# Canadian Election: Rubber Hits the Road Time: Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [June 26, 2004, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330 "2004-06-26T17:20:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2004, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/1 "2004-06-26T17:20:07Z")
Right, folks. We’ve been talking about the election for a month now, over on this thread: [The Canadian Election](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=258368). Now, with the actual vote just two days away, time to put down your predictions. Who’s it gonna be, and by how much? Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen! Les jeux sont faits, mesdames et messieurs! _Jacta alea est!_ First, here’s the seat distribution, garnered from the [Elections Canada web-site](http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=cir&document=rep&dir=rep&lang=e&textonly=false#sas): N&L: 7 PEI: 4 NS: 11 NB: 10 Que: 75 Ont: 106 Man: 14 Sask: 14 Alta: 28 BC: 36 Yu: 1 NWT: 1 Nun: 1 **Total: 308** My prediction: I think that Harper & Co. peaked too soon. The middle-of-the-road folks in Ontario may have been angry with the Grits, but once they started looking at the New Tories™, listened to Harper musing about a majority, and heard King Ralph talk about his secret secret plans to challenge the Canada Health Act two days after the election, they’ve started to pull back. I think the Tories will make substantial inroads in Ontario, however, enough that Martin won’t get a majority. The Bloc’s going to do really well in Quebec, and the NDP will pick up some new seats, because I think some of the three-way splits in some close ridings will favour them this time. So here’s Piper’s Prediction: Liberals: 112 Conservatives: 110 Bloc Québécois: 62 New Democrats: 23 Independent: 1 (I’m going out on a limb with the independent call, but I think one of the Saskatchewan ridings may be interesting.) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2004, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/2 "2004-06-26T18:38:13Z")
To be honest I can’t improve on that prediction. Maybe 115-107 for the Liberals. I think we might see a Green candidate win a BC riding. What will be interesting is to see how the Conservatives react to just barely losing. Historically, the Reform-Alliance response to any setback has been “Oh my God, we need a new leader! We need to rename the party!” whereas the old PC party regulars would probably understand that cutting the Liberals to a minority is a huge, huge victory, one that could lead to a majority win in the next election (which could come within a year.) Will cooler heads prevail? ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2004, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/3 "2004-06-26T19:20:35Z")
> [@Northern Piper](#): > > (I’m going out on a limb with the independent call, but I think one of the Saskatchewan ridings may be interesting.) Are you thinking Spencer, or Pankiw? I don’t live in Saskatoon-Humboldt, being a bit south of 8th St., but the farm is in Pankiw country, and so is my job. I really am not sure what’s going to happen there, but I would be somewhat surprised if Dr. Jim took the seat. I did read an article recently where Nettie Wiebe, the NDP candidate, said that at the doorstep it seemed Pankiw was more serious opposition than the official Tory (one Brad Trost), but I dunno. In my unscientific survey of election sign positioning, it seems to me that it’s vanishingly rare to see a Pankiw sign on someone’s lawn, in spite of the fact that he has the things up all over the place on public property. Trost signs aren’t that uncommon on lawns at all. This suggests to me that Pankiw doesn’t have much support amongst the urban conservatives in the riding. It does seem likely that he has higher support in the rural parts of the riding, but this probably won’t be enough for two reasons - one, there’s just too much of Saskatoon in the riding to win on the strength of the rural vote alone, and two, the NDP candidate is Nettie Wiebe, former president of the NFU, and she’s going to score some rural votes as well. My prediction for that riding would be NDP coming up the middle on a split conservative vote, which Pankiw polling in second ahead of the Tory, and the Liberal dead last, but I wouldn’t be shocked to be proven wrong. I know nothing about Spencer’s riding in Regina, and can’t comment on his chances. I won’t comment on the general election, except to say that I’m less confident than usual in the reliability of pollsters’ predictions this time round. I think we may be surprised Monday night. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2004, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/4 "2004-06-26T22:42:20Z")
