# Canadopers: fall federal election\[!\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2021, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485 "2021-08-12T01:53:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/484 "2021-09-21T02:56:23Z")
Majority seems exceedingly unlikely at the moment. In fact, right now it’s looking like the seat distribution will be within a couple of where it was before. Giant waste of time and money. ---
**Author:** ![Latimera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/latimera/32/497_2.png) [@Latimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latimera)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/485 "2021-09-21T03:05:37Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Giant waste of time and money. I know that is a popular sentiment, but I don’t really agree. Essentially this was a performance check on the liberals. They asked Canadians if they support the liberal handling of the pandemic and associated impact on the economy. Canadians seem to have said yes, stay the course, but perhaps you could do better. In a sense this also tells the NDP that Canadians are good with the NDP propping up the liberals. ---
**Author:** ![K364](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k364/32/5_2.png) [@K364](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/K364)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/486 "2021-09-21T03:15:15Z")
More a case of holding your nose and voting for who you dislike the least. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/487 "2021-09-21T03:15:34Z")
Didn’t we pretty much know that already? ---
**Author:** ![K364](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k364/32/5_2.png) [@K364](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/K364)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/488 "2021-09-21T03:29:08Z")
The Urban ridings in Canada’s major cities have resoundingly rejected the Conservatives. Edmonton and Calgary being the exceptions, but in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Hamilton the Conservatives got a handful of ridings. ---
**Author:** ![Latimera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/latimera/32/497_2.png) [@Latimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latimera)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/489 "2021-09-21T03:49:40Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Didn’t we pretty much know that already? Did we? I suspect the members of the Conservatives, People’s Party and probably the Bloc wouldn’t have agreed. This election has sent a message to every party. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/490 "2021-09-21T03:54:32Z")
Just saw that on CTV, **K364**. Toronto, for example, is solidly Liberal, or leaning Liberal, pending more results. Our riding (Lethbridge, Alberta) has re-elected the Conservative candidate. In other news, the Pope remains Catholic, the sun rises in the east as always, and bears still shit in the woods. I’ve often said that the Conservatives could run a bowling ball as a candidate here, and it would get elected. Still, it looks like a Liberal minority across the country. So, I don’t expect much will change. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/491 "2021-09-21T04:41:42Z")
Good news I guess is that PPC is running below their polling at 5.2%. Not much in the way of vote-splitting happening, but also very little support for their horrible platform. I would have liked to see Saskatoon West flip back to orange (and it still might, but probably not), but I prefer seeing Max’s Minions garner less support than they expected. Funny thing, I was just home from voting and a Telus door-to-door salesman came by. Telus purple is damn near identical to PPC purple, so I told him he needed a different colour shirt going door to door in my neighbourhood. He said he’d been getting that a lot. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/492 "2021-09-21T05:00:42Z")
> [@Latimera](#): > > I know that is a popular sentiment, but I don’t really agree. Essentially this was a performance check on the liberals. It would appear that they will actually get FEWER votes than the Conservatives, and getting less than a third of the votes and fewer than another party isn’t really a “yes.” ---
**Author:** ![Latimera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/latimera/32/497_2.png) [@Latimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latimera)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/493 "2021-09-21T06:18:30Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It would appear that they will actually get FEWER votes than the Conservatives, and getting less than a third of the votes and fewer than another party isn’t really a “yes.” So? The Conservatives got more popular votes than the Liberals. But the conservative parties (Conservatives + PPC) got a total of 39.2% of the popular vote, while the progressive parties (Liberals, NDP and Greens) got a total of 51.9% of the popular vote (the bloc is central left, so I consider them neutral). Overall, the popular vote changed very little for any Party. That suggests to me that Canadians want the status quo. That is support for the Liberals, but not carte blanche… ---
**Author:** ![Latimera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/latimera/32/497_2.png) [@Latimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latimera)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/494 "2021-09-21T06:22:10Z")
> [@FinsToTheLeft](#): > > My projection: > > Liberal 155 > Cons 124 > BQ 32 > NDP 26 > Green 1 > PPC 0 Looking like you came pretty darn close! ---
**Author:** ![FinsToTheLeft](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finstotheleft/32/2930_2.png) [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/495 "2021-09-21T09:18:23Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Giant waste of time and money. Think of it as $600M in additional CERB, after all it went straight into the economy! ---
**Author:** ![FinsToTheLeft](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finstotheleft/32/2930_2.png) [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/496 "2021-09-21T09:22:00Z")
> [@Latimera](#): > > Looking like you came pretty darn close! I figured it wasn’t going to change much. I admit that I am pretty damn happy I was correct on the PPC seat count. Max was soundly trounced in his own riding. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/497 "2021-09-21T11:25:24Z")
