Cap Executive Pay

Not every CEO of every company earns multi-million dollar salaries and compensation packages. My brother is CEO of a company that employs a few thousand people and I guarantee he earns nowhere near a 30:1 ratio over his employees. For him it is more like a 3-4:1 ratio. I suspect most companies are like that and not paying multi-million compensation packages leaving plenty of room for growth in their salaries.

At 30:1 most Fortune 500 companies would see Executive salaries something north of $1 million. If ALL companies are constrained by that cap then there is nowhere else for them to run to in order to get some massive salary. I am quite sure that there are a lot of smart and capable people who would be willing to work for $1+ million/year. The few who would refuse it can walk if they want.

I did say that envisioning someone trying to stack expensive middle managers in to puff their own salary.

My notion is by no means set in stone and I am happy to adapt it so it makes sense. Perhaps some calculation to account for average salary and/or including total number of employees. I am no math guru but I am sure someone could come up with a formula that would benefit an executive by either raising salaries or increasing the number of employees.

That would make more sense as a CEO of an agribusiness (for example) may have loads of cheap labor on the payroll but benefit less than a CEO of an accounting firm with lots of expensive accountants on staff.

They could have, but they didn’t. By requiring shareholders to approve officers’ compensations, it incentivizes a CEO to get shareholder participation rather than let them passively accept whatever management wants. This places additional burdens on both the CEO and the shareholders, but I think it’s justified.

A bad CEO can cost 125,000 jobs all on his own.

You want to talk about perverse incentives and unintended consequences? Let’s brainstorm a few:

  1. I’d hate to be the lowest-paid guy in the company. 'Cause guess who’s job is on the block when the CEO gets his pay bumped by 30X the difference between my salary and the next-lowest paid?

  2. Would you like to work for that company that employs 500,000 workers doing manufacturing, where many of them are minimum wage? The best we can pay you is about $600,000 per year. Or, would you like to be CEO of this high-flying derivatives firm where the lowest paid employee makes $80K? Then we can pay you 2.4 million. I guess the workers are going to get stuck with the lousiest CEOs around.

  3. New board plan: The company will spin off its manufacturing to Malaysia, and only retain corporate head offices in the U.S. Malaysian operations will be carried out through separate companies under profit-sharing agreements. We get cheaper labor, and can increase our salaries! Whoo hoo.

  4. Sorry, we’ve been paying you in stock, and our stock went up enough to hit your cap. You now have no incentive to work harder to get the stock to go higher.

  5. Only for public companies, you say? Well, there’s no way in hell we’re going public then. I guess the people lose out on the additional transparency and liquidity.

  6. Hmm… I’ve been given $1 million in stock each year, but because I’m such an awesome CEO, they’re now worth $100 million. If I stay with the company I can’t cash them out because it will violate the cap. Retirement time!

  7. Canada doesn’t have these rules? Well hell, let’s move to Canada. We can leave many operations here, but head offices will be incorporated there.

  8. Hey you, middle manager! You’re making $450,000 right now. How would you like to become CEO and take on ten times the responsibility and have every decision scrutinized by the press and a public anxious for CEO heads? Oh, by the way… Since we hire minimum wage people, we can’t really give you much more in the way of salary. Oh, you won’t do it? How about that lemon in the office down the hall? I hear he’s more motivated by status and the opportunity for graft, so he’d be perfect.

I could go on all day. Then there are the consequences we can’t even predict. What you’re trying to do is to set price controls for CEOs, and the history of price controls is generally that they are a disaster. They’ll lead to distortions, and then you’ll want more controls to correct for the distortions. Then those will lead to more controls… This is what Hayek called “the road to serfdom”. Piling regulation on top of regulation in an attempt to control a complex economy, always in pursuit of perfect social justice. It just never works out that way.

It doesn’t work. Salary needs to be tied to available skill level. If you go back to the mid 19th century there were a number of communes that were successful for a short time and then broke apart as they got larger. The creators of wealth don’t need your help telling them how much they’re worth. They can create their wealth in another country and THAT is what the law of unintended consequences will do.