According to today’s paper, polls right now show the Conservatives with 99, the liberals with 97, the NDP with 18, the Bloc with 53, and there are 50 that are too close to call. So we could wind up with anything from 149 C, 97 Lib, to 147 lib 99 C. More likely, the areas that are too close to call will break along the current trend lines, which would mean the PCs and Libs will tie each other at somewhere around 115-120, with the rest going to the Bloc and NDP. Doesn’t seem likely that either party will get a majority, or even a minority big enough to survive with only minor support from other parties. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/5 "2004-06-27T04:30:31Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Doesn’t seem likely that either party will get a majority, or even a minority big enough to survive with only minor support from other parties. In particular, a really close split will result in the Bloc having the balance of power, and the NDP left out in the cold. I can’t say I’m particularly overjoyed at the prospect of a party whose primary platform item is the destruction of the country being in the driver’s seat. ---
**Author:** ![Ms\_Macphisto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b487fb/32.png) [@Ms\_Macphisto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ms_Macphisto)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/6 "2004-06-27T08:13:40Z")
> [@Northern Piper](#): > > (I’m going out on a limb with the independent call, but I think one of the Saskatchewan ridings may be interesting.) There’s also the potential for an independent the the Surrey North riding in BC. The popular Conservative incumbent was overthrown in the nominations and is running as an independent. There was a poll a couple of weeks ago showing him winning in a landslide, but as we all know a lot can change in two weeks. Monday’s going to be an interesting night. ---
**Author:** ![fubar\_tabarnac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/cdc98d/32.png) [@fubar\_tabarnac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fubar_tabarnac)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/7 "2004-06-27T10:31:20Z")
i’ve spent a couple days working out this riding by riding projection, and i guess here is as good a place as any to share it. (…and obviously i do not have inside info for every riding, so i started with the list compiled by the [election prediction project.](http://www.electionprediction.org/2004_fed/index.html) i then made calls in the ridings they felt were “too close” & changed calls in a number of others, based sometimes on info from contacts in various ridings, often on complete wild ass guesses, and for a dozen or so ridings on coin flips. the margin error for this projection is therefore roughly comparable with that of your local newspaper’s latest guess.) territories: yukon: ndp nwt: lib nunavut: lib lib 2 ndp 1 bc: Vancouver Centre: ndp Vancouver East: ndp Vancouver Kingsway: lib Vancouver Quadra: lib Vancouver South: ndp Burnaby-Douglas: ndp Burnaby-New Westminster: lib New Westminster-Coquitlam: lib Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam: ndp North Vancouver: con West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast: con Delta-Richmond East: con Fleetwood-Port Kells: con Newton-North Delta: con Richmond: con South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale: con Surrey North: ndp Abbotsford: con Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon: con Dewdney-Alouette: con Langley: con Cariboo-Prince George:con Kamloops-Thompson: con Kelowna: con Kootenay-Columbia: con North Okanagan-Shuswap: con Okanagan-Coquihalla: con Prince George-Peace River: con Skeena-Bulkley Valley: con Southern Interior: con Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: ndp Nanaimo-Alberni: ndp Nanaimo-Cowichan: ndp Saanich-Gulf Islands: con Vancouver Island North: ndp Victoria:ndp lib 4 ndp 11 con 21 alberta: Calgary East: con Calgary North Centre: con Calgary Northeast: con Calgary-Nose Hill: con Calgary South Centre: con Calgary Southeast: