# Canada: GovGen dissolves Parliament, Carney drops the writ, and the election is on! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [March 23, 2025, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985 "2025-03-23T19:20:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 41
**Author:** ![Bookkeeper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bookkeeper/32/281_2.png) [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/801 "2025-04-30T03:50:47Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Not a critique of you, but this is slightly inaccurate. The media always gets it wrong, when they say a majority government needs 50% of the seats + 1. > > It’s actually 50% of the seats +2, because of the Speaker. > > The Speaker does not vote, so losing a member to the Speaker’s chair reduces your party strength by one seat. The Speaker does vote in case of a tie, but by long-standing convention his/her vote is not partisan, but must be cast to allow the continuation of debate, or to maintain the status quo. [Speaker of the House of Commons (Canada) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_House_of_Commons_(Canada)#Tie-breaking_votes) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/802 "2025-04-30T03:59:28Z")
Yes, if it’s second reading or a procedural vote, the Speaker will use their vote to allow debate to continue. But if it’s a final vote on a measure, such as third reading, and it’s a tie, the Speaker will vote against the government. The government cannot rely on the neutral Speaker to get its measure across the finish line. Relevant provision of the _Constitution Act, 1867_: > [@](#): > > **Voting in House of Commons** > > **49** Questions arising in the House of Commons shall be decided by a Majority of Voices other than that of the Speaker, and when the Voices are equal, but not otherwise, the Speaker shall have a Vote. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/803 "2025-04-30T16:40:33Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > It’s actually 50% of the seats +2, because of the Speaker. > > The Speaker does not vote, so losing a member to the Speaker’s chair reduces your party strength by one seat. > > If the Liberals had elected 172, and then elected a Liberal as Speaker, they would be down to 171 votes, an exact tie with the total opposition parties. (343 - 1 = 342. 342/2 = 171). The Speaker votes with the government on confidence motions. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/804 "2025-04-30T16:44:23Z")
> [@MacDoc](#): > > The polls were calling for majority and missed. That’s telling. The POLLS did not call for a majority. POLLS measure how many people will vote for a given party. The POLLS were maybe a point or two off, which is well within their stated MOE. ANALYSTS said a majority was likely but not certain. They were in fact reasonably close; analysts like 338 said the Liberals would get somewhere between 160 and 195 seats, and that’s what happened. The midpoint was maybe 180-185, but no one said they were sure they’d get that bang on. Had someone like 338 predicted the Liberals would get roughly 230 seats, or 95, they clearly would have been doing things wrong. 169 is right inside their prediction window. I’m sorry but I do not know why this stuff is hard to understand. ---
**Author:** ![psychonaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/psychonaut/32/4655_2.png) [@psychonaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychonaut)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/805 "2025-04-30T20:35:18Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Not a critique of you, but this is slightly inaccurate. The media always gets it wrong, when they say a majority government needs 50% of the seats + 1. > > It’s actually 50% of the seats +2, because of the Speaker. > > The Speaker does not vote, so losing a member to the Speaker’s chair reduces your party strength by one seat. Not a critique of you, but this is slightly inaccurate. 😉 It’s not unheard of for the Speaker to be a member of the Opposition, and in fact this has happened twice in recent memory—namely, the 39th and 40th Parliaments, from 2006 to 2011, where a Liberal Speaker presided over a Conservative minority government. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/806 "2025-04-30T20:48:41Z")
The US ambassador to Canada, [Pete Hoekstra](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg5qv662j11o.amp), was confirmed today. At one point Canada might have seemed like a less-stressful posting than some others (no offense to our northern neighbors). . But nowadays…. At least it looks like he has prior experience and doesn’t agree with Trump’s “51 State” malarkey. ---
**Author:** ![Scoobysnax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c4cdca/32.png) [@Scoobysnax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scoobysnax)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/807 "2025-04-30T20:59:50Z")
Hey Neighbour! Driving though Manotick before the election, I saw a lot of blue signs in your riding. I was glad to see the final results Tuesday morning. I was able to actually vote for our PM. ---
**Author:** ![Scoobysnax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c4cdca/32.png) [@Scoobysnax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scoobysnax)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/808 "2025-04-30T21:03:08Z")
The polls that I saw had huge margins of error. With several ridings being decided by a handful of votes, like Tera Nova with 12, it isn’t hard to miss the seat count by 5-10. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/809 "2025-04-30T22:27:42Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > In this case I wish that Carney had an unstoppable majority, but in general a minority government is not necessarily a bad thing. With the exception of this election, I strategically vote in the hopes that I will contribute to the making of a minority government. But absolutely not this time, and it actually worries me, not that many voted conservative, but that many voted for PP. That disturbs me. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/810 "2025-04-30T22:38:46Z")
