attracting former NDP voters.) Smaller parties tend not to enter coalitions as a result. ---
**Author:** ![FloatyGimpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/floatygimpy/32/7750_2.png) [@FloatyGimpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FloatyGimpy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/734 "2025-04-29T12:30:41Z")
I’m going in to the lion’s den this morning. Almost everyone I work with is pissed off with the results. One of the brainiacs just posted how she’s so mad there will be “4 more years with that idiot Justin”. These are the people who voted conservative. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/735 "2025-04-29T12:51:28Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Thank you for that interesting bit of insight. You’re welcome. I think @orcenio has worked a poll more recently than I have, so may have more up-to-date info. The main point of the process is to establish proof of regularity for each ballot box. If the initials, counter-foil numbers, or the number of ballots compared to counter-foils, don’t line up properly, that’s likely an indication that something went wrong with that specific location. And if they all do line up, that’s a reassurance that all the procedures were properly followed, and there hasn’t been ballot box stuffing. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/736 "2025-04-29T12:54:58Z")
If the Cons dropped PP they would need a better alternative. I’m not sure I see one at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/737 "2025-04-29T12:58:52Z")
I went to bed knowing Mark Carney had won but it took some digging this morning to find out if the Liberals had a minority or majority government. Looks like 4 seats short of a majority at 168 seats out of 172 required, and with 99% of polls reporting that’s not likely to change. Despite the NDP’s abysmal performance, they do have 7 seats so any deal with the NDP makes the Conservatives and the Bloc irrelevant and the Libs immune to any non-confidence threat. The two remarkable things about this election are the incredible reversal of the Conservative lead and also the dominance of the Liberal and Conservative share of the vote at the expense of the smaller parties. It wasn’t so long ago that the NDP was the official opposition and nearly won enough votes to form a government. Now they barely have party status. Poilievre must be mightily pissed when earlier polls showed him with such a strong lead and now he’s lost his own seat! Hey, dumbass, maybe you shouldn’t have threatened to defund the CBC in order to cut taxes for the rich! > [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > If the Cons dropped PP they would need a better alternative. I’m not sure I see one at the moment. I believe Trump has offered himself! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/738 "2025-04-29T13:08:41Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Poilievre must be mightily pissed when earlier polls showed him with such a strong lead and now he’s lost his own seat! Five party leaders go into a room, only two come out. Canadian election cage-match! ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/739 "2025-04-29T13:18:23Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Poilievre must be mightily pissed when earlier polls showed him with such a strong lead and now he’s lost his own seat! And he was the one calling for an election so badly over the last several months! 🤠 ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2025, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/740 "2025-04-29T13:22:58Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > The two remarkable things about this election are the incredible reversal of the Conservative lead and also the dominance of the Liberal and Conservative share of the vote at the expense of the smaller parties. It wasn’t so long ago that the NDP was the official opposition and nearly won enough votes to form a government. Now they barely have party status. In looking at the increases of Liberal and Conservative votes vs. the NDP losses, it’s clear that a significant portion of the NDP vote went to the Conservatives, which seems counter-intuitive. Whatever happens over the next few years, the NDP is going to have to have a conversation with itself about what this means. > [@Biffster](#): > > And he was the one calling for an election so badly over the last several months! In his defense (and god, does that make my skin crawl), if we had called an election last year when he was demanding such, he’d have won it, almost for certain. Too bad for him, the only thing he could do about it was whine. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985.md?page=36) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985.md?page=38)