> [@Latimera](#): > > So? The Conservatives got more popular votes than the Liberals. But the conservative parties (Conservatives + PPC) got a total of 39.2% of the popular vote, while the progressive parties (Liberals, NDP and Greens) got a total of 51.9% of the popular vote (the bloc is central left, so I consider them neutral). Overall, the popular vote changed very little for any Party. That suggests to me that Canadians want the status quo. That is support for the Liberals, but not carte blanche… The BQ aren’t a policy party,they are a separatist party. The people that vote for them dont _care_ about setting policy in Canada, they care to indicate their unhappiness with being associated with it. Also tends to be more rural than urban. But if you exclude Quebec it does odd things to the results and in my view, worrisome ones | Party | Overall | Overall Excluding Quebec | | --- | --- | --- | | Conservative | 34% | 39% | | Liberal | 32% | 32% | | NDP-New Democratic Party | 18% | 20% | | Bloc Québécois | 8% | 0% | | People’s Party - PPC | 5% | 6% | | Green Party | 2% | 3% | ~40% is a large slice of the electorate to not have access to power. And what avenue would they be able to take to gain more seats? Appeal to a slice of Liberal support? Then NDP voters vote strategically and nullify the gains. Appeal to the Greens? At best a sliver of the free-market green vote might go there. So…protest voters in the PCC then? It’s a large block that has no home elsewhere. That’s unsettling. It’s funny but the Conservatives might be the best vehicle to get PPR into Canada’s electoral model. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/498 "2021-09-21T11:48:41Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > |Green Party|2%|3% I think the collapse of the Green Party support is probably the biggest “surprise” in this election. I mean, with all their infighting, I expected them to have problems, but not to this extent. And I predict that this will be the high water mark of the PPC. They won’t have the tailor-made issue of the pandemic response next time around, and they don’t have much else that very many Canadians actually want. I don’t expect they’ll give up, but I don’t expect much else from them. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/499 "2021-09-21T11:58:38Z")
The Globe and Mail has a nice results summary page: > **[Canada’s 2021 federal election | Live results](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election/2021-results/)** > > On Sept. 20, 2021, Canada will vote to decide which federal political party forms government. Bookmark this page to see full results and maps beginning when the polls close. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/500 "2021-09-21T12:00:11Z")
True - maybe they brought in people that typically don’t vote and that helped give them some heft. Still But for those hoping for PPR consider what it would’ve looked like something like this | Party | Grand Total | | --- | --- | | Conservative | 114.0 | | Liberal | 111.0 | | NDP-New Democratic Party | 61.0 | | Bloc Québécois | 25.0 | | People’s Party - PPC | 18.0 | | Green Party | 7.1 | | Free Party Canada | 1.0 | There’s a platform for Bernier’s vanity project. ---
**Author:** ![keeganst94](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/a6a055/32.png) [@keeganst94](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/keeganst94)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/501 "2021-09-21T12:07:04Z")
I mean if you exclude an area of liberal support then sure, it looks like another party is underrepresented. The bloc does not win even a plurality of the vote in Quebec - the liberals do. We could just as easily do the same thing for Alberta and claim that the liberals and NDP are underrepresented. Unless you seriously expect Quebec to separate, which I very much do not, why would you exclude Quebec? As for Conservatives and PPR, I don’t think they would ever back it. First because they’re conservative by nature, and I don’t think they would support such a drastic change. Second, because they know that the liberals, NDP and Greens are much more natural allies than the CPC and any other party (except maybe the PPC, who I think everybody expects to wane), and moving to PPR would mean more or less permanent coalition governments. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/502 "2021-09-21T12:09:41Z")
And overall turnout of voters seems lower than it has been in recent elections. Not all polls have been counted yet, but [from Elections Canada](https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e), the turnout was: 15,993,868 of 27,366,297 registered electors (58.44 %) – does not include electors who registered on election day. That might be the lowest it’s ever been. Maybe when all the votes are counted, we’ll have a better turnout than in 2008, but maybe not. We certainly won’t get to the 66% level of 2019. > **[Voter turnout in Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_Canada)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > Voter turnout is the percentage of registered voters who cast a ballot in an election. The following presents voter turnout figures for Canada's general elections as compiled by Elections Canada. > When low turnout reflects cultural values of disenchantment or indifference, the election may not be an accurate reflection of the will of the people. Low turnouts can lead to unequal representation among various parts of the population. In developed cou... ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2021, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485/503 "2021-09-21T12:46:46Z")
Having lived through the PQ and a few too many referendums - no the Bloc is not a typical federal party. They exist, aside from padding their pensions, to undermine Canadian federalism. Their platform primarily appeals to what’s left of the separatist movement and soft conservative nationalists. But are they a federal party that has to appeal to an entire country? Nope, not even close. Hell the only reason Blachet does well in the debates is because he doesn’t care to appeal to anyone in the ROC. It’s not the same as the Conservatives (or the old Reform party) and their support in Alberta. Wexit weenies aside the Conservative party attempts a national approach. As for PPR, I doubt any major party considers it, but it would be interesting to see the shifting support. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/canadopers-fall-federal-election/948485.md?page=26)