I think that, just like in the US, many people just automatically vote along party lines. I admire my ex-wife, who runs a business and could be considered an automatic Conservative supporter, but has now been 100% behind Mark Carney and, like me, hoping for a Liberal majority. We didn’t get the majority, but Carney has formed the next government and is likely to get the support of the Bloc and probably the NDP as well. In fact, the Trumpster has been an amazing unifying effect for Canada, even if not everyone agreed on who the best leader would be to deal with him. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/811 "2025-04-30T22:58:06Z")
> [@Scoobysnax](#): > > The polls that I saw had huge margins of error. With several ridings being decided by a handful of votes, like Tera Nova with 12, it isn’t hard to miss the seat count by 5-10. But 10 seats is really close. POLLS don’t predict seat allocation. POLLS are of voters. A typical poll would say “45 percent will vote Liberal, 40 percent Tory, 7 percent BQ, 6 percent NDP, 2 percent other.” That is not the percentage of SEATS that will be won. To predict seats, you need many polls, analysis of how vote percentages are expected in different regions and provinces, past results in each riding, and various other elements of analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2025, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/812 "2025-04-30T23:11:26Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > To predict seats, you need many polls, analysis of how vote percentages are expected in different regions and provinces, past results in each riding, and various other elements of analysis. Yeah, it’s super complicated. To do a proper seat projection, you’d need to poll a representative sample of voters _in every riding_. Because in some ridings, the individual candidates might matter more than their parties. That 338 got as close as they did is actually pretty remarkable. The slight miss by the pollsters’ aggregate numbers (slightly under on CPC, slightly over on NDP though both within margin of error) would easily account for the ~15 or so seats 338 was out by. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2025, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/813 "2025-05-01T04:59:23Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > But absolutely not this time, and it actually worries me, not that many voted conservative, but that many voted for PP. Except in own riding apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2025, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/814 "2025-05-01T12:43:57Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The Speaker votes with the government on confidence motions. That’s not what the House of Commons Procedure and Practice manual says: > [@](#): > > When in the Chair, the Speaker embodies the power and authority of the office, strengthened by rule and precedent. He or she must at all times show, and be seen to show, the impartiality required to sustain the trust and goodwill of the House. > … > In order to protect the impartiality of the office, the Speaker abstains from all partisan political activity (for example, by not attending caucus meetings), does not participate in debate[90](https://www.ourcommons.ca/procedure/procedure-and-practice-3/ch_07_1-e.html#footnote-279) and votes only in the event of an equality of voices, normally referred to as the “casting vote” of the Chair.[91](https://www.ourcommons.ca/procedure/procedure-and-practice-3/ch_07_1-e.html#footnote-278) Since 1979, the Speaker, unlike all other Members, has not been assigned a desk in the Chamber; this is a further indication that it has become an established practice that the Speaker has no role whatsoever in debate, whether in the House or in a Committee of the Whole > … > In theory, the Speaker has the same freedom as any other Member to vote in accordance with his or her conscience; however, the exercise of this responsibility could involve the Speaker in partisan debate, which would adversely affect the confidence of the House in his or her impartiality. Therefore, certain conventions have developed as a guide to Speakers (and Chairs in a Committee of the Whole) in the infrequent exercise of the casting vote.[99](https://www.ourcommons.ca/procedure/procedure-and-practice-3/ch_07_1-e.html#footnote-270) **Concisely put, the Speaker normally votes to maintain the status quo**. This entails voting in the following fashion: > > - whenever possible, leaving the matter open for future consideration and allowing for further discussion by the House; > - whenever no further discussion is possible, preserving the possibility that the matter might somehow be brought back in the future and be decided by a majority of the House; and > - leaving a bill in its existing form rather than causing it to be amended. As of 2016, there have been 11 tie votes in the Commons that required the Speaker to give a casting vote. Of those, Speaker Milliken gave 5. In each case, he voted to allow debate to continue. One of those, a vote on a financial matter in 2006, was likely a confidence matter. He voted in favour of the bill at second reading, to allow debate to continue. It may have been a different matter at third reading, since the financial bill was an amendment bill. Based on the third bullet above, voting to preserve the status quo may well have meant that he would have voted Nay. > **[The Speaker of the House - The Speaker and Other Presiding Officers of the...](https://www.ourcommons.ca/procedure/procedure-and-practice-3/ch_07_1-e.html#7-1-3-4)** ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2025, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/815 "2025-05-01T13:11:28Z")
