# Canadian Election Prediction Thread: Contest, With A Real Prize! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 22, 2006, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150 "2006-01-22T21:13:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/1 "2006-01-22T21:13:55Z")
I’m putting this is GD because A) it’s political and B) I’m voting Conservative, so it shouldn’t take long before someone calls me a baby-killing fascist. Tomorrow is election Day. The Conservatives have a steady lead but there’s many things to be decided. The NDP could break through. Will the Liberals do badly, or really badly. How much of their early lead have the Bloc squandered? Who will hold the balance of power? Here’s the game: 1. Predict the number of seats won by each party. The person who is the closest (defined as the person whose delta between their guesses for each party and the actual outcome adds up to the lowest number) wins a $10 gift certificate to Chapters/Indigo, courtesy of RickJay, mailed to you at my expense. If any American friends want to enter and win I will substitute a Borders gift certificate 2. Tell us who you’re voting for and why and who you expect to win locally. I’ll post mine: Conservative 137, Liberal 82, BQ 59, NDP 40. (Note: if I win, the prize goes to the second place contestant. My entry’s just for fun.) I’m voting Conservative because A) I think a change is desperately needed, for both the country and the Liberal Party, B) Paul Martin is an absolute goober and a terrible Prime Minister, and B) I think there is exactly zero chance the Conservatives would do any of the horrible socially regressive things they’re being accused of wanting to do. However, I believe the local Liberal candidate, Navdeep Bains, will win, because A) He got 77% of the vote last time, which is a hell of a lead, B) he’s got a lot of business contacts in the South Asian community, which is big here, and C) he seems like a nice guy. What’s your take? ---
**Author:** ![Sgt.Pepper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Sgt.Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sgt.Pepper)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/2 "2006-01-22T21:19:37Z")
The _Toronto Sun_ has the same contest, but with a different prize. Not that I read _that_ paper or anything. A friend told me about it… I just wanted to add that. I’ll get my guess in later today, and great idea, baby-killing fascist, thanks for adding in a prize. Very kind of you. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/3 "2006-01-22T21:30:10Z")
Conservaties 147 Liberal 76 BQ 58 NDP 27. I’m voting Green, because I dislike the Conservative candidate intensely, don’t want to vote for **this** Liberal government and have an allergy to voting for the NDP. I also am hoping to see a greater variety of voices in Parliament and this is hopefully a step towards that. Although I’m troubled by Green Party Jim Harris personally, I like the “Green Tory” model. I live in Calgary West, so this riding is a foregone conclusion. It will go to The Conservatives and Rob Anders, who is one of the most embarassing MPs in recent memory. When people talk about the American neo-con influence on the (former) Reform and Conservative parties, this is exactly the guy they’re talking about. He’s actually gotten some heat this time around for his ineffectual performance as a representative and frequent AWOL trips during the election (He has never once shown up to a candidates’ debate, to my knowledge). The Liberal candidate has done a good job of taking him on directly on this and other similar issues, but it ain’t happening in this election. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/4 "2006-01-22T21:35:50Z")
conservative 137 liberal 88 bq 59 ndp 34 I think you’ve got a good handle on the conservatives and the bq, but too many of us find the ndp irrelevant. I’m voting for the Liberals and I don’t even like Martin, because of the bullshit he put Chretien through leading up to his leadership, but I don’t blame him for the scandels within the party, so that doesn’t factor into my choice. Economically and socially, the Liberals have a remarkable record that has made our country the envy of the world. Don’t screw with success. I like his plan for post secondary education assistance which I hope will be in place by the time my 14 year old reaches university. I used to like the progressive conservatives, but I believe the alliance/reform have a hidden agenda. Harper may have a nice smile, but you know the song “smiling faces…they don’t tell the truth” ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/5 "2006-01-22T21:36:33Z")
Tories: 149 Grits: 82 Bloq: 60 NDP: 16 Green: 1 Reasons: I think the Tories peaked too soon (or rather, the Ontario vote is shying away again, now that the phrase “Tory majority” is being bandied about). However, I think their support is more solid this time, and Paul’s attack ads are looking tired and desperate, so I think they’ll get the plurality. I think the NDP will pay the traditional price of losing votes for having supported the minority government. Bloq will do well, but I don’t think they’ll get their goal of 50% of the popular vote - I expect the Tories and Grits will split the remaining ~15 Quebec seats. I’ve heard that the Greens are campaigning well in Nunavut, where global warming is actually having an impact, and it’s a small enough riding (in terms of population) that a small swing, plus personal ties, may make the difference. Grits get what’s left, but won’t have a Kim Campbell melt-down, and will form the official opposition. If you don’t mind, I don’t talk about how I’m actually going to vote. Overall, I think the Tories will hold most of the seats in Saskatchewan; Goodale will be re-elected; there’s a chance the Grits will pick up the northern seat, which is traditionally a left-leaning seat that went Tory in 2004 because the former Liberal incumbent ran as an independent. Don’t know if the NDP have any chance of picking up a seat. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/6 "2006-01-22T21:39:01Z")
oh, and a second vote of thanks to the fascist baby-killer! ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/7 "2006-01-22T22:21:20Z")
I’m in the US. I think I’d vote NDP if I had the option. Usually, I’d vote Liberal. Conservative: 147 Lib 88 BQ: 52 NDP: 21 ---