It is the average wage…not lowest wage. Go ahead and fire all the janitors and see where that gets you. The CEO salary may raise $20/year losing those low level jobs and your workplace turns into a cesspit.

I modified my proposal a few back recognizing this very issue. Do it by (just an example) $15/worker or average of all salaries, whichever is higher and their choice which to use. Don’t get hung up on my numbers…I am sure a workable number with a bit of research could be met that would see the head of an agribusiness getting paid equivalent to the head of a hedge fund.

They already do this. So what is new? The executives, if they live in the US, are still subject to the cap. It is still a publicly traded company in the US. Have fun trying to delist yourself from the NYSE in favor of the Malaysian stock exchange. If a lot of CEOs want to move to Malaysia and become a Malaysian citizen to make more money fine. I doubt many will choose that.

You only get “XXX” amount of stock in that year as compensation. If you continue to make the company prosper that stock will become more valuable over time. Cash out when you retire. Makes loads more sense to me than what it is today where they get the stock pegged at an old mark, inflate the stock short term, then cash out.

Fine…your choice. Except when you go public as the initial owner you will be holding scads of stock going in which will be worth a fortune in short order (that initial stock you hold is not compensation…you own the company). By going public you can grow the company far larger and see your stock split and become more and more valuable. You OWN a piece now of a MUCH bigger company. You want to skip that fine. You are the owner. Have fun.

Not so. The stock you are given each year must be under the cap. Next year you double the company size and the stock you got last year is worth twice as much. Neat how that works, incentive is in the right place. GROW the company!

Shareholders and the Board of Directors are going to agree to moving the whole company just so the CEO can collect a bigger paycheck? I seriously doubt that. If he doesn’t like his compensation he can go somewhere else. I should note that the 30:1 cap is still higher than almost anywhere else in the world as is. I doubt they will find jobs in Canada that pay a whole lot better but they are free to try.

Again I note there should be a modification for number of employees. Further, people are drawn more by power I think than wealth. Can we think of anyone like that? Let’s see…

  • Oversees the largest economy in the world and responsible for 350 million people
  • Has every move scrutinized to the Nth degree
  • Many people would like to kill him, needs a huge security detail for protection
  • Made more money elsewhere than the current job
  • Current salary: $400,000/year and no stock options

That is the President of the United States and there is no shortage of people queuing up for the job.

The lack of controls has provably been a disaster. CEOs themselves have even acknowledged their compensation is dysfunctional in the extreme (not that they do not happily accept them). Yet here we are. All your “market will sort it out” sensibilities has not worked. Indeed the issue just continued to grow.

Happy to put a sunset clause in such a law. Let it run for five or ten years and see how it goes.

The point is not to come up with solutions to the problems I posted - that was 5 minutes of thought on my part. The problem is that when you introduce laws like this, they come with deadweight loss. The company now expends more effort getting around the law than they did before, and that’s effort that comes at the expense of more productive effort.

You yourself just identified one additional problem - such a system might attract more people who are in it for the power and glory, and fewer who just want to grow a company and get rich. Are you sure that’s such a good thing?

I already cited an example of the perverse incentives that came out of the last attempts to regulate CEO behavior. What makes you think you are smarter and can figure out all the ways in which new laws might screw things up? A lot of these changes are not going to be immediately visible - for example, what if your law has the long-term effect of lowering the quality of CEOs because the best and brightest no longer aspire to it? You’d never know. Oh, 50 years from now someone might look back and say, “how come those guys back in the 20th century seemed so much better at running their companies than the lemons we’re stuck with now?”

An economy is a self-organizing system. It is not a deterministic machine. You can poke and prod it to try to change behavior, but you can never fully predict how it’s going to react. That’s why central planning always fails, and why price controls always come with perverse effects no one saw coming.

As an analogy, what would you say to someone who tried to fine-tune an ecoology? “There’s just too many snails. Let’s introduce some lizards. Whoa! The lizards turned out to be a food supply for raccoons, and now we’re overrun! Better bring in some wolves! Oh, crap. Now the wolves are eating all the rodents too, and the owls are starving. Time for more rodents!”