con Calgary Southwest: con Calgary West: con Edmonton-Beaumont: lib Edmonton Centre: con Edmonton East: con Edmonton-Leduc: con Edmonton-St.Albert: con Edmonton-Sherwood Park: con Edmonton-Spruce Grove: con Edmonton-Strathcona: ndp Athabasca: con Crowfoot: con Lethbridge: con Macleod: con Medicine Hat: con Peace River: con Red Deer: con Vegreville-Wainwright: con Westlock-St.Paul: con Wetaskiwin: con Wild Rose: con Yellowhead: con ndp 1 lib 1 con 26 saskatchewan: Battlefords-Lloydminster: con Blackstrap: con Churchill River: ndp Cypress Hills-Grasslands: con Palliser: ndp Prince Albert: con Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre: con Regina-Qu’Appelle: ndp Saskatoon-Humboldt: ndp Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: ndp Saskatoon-Wanuskewin: con Souris-Moose Mountain: con Wascana: lib Yorkton-Melville: con lib 1 ndp 5 con 8 manitoba: Charleswood-St.James: lib Elmwood-Transcona: ndp Kildonan-St.Paul: ndp Saint Boniface: lib Winnipeg Centre: ndp Winnipeg North: ndp Winnipeg South: lib Winnipeg South Centre: lib Brandon-Souris: con Churchill: ndp Dauphin-Swan River: con Portage-Lisgar: con Provencher: con Selkirk-Interlake: ndp ndp 6 con 4 lib 4 ontario: Beaches-East York: ndp Davenport: ndp Don Valley East: lib Don Valley West: lib Eglinton-Lawrence: lib Etobicoke Centre: lib Etobicoke-Lakeshore: lib Etobicoke North: lib Parkdale-High Park: ndp St.Paul’s: lib Scarborough-Agincourt: lib Scarborough Centre: lib Scarborough-Guildwood: lib Scarborough-Rouge River: lib Scarborough Southwest: lib Toronto Centre: ndp Toronto-Danforth: ndp Trinity-Spadina: ndp Willowdale: lib York Centre: lib York South-Weston: lib York West: lib Ajax-Pickering: lib Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale: con Bramalea-Gore-Malton: lib Brampton-Springdale: con Brampton West: con Burlington: con Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge: con Dufferin-Caledon: con Halton: con Hamilton Centre: ndp Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: ndp Hamilton Mountain: ndp Markham-Unionville: lib Mississauga-Brampton South: lib Mississauga East-Cooksville: lib Mississauga-Erindale: lib Mississauga South: con Mississauga-Streetsville: con Newmarket-Aurora: con Niagara Falls: con Niagara West-Glanbrook: con Oak Ridges-Markham: con Oakville: con Oshawa: ndp Pickering-Scarborough East: lib Richmond Hill: lib St.Catharines: lib Thornhill: lib Vaughan: lib Welland: lib Whitby-Oshawa: con York-Simcoe: con Carleton-Lanark: con Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: con Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock: con Kingston and the Islands: lib Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington: con Leeds-Grenville: con Nepean-Carleton: lib Northumberland-Quinte West: con Ottawa Centre: ndp Ottawa-Orleans: con Ottawa South: ndp Ottawa-Vanier: lib Ottawa West-Nepean: lib Peterborough: lib Prince Edward-Hastings: lib Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke: con Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry: lib Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: lib Kenora: lib Nickel Belt: lib Nipissing-Timiskaming: lib Parry Sound-Muskoka: lib Sault Ste.Marie: ndp Sudbury: lib Thunder Bay-Rainy River: con Thunder Bay-Superior North: lib Timmins-James Bay: con Cambridge: con Chatham-Kent-Essex: lib Elgin-Middlesex-London: lib Essex: con Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound: con Guelph: lib Haldimand-Norfolk: lib Brant: lib Huron-Bruce: lib Kitchener Centre: ndp Kitchener-Conestoga: lib Kitchener-Waterloo: lib London-Fanshawe: ndp London North Centre: ndp London West: lib Middlesex-Kent-Lambton: lib Oxford: con Perth-Wellington: con Sarnia-Lambton: lib Barrie: lib Simcoe North: lib Simcoe-Grey: con Wellington-Halton Hills: con Windsor-Tecumseh: ndp Windsor West: ndp lib 55 ndp 18 con 33 quebec: Ahuntsic: lib Alfred-Pellan: lib Bourassa: lib Hochelaga: bloc Honore-Mercier: lib Jeanne-Le Ber: lib Lac-Saint-Louis: lib La Pointe-de-l’Ile: lib LaSalle-Emard: lib Laurier: bloc Laval: bloc Laval-Les Iles: lib Marc-Aurele-Fortin: bloc Mount Royal: lib Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine : lib Outremont: bloc Papineau: lib Pierrefonds-Dollard: lib Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie: bloc Saint-Laurent-Cartierville: lib Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel: lib Westmount-Ville-Marie: lib Argenteuil-Mirabel: bloc