**Author:** ![Sgt.Pepper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Sgt.Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sgt.Pepper)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/8 "2006-01-22T22:28:50Z")
Okay, this will seem out there, but I think we’re in for a surprise tomorrow or Tuesday. Liberals: 112 Conservatives: 107 BQ: 58 NDP: 31 I’ll be voting NDP or Green, if there’s a Green candidate in my area. I still have to go over some summery’s of the campaign to see what the NDP support. If I like what they say, they’ll get my vote, if not I’ll see what the Green have to offer, and if there’s a candidate in my area. If I don’t like them, I’ll go Liberal. Conservatives are my last choice because I’m afraid of a religious right moral attitude appearing in this country. Oh, and the soldiers on the streets, with GUNS! Liberal’s are my second to last because I think Paul Martin is losing it, he’s been getting more and more flakey as the campaign went on. It’s just some things like the handgun ban have me questioning them. And I chose NDP because Layton brainwashed me during that last english debate. I would rather avoid the Conservatives and the Liberals, so that leave’s the “third choice”. Well, I see some predictions here have a greater NDP presence. I should have made that number higher, but it’s in stone now. But I do think there will be some surprises tomorrow and that’s why I predict a Liberal minority. Plus, I really want that prize, so I got to make a long shot guess to make sure I’m the only one who’ll get it, if my prediction is right. Thanks again **Rickjay** for starting this and offering the prize. ---
**Author:** ![Sgt.Pepper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Sgt.Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sgt.Pepper)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/9 "2006-01-22T22:54:07Z")
Oh, and I meant to add: **Rickjay** , you have 10 extra seats in your prediction. Wanna inform the rest of the country if your gonna start changing things on us? 😃 I only noticed because I added it up to figure out the number of seats, then had to look it up anyway. I’m terribly ignorant when it comes to politics, but this election has gotten me interested. So this thread actually helped me learn a little bit more. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2006, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/10 "2006-01-22T23:59:34Z")
> [@Sgt.Pepper](#): > > Oh, and I meant to add: **Rickjay** , you have 10 extra seats in your prediction. Wanna inform the rest of the country if your gonna start changing things on us? Remember, the prize goes to whomever is closest; technically you don’t have to add it up to 308 🙂 Actually, I made a typo; the NDP should be at 30, not 40. Note: Entries may be posted up to 9:30 PM EST. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/11 "2006-01-23T00:16:52Z")
U.S. here: Grits 109, Tories 106, BQ 56, NDP 37 ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/12 "2006-01-23T01:01:29Z")
Go, Matt\_MCL! Go Matt\_MCL! Go! Go! I dunno, I’m just rooting for the man with the love of subways. ---
**Author:** ![Serket](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b38774/32.png) [@Serket](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Serket)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/13 "2006-01-23T01:13:23Z")
> [@The Flying Dutchman](#): > > conservative 137 > > liberal 88 > > bq 59 > > ndp 34 > I think you’ve got a good handle on the conservatives and the bq, but too many of us find the ndp irrelevant. You are also showing 10 extra seats. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/14 "2006-01-23T01:31:13Z")
American here. (Were I Canadian, I’d likely be voting NDP.) The New Progressive Alliance of Conservatives: 140 Liberal: 85 BQ: 55 NDP: 28 Do I get bonus points for predicting the length of the resultant coalition government? 18-24 months. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/15 "2006-01-23T01:32:57Z")
> [@Serket](#): > > You are also showing 10 extra seats. I should pay better attention. I made my prediction based on where I saw the error in the OP’s predictions wrt Liberal relative to the NDP. Thankyou for giving me the opportunity for another chance. I’ll amend my prediction if that is okay with the OP to conservative 137 liberal 88 bq 59 ndp 24. ---
**Author:** ![Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19adc/32.png) [@Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/16 "2006-01-23T01:52:33Z")
I am historically horrible when it comes to projecting seats in the Commons. With that in mind, I’m going for a wild gamble. Conservatives: 212 BQ: 50 Liberals: 22 NDP: 22 Green: 2 Solid Conservative majority – and most of the country will probably wake up screaming “NO! Why did I vote strategically!” My riding is the hotly contested Vancouver Centre, where the choices include Liberal Hedy Fry and NDP Svend Robinson :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/17 "2006-01-23T02:26:26Z")
Conservative voter here. Conservatives 130 Liberals 90 NDP 33 Bloc 54 Other 1 ---
**Author:** ![Kid\_A\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Kid\_A\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kid_A_1)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/18 "2006-01-23T03:14:23Z")
Conservatives 119 Liberals 100 BQ 58 NDP 30 Other 1 I’ll be voting for the NDP. I won’t vote Conservative, I can’t vote Liberal and I despise Jim Harris. Once they get rid of him, I’d consider the Green Party. But for now, I’m staying orange. Windsor West will stay with Brian Masse, NDP. Some longtime residents of the riding have told me that they’re voting NDP, which they normally wouldn’t, because they share Masse’s views on the creation of another border crossing with Detroit. If it wasn’t for the bridge, this might be a race. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/19 "2006-01-23T04:07:14Z")
I’m voting Conservative (Peter Goldring) and he’ll win. Conservative: 129 Liberal: 90 BQ: 59 NDP: 29 I wish the Conservatives would get a majority, but it looks unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/20 "2006-01-23T04:38:15Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > I’m voting Conservative (Peter Goldring) and he’ll win. > > Conservative: 129 > Liberal: 90 > BQ: 59 > NDP: 29 > > I wish the Conservatives would get a majority, but it looks unlikely. You’re missing a seat. 129+90+59+29 = 307. Wanna fix it before the contest closes? (NOTE: All entries may be amended prior to 9:30 EST) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150.md?page=2)