Trying to ‘manage’ an economy full of humans who are creative and have free will is MUCH harder than managing an ecology. They’ll actively try to thwart your grand plan. They behave in much more complex ways. And the interactions in a capitalist system are so complex that no one can predict the price of any given stock even an hour or two into the future. And yet, some people think they can just start passing laws and fine-tune the system so that it works better.

So for your president analogy - that kind of makes my point about selecting people who want power. Would you rather have your company run by Jack Welch or Richard Nixon? Maybe George Bush? How about Jimmy Carter? Bill Clinton? Lyndon Johnson? Would you want ANY of those people as the CEO of General Motors?

Just have to post to point out how companies get around these sorts of laws in Mexico. Companies operating in Mexico are subject to laws that require that 10% of the company’s profits have to be paid out to the workers. Managers are exempt from the profit sharing.

Given this, I’ve seen Mexican companies form two entites: one entity holds all the IP, market risk, entreprenual risk, etc., and might have as its only employee a general manager who is exempt from the profit-sharing laws. The other entity holds all the workers and provides services to the first entity.

Prices for the services that the second entity provides to the first entity are set such that the second entity doesn’t have much or any profit. That way they don’t have to distribute any profit out. All the profit is held in the first entity, whose employee is exempt from profit-sharing.

Which, once again, pretty much sums up the argument nicely. Or resummarizes Hayek. As I enjoy having you do, Sam.

The Road to Serfdom. The Fatal Conceit.

The government must get more involved, because of the problems introduced when the government got involved in the first place. But that’s OK, because if we get enough smart and well-intentioned people in government, and give them enough power, they’ll be able to figure everything out.

And they won’t even need to have more power to legislate and regulate granted to them. 51+% of the voting populace will freely disempower themselves and ask for the government to take that power. Just as Hayek and all those other dead Austrian guys predicted.

About 90+% of these economics, freedom, and libertarian vs. ‘the other’ posts on this Board basically boil down to this. And then again. And then again, some more. But I enjoy watching Sam re-phrase it in umpteen different ways. He’s good at it.

In this case I would say you and Sam are wrong on this. It is when the government got uninvolved and removed regulation that the economy started its race to the bottom.

For all that you worry about vesting too much power in government you guys never seem to acknowledge the reverse situation and seem to presume the market/society will just sort itself out.

Well, we’ve tried that and guess what? It…did…not…work. Indeed the results were awful. Go back to the days of the Robber Barons. Hardly conducive to a healthy economy not to mention any number of issues with how they treated workers. Again today we see the results of the government easing off regulation and just assuming it will all work out. Well, it worked out into a global economic collapse.

You assume rational markets and behavior when it has been shown over and over that people will work to their own self interest when allowed. The whole economic upswing under Bush saw almost no rise in standards for the middle class. Income inequality just got wider. Some few got fabulously wealthy on the backs of everyone else.

I tend to agree caps are dodgy things. In this case I reluctantly get behind the notion because:

A) Despite extensive discussion and recognition and vilification of this very issue NOTHING has changed about it. It has gotten worse if anything (at least until now that the whole economy is in the crapper and there quite literally is no money to pay these guys beyond taxpayer handouts).

B) The current way of doing things has proven itself to be dysfunctional. Incentives were pointed in the wrong direction. Some few made out like bandits despite colossal mistakes. I want a job where I bankrupt my company and get $400+ million for doing it. Seriously…does that make sense to any of you?

C) While it is a cap it is rather narrowly targeted. Some relative few will be affected. As noted before in the grand scheme of things it is a drop in the bucket of the overall economy. While they undoubtedly will dislike it one would hope the shareholders and Board of Directors will restrain the executives from trying to dodge the cap in ways that would actually damage the company and by extension the economy as a whole.

In short I am tired of your way. It sucks. It is a mess. It has produced awful results that have impacted the lives of billions of people. On that basis I think it high time to consider ways of bringing rationality back to all this because clearly they are utterly incapable of doing it on their own.