Beauport: bloc Berthier-Maskinonge: bloc Charlesbourg: bloc Charlevoix-Montmorency: bloc Gatineau: lib Hull-Aylmer: lib Louis-Hebert: bloc Louis-Saint-Laurent: bloc Pontiac: lib Portneuf: bloc Quebec: bloc Repentigny: bloc Riviere-des-Mille-Iles: bloc Saint-Maurice-Champlain: bloc Terrebonne-Blainville: bloc Trois-Rivieres: bloc Vaudreuil-Soulanges: bloc Beauce: lib Beauharnois-Salaberry: bloc Brome-Missisquoi: lib Brossard-La Prairie: bloc Chambly-Borduas: bloc Chateauguay-Saint-Constant: bloc Compton-Stanstead: bloc Drummond: bloc Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine: lib Levis-Bellechasse: bloc Longueuil: bloc Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere: bloc Matapedia-Matane: bloc Megantic-L’Erable: bloc Richelieu: bloc Richmond-Arthabaska: bloc Rimouski-Temiscouata: bloc Riviere-du-Loup-Montmagny: bloc Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert: bloc Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot: bloc Saint-Jean: bloc Saint-Lambert: bloc Shefford: bloc Sherbrooke: bloc Vercheres-Les Patriotes: bloc Abitibi-Temiscamingue: bloc Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: bloc Joliette: bloc Jonquiere-Alma: bloc Laurentides-Labelle: bloc Manicouagan: bloc Montcalm: bloc Nunavik-Eeyou: bloc Riviere-du-Nord: bloc Roberval: bloc lib 22 bloc 53 new brunswick: Acadie-Bathurst: ndp Beauséjour: lib Fredericton: lib Fundy: con Madawaska-Restigouche: lib Miramichi: lib Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe: lib St.Croix-Belleisle: con Saint John: lib Tobique-Mactaqua: lib ndp 1 con 2 lib 7 nova scotia: Cape Breton-Canso: lib Central Nova: con Dartmouth-Cole Harbour: ndp Halifax: ndp Halifax West: ndp Kings-Hants: lib North Nova: con Sackville-Eastern Shore: ndp South Shore-St.Margaret’s: ndp Sydney-Victoria: ndp West Nova: lib ndp 6 lib 3 con 2 prince edward island: Cardigan: lib Charlottetown: lib Egmont: lib Malpeque: lib lib 4 newfoundland & labrador: Avalon: lib Bonavista-Exploits: lib Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte: ndp Labrador: con Random-Burin-St.George’s: ndp St.John’s North: con St.John’s South: con lib 2 ndp 2 con 3 totals: bloc 53 con 99 lib 105 ndp 51 ---
**Author:** ![CuriousCanuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@CuriousCanuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CuriousCanuck)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/8 "2004-06-27T14:44:29Z")
I have a feeling that though the Conservatives are neck and neck in the polls, when voterrs go to the ballot boxes there will be a lot that have a change of heart and write Liberal down. I also think that the majoirty of undecideds will go Liberal when all is said and done, so I predict that the Liberals will win about 135 seats, with the NDP eeking out enough to make up the difference in a minority government. Of course I could be quite wrong about that. I think the key here will lie in getting a lot of the people that were not planning on voting out to the polls. Whomever wins the most seats in what is bound to be a minoirty government will probably have them to thank for it. If the turn out is under 60% as predicted, I think it would be sad no matter who wins. ---
**Author:** ![shirt\_brown\_honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/94ad74/32.png) [@shirt\_brown\_honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shirt_brown_honesty)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/9 "2004-06-27T15:53:12Z")
fubar, wow what a detailed prediction. I moved from Vancouver…actually North Van last fall and I think you are right about most of Vancouver. I think Thunder Bay -Superior North will not go Liberal although the incumbant has held the seat for quite a while, I think people are really not interested in him. It may go NDP. But I think the Thunder Bay Rainy River may go Liberal as the former mayor is running, and he was pretty popular. Of course, I havent seen recent polls, I have a hard time reading the local “newspaper”. Most Fear Factor challenges are more appetizing than reading that rag. I voted in the advance polls, and although I would not vote any differently tomorrow, I wish I had waited. You know, saved it for that magical day. It should be very interesting. ---