> [@psychonaut](#): > > It’s not unheard of for the Speaker to be a member of the Opposition, and in fact this has happened twice in recent memory—namely, the 39th and 40th Parliaments, from 2006 to 2011, where a Liberal Speaker presided over a Conservative minority government. Ah, but that was a different seat count, which affects the political calculus. 😉 In 2006, Harper was 31 seats short of a majority. In ~~2011~~ 2008 [_fixed typo_], he was 12 seats short. Whether the Speaker came from the Opposition side or the government side would not have made a difference between a majority government and a minority government. The incumbent Liberal Speaker in the previous Parliament had been Peter Milliken, who was already highly respected by the members of the House for his skills as Speaker and his impartiality during the Martin minority government, so he was a strong candidate to be Speaker after the 2006 election. The hypothetical I was giving was what if there’s a really close election? What if the vote count ended up this week with Liberals 172, Opposition parties 171? If the Liberals elected one of their own, they would move from majority to minority. If the Opposition elected one of theirs as Speaker, they would be confirming the government with a majority. What would the political calculus be? Dunno. But there is a precedent. In the New Brunswick election in 2017, there was a hung Parliament. - 25 seats were needed for a majority; - Premier Gallant and the Liberals got 21; - Higgs and the PCs got 22; - People’s Alliance got 3; - Greens got 3. Gallant tried to form a government by discussions with the two smaller parties. When the Assembly was summoned, the first order of business is always the election of a Speaker. Initially, none of the Liberals put their name forward, because they could not afford to lose even one seat, so the other parties withdrew their nominees as well. Eventually, the Liberals agreed to nominate one of their members in order to start the Assembly. But that’s the kind of calculus that goes on in a hung parliament with parties that are close in numbers. (Gallant and the Liberals were defeated on the Throne Speech by Higgs and the other parties; Higgs took office; the Liberal elected as Speaker continued in office for the term of that Assembly.) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2025, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/816 "2025-05-01T13:13:31Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > In 2006, Harper was 31 seats short of a majority. In 2011, he was 12 seats short. The CPC won a majority in 2011. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2025, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/817 "2025-05-01T13:14:16Z")
Quite right; typo; will change to 2008. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2025, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/818 "2025-05-02T00:55:53Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > One of those, a vote on a financial matter in 2006, was likely a confidence matter. He voted in favour of the bill at second reading, to allow debate to continue. Oops - another typo. That should be 2005, not 2006. I went back and checked the Journals. It most definitely was a confidence matter – the budget bill. On second reading the vote was tied so Speaker Milliken voted in favour of second reading, as that sent the bill to committee for further discussion. He stated that he was voting in favour of second reading to allow the debate to continue. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2025, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/819 "2025-05-02T01:17:03Z")
The validated results for Terrebonne, which initially was reported as the Liberal candidate defeating the BQ by 35 votes, has flipped the results to the BQ winning by 44 votes. This is still within the mandatory recount margin. So the Liberals are back down to 168 seats. [https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elections-canada-terrebonne-riding-flips-validation-liberals-bloc-1.7524107](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elections-canada-terrebonne-riding-flips-validation-liberals-bloc-1.7524107) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2025, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985/820 "2025-05-02T18:32:17Z")
Alberta MP resigns seat so Poilievre can stand for election in Alberta. Carney says be-election will be called as soon as possible. Scheer is the Leader of the Opposition in the meantime. > **[Conservative MP gives up seat for Pierre Poilievre to run in byelection](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-gives-up-seat-for-pierre-poilievre-to-run-in-byelection/)** > > A Conservative MP is giving up his seat to allow Pierre Poilievre to run in a byelection after Prime Minister Mark Carney said he’d be ready to call one “as soon as possible.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985.md?page=40) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canada-govgen-dissolves-parliament-carney-drops-the-writ-and-the-election-is-on/1015985.md?page=42)