Setting aside the argument about regulation/free market, I’m not convinced that your proposal will have any real net positive impact on the economy at large. You seem to be insisting that it “just will.”

Why does the economy work better with CEOs who are paid no higher than 30x the average compensation in their company?

There’s a pretty significant body of economic literature that shows that economic inequality leads to:
[ul][li]Slower economic growth;[/li]
[li]Crime;[/li]
[li]Violence;[/li]
[li]Political instability [PDF];[/li]
[li]And various other social ills.[/li]
[/ul]
So there are plenty of reasons to want to minimize income inequality. Probably better accomplished through higher and more progressive tax rates than through income caps, though.

What the hell. I have a little time tonight.

P1. What didn’t work about the ‘Robber Baron’ era? You seem to assert that on its face, somehow it was bad. That the evil of the ‘Robber Baron’ era is self-evident.

I assume you are talking about the era from about 1870 to 1914. Roughly, the time of the Transcontinental Railroad to the beginning of WWI.

Why don’t you do a couple of things before you come back. Go and research:

  1. Average life expectancy and infant mortality improvements during that span

  2. The consumption of oil and electricity, and the trend of their cost/unit during that span

  3. What common forms of communication were available at the beginning and end of that span (hint: A pony carried a piece of paper at the beginning, and people’s voices were traversing amongst the ions at the end)

  4. How many immigrants fled desperately poor countries to get into the United States during that span. Why? Beats me. According to you, the US sounded like a horrible, horrible place.

  5. Total employment increase during that span

  6. The average time and cost it took a human being to travel 1000 miles during that span

  7. The average years of education of an adult male at the beginning and end of that span

And then come back and tell me again how much the Robber Baron era ‘sucked’.

Or, is your logic

  • There were some really rich people during that time
  • There were some slums with really poor people during that time

Therefore, it was bad. Am I close?

P2. Your first sentence is a circular tautology. Rational markets are by definition each person acting in their self-interest.

A few got wealthy ‘on the backs’ of everyone else? Explain. Who were the few? Who was ‘everyone else’?

P5. My way? What is your way? To disempower yourself and have someone in Washington, D.C. tell you what to do? Is that your way?

Boy, that sounds great. Having someone in D.C. telling me what products I can buy and can’t buy, how much I can charge for my services, and taking my money to bail out bankrupt companies. I can’t wait.

How can ‘my way’ impact the lives of billions of people? All it effects is me, and the people I choose to conduct business with.

Unless the government gets involved of course, to overprint fiat money, regulate such fiat systems poorly and socialize losses. Which is what caused the current crisis. And like Hayek predicted, you now want to give them still more power and authority to ‘fix it’. That’ll be great.

About the only thing I would be in favor of is enforced transparency–i.e. the compensation for upper management of public companies must be made public in full (with the caveat that there are problems in determining what defines “upper management”).

Your first link makes a few unsupported leaps. Regardless, it does not suggest that income inequality has a strong relationship with economic growth.

Martin Hyde’s question stands. What benefit, exactly, will this produce?

The capitalist system operates within the rules set by society. Rules, laws, and economic policy strengthen and affirm social values. The question is: What kind of society do Americans want to shape through laws and economic policy? Firms adapt to the rules and laws set by society; firms don’t set the rules and force society to adapt.

Society has every right to limit CEO compensation and concentrated wealth with a high progressive tax rate or specific laws, and set minimum wage to meet basic living standards. This isn’t radical or communist or akin to complex ecology. This is simple economic policy that reflects an advanced civil society and a healthy democracy. Otherwise, it is feudalism and corporate wealthy elites are the liege lords.

This is common disconnect with all these economics threads. Descriptive vs prescriptive.

complex ecology – Sam is talking about DESCRIBING how the interactions of billions of humans cannot be predicted and therefore “planned.” The complex network of human preferences forms the ecology. Not even the most power supercomputer in the world can unravel this.

simple economic policy – you are talking PRESCRIBING an ideal utopia of economic behaviors. Try and PRESCRIBE a system of salary controls and the ecology of humans will naturally work around any rules or “policies” you put in place. The natural human order finds a way to reward people by circumventing laws with legal techniques.

