# Canadian Election Prediction Thread: Contest, With A Real Prize! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 22, 2006, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150 "2006-01-22T21:13:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Cunctator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/43a26b/32.png) [@Cunctator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cunctator)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/61 "2006-01-23T23:28:10Z")
Is voting finished yet? My prediction: Conservatives 158 Liberals 67 Bloc Québéois 53 NDP 30 ---
**Author:** ![Nature\_s\_Call](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nature_s_call/32/19006_2.png) [@Nature\_s\_Call](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nature_s_Call)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/62 "2006-01-24T01:30:38Z")
One hour left… ---
**Author:** ![Sgt.Pepper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Sgt.Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sgt.Pepper)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/63 "2006-01-24T02:17:43Z")
I’m sticking by my prediction, a Liberal minority will win. That’s way out there, but I think there will be doubt at the polls today and thats why I predict that. I have a question as well, though. Okay, so suppose we get Liberals: 112 Conservatives: 111, and the rest spread out between the other parties. What would happen if a Liberal minister switched sides to the Conservatives, would that suddenly make Mr. Harper PM? Or even if a party got 154 seats, could someone switch to that party to give that party a majority? Odd questions, I know. But it’s the first time I’ve really been interested in Canadian politics. ---
**Author:** ![Nature\_s\_Call](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nature_s_call/32/19006_2.png) [@Nature\_s\_Call](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nature_s_Call)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/64 "2006-01-24T03:09:11Z")
CBC just called it - Conservative minority. Let’s see the actual numbers… ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/65 "2006-01-24T03:25:36Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > A lack of gerrymandering, in my opinion. Canadian electoral districts are drawn by independent commisions. > > We’d see the same thing here if the districts weren’t drawn so that they are 90% safe for one party or the other. I’m not sure what you mean. You think we’d have swings like this in America without gerrymandering? ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/66 "2006-01-24T03:30:31Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > 1. I’m not sure how much bigger the swings really are here as compared to the US. Really it may be better to compare our election to your presidential election, where you have things like Reagan cleaning up in 84 swinging to Clinton in two elections. That’s really not very similar at all. In 1992 when Clinton was elected Reagan was four years retired from politics. And in the case of some of the big swings you see in Canadian politics, thats a matter of many legislators losing office throughout the country. Reagan however won a huge majority in 1984 becuase Walter Mondale was such a terrible candidate. In 1992 things were fundamentally different, Reagan was retired from politics, Clinton was sure as heck no Mondale. ---
**Author:** ![PastAllReason](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f07891/32.png) [@PastAllReason](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastAllReason)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/67 "2006-01-24T03:51:56Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > And another, from [Ipsos-Reid](http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2949): > I don’t know why different pollsters would be so far apart, but there you go. Huh. Unless there is a drastic change from the returns at this point, boy did they get it wrong. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/68 "2006-01-24T03:53:35Z")
> [@Sgt.Pepper](#): > > I have a question as well, though. Okay, so suppose we get Liberals: 112 Conservatives: 111, and the rest spread out between the other parties. What would happen if a Liberal minister switched sides to the Conservatives, would that suddenly make Mr. Harper PM? Or even if a party got 154 seats, could someone switch to that party to give that party a majority? No, the government fails only due to a successful non confidence motion in the house. The NDP could continue to support the liberals in such a motion if they have enough seats to help the liberal government get a mojority of the votes on that motion. If the government fails, it will be up to the Governor- General to decide if she’ll give the conservatives a chance to form a government or go to the people for another election. Your question has me thinking though. What if the liberal minister, (i.e. former liberal minister) switches sides before the new government is sworn in ? Anyone? ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/69 "2006-01-24T03:58:28Z")
10:57 PM: 121 Conservative, 104 Liberal, 50 Bloc, 31 NDP, 1 Independent. BC results just starting to come in. Well, it looks like Ignatieff is leading in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Sam Bulte is trailing in Parkdale-High Park; this is good, because she apparently supported DMCA-like copyright reform. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/70 "2006-01-24T04:16:02Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > I’m not sure what you mean. You think we’d have swings like this in America without gerrymandering? Of course. Not in every election, mind you, and not necessarily as extreme as the 1993 example which was certainly a concatenation of rare circumstances, but if districts were drawn as much as possible to include an equal amount from each party with an admixture of independents, they would much more easily reflect popular opinion rather than party loyalty. ---