**Author:** ![PastAllReason](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f07891/32.png) [@PastAllReason](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastAllReason)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/10 "2004-06-27T16:08:53Z")
> [@Northern Piper](#): > > Right, folks. We’ve been talking about the election for a month now, over on this thread: > > (I’m going out on a limb with the independent call, but I think one of the Saskatchewan ridings may be interesting.) Not sure which one you’re referring to, but I am interested to see how Grant Devine does running as an Independent in Souris-Moose Mountain. For those who may not know, Grant Devine was the Premier in Saskatchewan from 1982 to 1991 leading the Conservative Party. In the years since then, several Conservative MLAs (this didn’t include Devine) were prosecuted for their activities during this time. ---
**Author:** ![shirt\_brown\_honesty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/94ad74/32.png) [@shirt\_brown\_honesty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shirt_brown_honesty)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/11 "2004-06-27T16:10:16Z")
Oh I forgot my numbers. While not as detailed as fubar’s predictions I am thinking roughly 115-120 Liberal 105-110 New Conservative Slim Liberal minority government and Paul Martin frantically trying to clutch power reigns. About 50-55 Bloc 25 NDP 1 Green 1or 2 independents? I know the numbers don’t fully ad up but thats my rough estimate. ---
**Author:** ![Kid\_A\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Kid\_A\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kid_A_1)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/12 "2004-06-27T17:54:50Z")
I’ll just post my numbers from the GD thread. Liberals-115 Conservatives-114 NDP-28 BQ-51. I’m now having second thoughts about the low-ball BQ number, I think it’s going to be closer to 60 seats but I’ll stick with my original guess. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/13 "2004-06-27T22:44:50Z")
I think Kid-A’s numbers are closest. I don’t think the NDP are going to pick up 50 seats. They’ll be lucky to get half of that. ---
**Author:** ![elfbabe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b782af/32.png) [@elfbabe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfbabe)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2004, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/14 "2004-06-27T22:47:22Z")
Hey **fubar tabarnac** , how’re you making that decision for the Nepean-Carleton riding? The election predicion site says it’s going to go Conservative, and my boyfriend and his mother are agonizing over whether to vote Liberal in the hopes that the Conservatives don’t have a lock or go with their consciences and vote NDP. I got no sympathy here, I gotta vote for Lurch in November… but I’m interested in what you think if you’re not just guessing. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2004, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/15 "2004-06-28T00:59:30Z")
> [@PastAllReason](#): > > Not sure which one you’re referring to, but I am interested to see how Grant Devine does running as an Independent in Souris-Moose Mountain. For those who may not know, Grant Devine was the Premier in Saskatchewan from 1982 to 1991 leading the Conservative Party. In the years since then, several Conservative MLAs (this didn’t include Devine) were prosecuted for their activities during this time. That’s the one I meant - I was rushing to get somewhere so didn’t have time to fill out my post. [Souris-Moose Mountain](http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/about/process/house/hfer/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&rid=965&Include=) is one of the safest conservative ridings in Saskatchewan, and contains the provincial riding of Estevan, which was Devine’s own riding throughout the time he was Premier. He was always personally very popular there. I think it’s likely that the old PCs will support him, even if they’re now nominally Conservative federally, and I think at least some of the old Reform-Alliance supporters may be upset about the national party executive not letting them choose their own candidate - not very “grassroots”. So if ever an independent can get elected, I think Devine’s got a shot at it - that, or he’ll split the conservative vote enought that one of the other parties will take the riding. (The Liberals took it in 1993 due to the PC-Reform vote split). ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2004, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/16 "2004-06-28T01:07:35Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Are you thinking Spencer, or Pankiw? > … > I know nothing about Spencer’s riding in Regina, and can’t comment on his chances. [Regina-Lumsden](http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/about/process/house/hfer/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&Include=Y&rid=1222) is a toss-up. Until the last election, it was considered a safe NDP seat. Then Spencer knocked off Solomon by just over 100 votes. Spencer is running again as an Independent, opposed to same-sex marriage. Will he draw enough votes from the Conservative candidate for the NDP to take it back? I would think there’s a good chance of that happening. Gossip is that all three of the major parties think that the riding is “in play.” ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2004, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/17 "2004-06-28T01:12:23Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > I don’t think the NDP are going to pick up 50 seats. They’ll be lucky to get half of that. I agree. \*_fubar_, I think you’ve been a bit too generous on that part of the prediction. ---
**Author:** ![fubar\_tabarnac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/cdc98d/32.png) [@fubar\_tabarnac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fubar_tabarnac)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2004, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/18 "2004-06-28T02:56:58Z")
so since i just noticed that my guest membership expires today, i leave you with my methodology for the projection: first i gave the ndp every seat they will likely come within ten points of winning. about 60 ridings. then i took a closer look at those, giving the libs & cons (at about 2-1) the dozen & a half longest shots. (referring back to epp for guidance as to which for which) then i quickly ran through quebec, deferring to epp for all but four ridings, from which i have contacts telling me that they are too close to call. so i called them the other way because i could. next i gave alberta to the cons, with the exception of the one each ndp & lib strongest points in the province. because what the hell, it’s no fun predicting a sweep. so then i started with bc and working east, filled in the liberals strongest concetrations of strength, then from nfld back west i plugged in the cons to the rest of the ridings. i went back over the list again tinkering here and there, (like giving kitchener centre, surrey north & humber-st barbe-baie verte to the ndp. hey, stranger things have happened.) finally, i noted about a dozen ridings that did not match the epp, and that i don’t have any good info on, flipping a coin to decide (heads it stays the way i put it, tails it reverts to epp’s call) n.b. – the election prediction project has updated at least once since i compiled my list, changing at least half a dozen ridings (that i’ve noticed) and calling the formerly “too close” races. their final? count has 122 liberals, 104 cons, 29 ndp, 52 bloc and 1 independant. i still don’t think that the conservatives will break 100, and the liberal ceiling is more like 115… the ndp will benefit from that situation. popular vote will be in the neighbouhood of 33% liberal, 28% conservative, and 24% ndp, with turnout in the high sixties. ---
**Author:** ![fubar\_tabarnac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/cdc98d/32.png) [@fubar\_tabarnac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fubar_tabarnac)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2004, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/19 "2004-06-28T03:05:39Z")
> [@](#): > > fubar\*, I think you’ve been a bit too generous on that part of the prediction. of course i have. i’m a partisan. and i’m optimistic. but i’m no more out of line than anyone projecting that the conservatives will get 115 or more seats. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2004, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330/20 "2004-06-28T03:39:00Z")
> [@fubar tabarnac](#): > > so since i just noticed that my guest membership expires today [sidebar] what, you’re not going to subscribe? I for one have enjoyed your posts and comments and would encourage you to stay… [/sidebar] [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadian-election-rubber-hits-the-road-time-predictions/252330.md?page=2)