If people don’t understand the differences between DESCRIPTIVE vs PRESCRIPTIVE, they will keep talking right past each other. Please see the “is/ought controversy” or “fact/value distinction” or “Descriptive vs Normative ethics”

For over a month, I have been writing a paper on the role of executive compensation in causing the financial crisis. The following briefly summarizes a few of my findings:

High Pay: So What?
The fact that an executive receives sums of money so large that they are incomprehensible to the overwhelming majority of the world population does not mean that an executive is overpaid or unfairly paid. If executives increased the profitability of a corporation in a way that is sustainable, on what basis could someone object to executives being compensated for their performance? Consider the following:

Suppose that the intrinsic going concern value of Corporation X is $1 Billion. Now suppose that Executive Team A increases the intrinsic going concern value to $2 Billion. Further suppose that the next best executive team, Executive Team B, would have only increased the value of Corporation X by $250 Million and demanded $50 million in compensation. If Executive Team A is paid $700 Million, on what basis are they overcompensated?

While my aforementioned example is a useful theoretical tool, in practice valuing an executive is incredibly difficult. This is because human labor does not lend itself to a completely objective valuation. Executive compensation is a product of the bargaining process, where a decision is reached based upon what the corporation is willing to give, based upon their subjective valuation of an executive, and what the director is willing to accept. Therefore, what is unfair about the compensation decision? The decision is approved by the shareholders who are the ones who pay the executives’ salaries by way of lost earnings. It is further important to realize that $20 million to a major financial institution is not a significant sum.

The modern theory of the corporation is that proposed by Berle-Means. Under this theory, a corporation is an entity, owned by its’ shareholders, whose sole purpose is to earn profits for their shareholders. Therefore, directors and executives are approved, along with their compensation, by shareholders. Unless you are a shareholder in a corporation you have no right to complain about the compensation of an executive.

Even if an executive makes poor business decisions and causes a corporation to become bankrupt, an executive is hired and compensated based on the belief that they have the greatest chance of maximizing the value of a corporation and the least chance of destroying it. Errors in judgment are not preventable.

The “Systemic Risk Theory”
While the actions of financial executives have certainly, albeit indirectly, caused substantial difficulties for many people and greatly harmed the international economy, to adjust compensation levels because of the effects on non-shareholders, requires a complete upheaval of our capitalist system. First, it would impede upon the private right of contract. Second, under this argument, it would be totally justified to substantially confine compensation for jobs that are viewed not to convey substantial society benefits. For instance how would you feel if Congress decided that you profession was frivolous and capped your compensation at minimum wage.

Conspiracy Theorists Debunked
Widespread blame for the current financial crisis has been placed upon “those greedy executives” who knowingly undertook activities that would lead to large short-term gains and even larger long-term losses, in order to greatly profit. An earlier post denoted Richard S. Fuld, Jr., the Chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers as the “Poster Child” for problems with executive compensation. An analysis of Mr. Fulds’ compensation reveals that he did not profit from Lehmans’ subprime activities and that he actually lost money. The compensation received. By Mr. Fuld, before and during Lehmans’ subprime activities was not materially different. Before Lehman’s subprime activities, Lehmans’ stock was trading around $35 per share. As the result of Lehmans’ subprime activities, Mr. Fuld sold ½ of his shares at inflated prices and ½ of his shares the deflated price of less than $0.50 per share for a total of roughly $270 million. If Mr. Fuld had sold his shares at a price of $35, he would have also received $270 million. Therefore Mr. Fuld did not profit. In fact, because the shares and options issued to Mr. Fuld after 2002 had not vested, Mr. Fuld lost a several hundred million dollars. The amounts of Mr. Fulds’ losses are even greater when considered the non-receipt of compensation resulting from Lehman’s non-existence.

James E. Cayne, lost substantially more than Mr. Fuld because while Mr. Fuld received the same amount of compensation as he would have if the price of Lehman stock remained at the same level as it was prior to the engagement of subprime activities, if Bear Stearns price had done the same, Mr, Cayne would have received an additional $350 Million.