**Author:** ![Nature\_s\_Call](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nature_s_call/32/19006_2.png) [@Nature\_s\_Call](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nature_s_Call)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/71 "2006-01-24T04:31:17Z")
If current numbers hold, looks like Ms Macphisto will soon be shopping at Chapters… ---
**Author:** ![Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19adc/32.png) [@Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/72 "2006-01-24T04:38:06Z")
Aw man, city folk are going to be _screwed_. ---
**Author:** ![Nature\_s\_Call](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nature_s_call/32/19006_2.png) [@Nature\_s\_Call](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nature_s_Call)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/73 "2006-01-24T04:38:12Z")
…whoops, spoke too soon. The numbers have already changed. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a very tight race between: Ms Macphisto cowgirl Helen’s Eidolon spectrum Over to you, Peter… ---
**Author:** ![Bookkeeper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bookkeeper/32/281_2.png) [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/74 "2006-01-24T04:54:24Z")
Interesting that the Marijuana Party is apparently way ahead of the Greens in Nunavut, with 12%+. Looks like **matt\_mcl** won’t be moving to Ottawa after all ☹ , although he may yet pull ahead of the Conservatives for third place. At least it looks like Liza Frulla will get dumped 🙂 . My riding has maintained its historical loyalties and stayed Liberal despite Mrs B’s and my attempts to turn it Green. Why the hell can’t the Libs keep their act together long enough for me to vote for them with a clear conscience more than twice in a row? ---
**Author:** ![Serket](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b38774/32.png) [@Serket](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Serket)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/75 "2006-01-24T04:58:19Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’m putting this is GD because A) it’s political and B) I’m voting Conservative, so it shouldn’t take long before someone calls me a baby-killing fascist. Is the “baby-killing” part dealing with abortion? What is the Tories’ stance on abortion? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/76 "2006-01-24T05:05:12Z")
> [@Serket](#): > > Is the “baby-killing” part dealing with abortion? What is the Tories’ stance on abortion? Depends who you ask. But no, that wasn’t the reference. ---
**Author:** ![Mehitabel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/77 "2006-01-24T05:06:30Z")
Hey Merkuns, CSPAN is carrying the CBC feed, and Martin is conceding the PM ship at midnight in Montreal even as we speak (he held his riding, though.) He’s switching from French to English every other sentence, and the announcer probably has a copy of it since he’s usually simultaneous with him. Heh–he just said No Canadian Should Be Left Behind. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/78 "2006-01-24T05:29:39Z")
It’s interesting that the Liberals only claimed 13 seats west of Ontario, and most of those were in Vancouver. There’s now a huge area of Canada that has virtually no Liberal representation. Between Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba Liberals only have 5 seats, and none at all in Alberta. That’s a startling result for Canada’s ‘natural governing party’. That’s a pretty big turnaround from a little while ago, when it was said that the Conservatives were a western regional party, while the Liberals represented ‘Canada’. Now Conservatives have representation across Canada, and the Liberals have become a regional party. Now comes the difficult part - Harper putting together a government that can maintain power while having all opposition parties to the left of him. A daunting task. If, say, the Liberals and the NDP working together grab the first opportunity to force a vote of non-confidence and bring another election, it could get very ugly. Martin has announced that he is stepping down as leader, so it will be very interesting to see the kind of person the Liberals pick to replace him. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/79 "2006-01-24T05:32:20Z")
> [@Mehitabel](#): > > Hey Merkuns, CSPAN is carrying the CBC feed, and Martin is conceding the PM ship at midnight in Montreal even as we speak (he held his riding, though.) He’s switching from French to English every other sentence, and the announcer probably has a copy of it since he’s usually simultaneous with him. > > Heh–he just said No Canadian Should Be Left Behind. Oh shit, C-SPAN just lost the signal! Canada must have descended into total anarchy! ---
**Author:** ![Lissla\_Lissar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8491ac/32.png) [@Lissla\_Lissar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lissla_Lissar)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-prediction-thread-contest-with-a-real-prize/341150/80 "2006-01-24T05:38:39Z")
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