Freeland unfortunately will inherit the Trudeau baggage. I’d kind of like to see Singh win, but the NDP just cannot get there.
Freeland?
Either Poilevre or Freeland could win. Poilevre would be a fairly substantial favourite against any Liberal leader; the Liberal government is long in the tooth. Singh wouldn’t, because the NDP wouldn’t.
A year back or so? Freeland. Now? I’d say Poilievre simply due to the exhaustion I think people feel around the federal Liberals. I actually think if the Liberals had not wrapped up Singh’s support they would be in a better spot. The view from outside would look less like a bunch of tired, uninterested, politicians floating through important events.
CPC MPs are meeting with “Freedom” Convoy organizers leading up to a new rally on Canada Day. Some of the people they’re meeting with are absolutely insane. Such as Paul Alexander, former Trump campaign advisor, who recently claimed that mandates were the cause of the Uvalde shootings. I really do not think this will be a good look for them. With the previous convoy, it was more a case of convoy shows up, MPs come down to meet with them. So there’s some degree of deniability with respect to involvement. But not this time. They seem to be going hard are recapturing the PPC vote, but is that a game winning strategy? Are they trying to appeal to them now and then pivot to a more centrist take come election time and hope that people forget (sadly likely true)? Ottawa residents (of which I am one now) REALLY hate the convoy. Probably little chance of this affecting Polivere’s reelection chances, but it would be comical (to me anyway) if it did and he lost his seat.
I have to wonder if these MPs watched the Jan 6 committee hearing from yesterday. The image of top DOJ officials being sent stupid CT videos from Youtube, and then having to sit down and watch the whole thing, just so they could tell the member of Congress who sent it to them that it was nonsense, was compelling.
Debunking stupid CTs is a fun hobby in small doses, but it should in no way be part of our normal government operations. Do any of them ever have a moment when listening to these idiots where they think, “Yeah, okay, so, I really shouldn’t be encouraging this to be submitted to Hansard. This is just embarrassing!” (Educational link added for Americans 
)
I think this ascribes way more long term strategic thinking to these people than is merited.
This isn’t even a CPC thing; it’s a few-MPs-in-the-CPC thing. If the Conservatives had an actual leader, he/she would stomp on this like Godzilla, because while it might help some MPs in their riding it clearly doesn’t help the party as a whole.
I guess I just don’t grasp why we are talking about Chrystia Freeland when Justin Trudeau isn’t going anywhere.
I posed the theoretical question since Freeland is pretty clearly the current heir apparent given her general competence, multiple portfolios, appearances at major announcements and the prominence of pro-Ukraine policies (which I generally support).
At the end of the day, what percentage of Canadians greatly sympathize with the convoys?
Based on this poll it seems really mixed, in some cases almost contradictory. But that was the first convoy, this convoy I predict is going to really let the mask down (ha! I kill me!), because the main message of the first convoy (end all mandates) feels a little odd when there are almost no mandates left (just reentry on international flights I think?). I think people will not like what they see and it will be harder to drum up support on a non-sensical issue.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/nearly-half-say-they-may-not-agree-with-trucker-convoy
At the time the Emergencies Act was passed (which I thought was reasonable but knew would be controversial), only 15% supported the truckers in Ottawa. Has that changed?
I would have been opposed to using the Emergencies Act is the premier of Ontario was doing anything to resolve the issue. But Ford wasn’t, and while I cannot read his mind, my guess is it was because 1) an election was coming up and he sure as fork didn’t want to mess with the conservative base, and 2) he knew he could force Trudeau to do something and that it would be controversial.
In any case, the province wasn’t acting in a responsible way so the feds stepped in. Seems appropriate to me.
I can only hope the police do a better job this time instead of joining the convoy. Let’s us hope they show half the courage they did when shutting down a child’s lemonade stand.
I’d say it’s down to 10% support. The “convoy totally fizzled in BC. Grifters stole most of the money. The new protest will be “we hate Trudeau and so should you”.
Plus ca change…
There seems to be quite a few people in Canada upset about Roe v Wade. What do you think this will do the CPC in Canada? Frankly, I think they’re lucky there’s no election right now. I know conservative voters don’t like the whole “I’m concerned about what a CPC gov’t might do”, but I think people are (rightfully imo) concerned about the rise of social conservative. This success in the USA is undoubtedly going to energize the social conservatives in Canada to think maybe they can pull it off too. And this will have the effect of raising concerns about a CPC gov’t. Any thoughts?
I do not see this much harming the Conservatives in Canada. The Liberals are certainly going to try to stoke fear that such policies might come to Canada. No doubt some Conservatives and other politicians privately favour it, but since Harper likely accept such policies are electoral non-starters.
To follow this with legitimacy, it would have to be part of their campaign platform and lead to defeat. If not, it would face a confidence vote, soon be overturned and would likely alienate women and moderate voters for the next few decades. Don’t think it likely.
The problem with this thinking is, I would have figured sucking up to the PPC voters and anti-vaxxers, like PP is doing, would also be an “electoral non-starter”, and yet, here we are.
Harper is not controlling the party anymore. I don’t like to think of where the minority in the party might try to drag us, if they get elected.
Canada is not immune from populists or even dictatorships. Some shameless sycophants supporting silly stunts or selfish social schemes does not in itself make paternalistic policy popular, nor eejits electable.
Trudeau was joking about “going shirtless” to taunt Putin. But south of the border, this plays to the people? Here, every journalist remembers when Harper wore a huge cowboy hat or someone showed up at a press conference in a boat…
I ssssssee what you did there.