Competition and Market Share: The Real Causes
A paper by Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache identifies 30 major banking crises within the last thirty years. The majority of these crises appear to have followed a common pattern. First, deregulatory measures lead to an increase in competition. The increase in competition decreases the market share enjoyed by the previously less regulated entities, usually investment banks, as the result of the previously more regulated entities, usually commercial banks entrance into the market. In order to maintain their overall level of market share, investment banks are forced to enter into new and scarcely used domain of securities activities, which entail more risk. The new activities result in a sudden credit expansion, which in turn create an asset bubble. The crisis results after the bubble bursts because the dramatic fall in prices results in overinvestment, which results in an increase in non-performing loans and other credit losses. These losses cause widespread bankruptcies and a banking crisis.

Our crisis follows an identical pattern. Deregulation came in the form of Gramm-Leach Bliley Act of 1999 which allowed commercial banks to engage in investment banking and insurance activities. The pressure on investment banks to increase market share was largely compounded by the burst of the “Tech Bubble” which meant a loss of tremendous profits in the form of IPO underwriting fees and Venture Capital investment in technology firms. The need to maintain market share resulted in an increase in subprime activities. This increased credit because subprime loans provided a plentiful source of credit to those who previously were unable to obtain any. This led to the housing bubble and the rest is history.
As mentioned in this forum, executives in other countries do not get paid nearly as much as they do in the US. This fails to consider that foreign executives are not paid in stock options. This means that if a corporation was to perform poorly or average this gap would be largely closed. Yet in these other countries there were many identical financial crisis where such adverse incentives did not exist. For example in Japan, CEO’s are paid $500,000 per year. In 1996 during the Jusen crisis, which almost toppled the Japanese Ministry of Finance, CEO’s made $250,000. In Japan the reward of being a CEO is the societal prestige accompanied by such a position. This means that a Japanese executive would have every incentive not to engage in activities that lead to large short term profits and larger long term losses because to do so would cripple their reputation. Yet, the Jusen crisis, which is identical to our current crisis, still plagued Japan.

CITATIONS:

Charles M. Elson, Executive Overcompensation—A Broad Based Solution, 34 B.C. L. Rev. 937, 945, (1993)

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., and Detragiache, E. (1998), ‘Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility’, Working Paper 98/83, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund.

Peter Englund, The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences, Oxford Review Of Exonomic Policy, Vol. 15, No. 3 (1999) at 81-82

Curtis J. Milhaupt & Geoffrey P. Miller, Japanese Financial Regulation as Seen From the “Jusen Problem” 26 (1997) at 19-21.

See Noelle T. Heintz and Robert M. Travisano, What is Past is Prologue: Why Congress Should Reject Current Financial Reform Bills and Breathe New Life Into Glass-Steagall, 373 STJJLC 381-382 (Winter 1998);

Executive Compensation has been made public for many years. In my post immediately preceeding this one, all data included was based upon Proxy Filings (Form 14-A) and Change in Beneficial Ownership Form (Form 4) that are filed with the SEC.

That’s not how it works. Billions of people trade with each other. The result of those trades sets the rules by which society evolves.

It seems there’s a recurring fallacy among many that some powerful forces are guiding society. If the government doesn’t do it, than a cabal of the 1% of the wealthiest people will. Do you want to be controlled by rich oligarchs and wall street fatcats, or by a powerful central government?

That is simply a false dichotomy. The opposite of government power is not corporate power. The opposite of government power is distributed power. Power distributed to individuals and groups of individuals with common interests.

Successful companies are not those that figure out how to manipulate society - successful companies are those which best respond to the emergent needs of as many people as possible as society changes and grows in a self-directed manner.

In fact, the greatest concentration of corporate power is usually found in proximity to great government power. The railroads had a monopoly - because government gave it to them. GM ran roughshod over the wishes of the market and was about to be punished for it - until government bailed it out. GE stands to gain hundreds of millions of dollars and great influence over the energy infrastructure of the country. And not surprisingly, it spent millions of dollars lobbying politicians for the right to do so.

That’s highly debatable. It’s certainly not the kind of social axiom you are claiming. Many of us think that property rights come ahead of your distaste at seeing some people make a lot more money than you do.

There is no such thing as ‘simple economic policy’, and anyone who thinks there is doesn’t know anything about economics. The simplest regulations can have far-reaching consequences that no one can predict. No one knew that ‘mark to market’ accounting rules mandated under Sarbanes-Oxley would help contribute to a large economic crash. No one knew that passing a regulation limiting golden parachute pay would actually increase the prevalence of golden parachutes. The politicians who initially voted for Brazilian sugar tariffs had no idea that it would eventally cause an entire energy infrastructure to be built around an inefficient source, or that it would make your coke taste like crap.

And even among government regulations, there is a big difference between those regulations which simply seek to correct flaws found in the market, such as information asymmetry or problems of the commons, and government regulations which seek to actively manage industry and guide social and economic direction. When governments do this, they fail miserably. Rent controls, ‘wars’ on poverty and drugs, business subsidies and targeted taxes, the picking of winning and losing technologies by government agents, attempting to break down perfectly functioning markets because some in government don’t like the choices people make.

Capping CEO salaries falls in this latter category, as does things like mandating a certain auto technology or heavily subsidizing one energy source at the expense of others because some lobbyists have told you it’s the best. These are the kinds of laws that are more akin to releasing lizards into an ecosystem to keep the bugs down so you can enjoy your nature walk. You really have no idea what the result will be.

You know, an examination of what happened to the economy under the Soviet Union would be enlightening. Stalin was a monster, but the Soviets had their share of leaders who actually tried to make the system work for the people. The ranks of government were full of well-meaning bureaucrats who actually tried hard to allocate the resources of the country. They had gigantic models of interactions, and maintained the books on hundreds of thousands of items and tried to track the flow of materials to rid themselves of their chronic shortages and gluts and low economic performance. They couldn’t do it. And this was an economy that was far smaller than the U.S’s, and this was decades ago, before the rise of the global economy.

Hell, politicians have repeatedly failed at much simpler tasks. For example, numerous cities around the planet have attempted to manage their populations through rent controls. They always fail. The market adapts in ways they can’t predict. Perverse incentives cause unintended consequences directly opposed to what they are trying to do.

The U.S. government just finished writing bills allocating well over a trillion dollars in resources. They did it in a matter of days, and the people who decided on it were people with no experience or understanding of the industries they were affecting. Their decisions are guided by lobbyists who represent special interests, and resources are allocated by the seniority of the politicians and which state’s politicians manage to be sitting on important committees.

How on earth could anyone think that the result could be even remotely efficient as compared to the choices the market would have made with the same funds - the market being the collective knowledge of millions of people in free exchange, with prices acting as a feedback system almost instantly reflecting the new state of demand and supply each time the balance shifted. You’re replacing an amazingly complex, massively parallel system that has negative feedback controls with a handful of politicians who know almost nothing about that which they are regulating, acting in a rush while the political winds blow in their favor.

I’ve been making this same argument for 30 years. Along the way, I’ve always found people who agreed that yes, in the past politicians weren’t that smart. But whoa nelly, this NEW plan they’ve got is just the bees knees and will fix everything. I remember smug people saying that Minitel was an example of good industrial policy, because it brought France into the computer age. Turned out, it caused France to miss the start of the internet revolution, and they’ve been playing catch-up since. I remember being told that the Japanese MITI agency with their 5 year industrial plans was obviously superior and the Japanese were going to take over the world because they were smart and planned their industries and governments made ‘investments’ in industry which were going to work miracles. Instead, it almost wrecked them.

Now the stimulus package is the answer, and a grand program to create ‘green’ jobs, and a new plan to have government make health care more efficient, and all kinds of good stuff. And I expect 30 years from now I’ll be having this same argument and people will be saying, “Oh, sure, that Obama administration screwed up. But now the REAL smart guys are here, and they’re going to fix it all.”