# Caucuses and primaries - Saturday March 5, 2016

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [March 5, 2016, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056 "2016-03-05T23:07:04Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/41 "2016-03-06T01:50:56Z")

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> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Be careful what you wish for! Cruz may be insane but he’s a lot shrewder and more electable than Trump.

I would hate for any of the Republican candidates to win in November, but while the prospect of Trump in the White House is merely disgusting, the prospect of Cruz in the WH is terrifying.

And it now looks like while Trump can shoot someone on a crowded street and not lose any voters, Cruz can eat a booger on national TV and GAIN voters!

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/42 "2016-03-06T01:52:19Z")

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> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> Be careful what you wish for! Cruz may be insane but he’s a lot shrewder and more electable than Trump.

Shrewder, maybe. More electable in a general election? Not a chance. There’s an argument that Trump might be able to appeal to a lot of low-information swing voters. Cruz would be freakin’ Barry Goldwater on steroids.

Wonder what the GOP would do if Cruz won the nomination, and lost by the biggest margin since Mondale. They wouldn’t be able to claim they lost because they didn’t have a True Conservative as their candidate, but they’ve gone too far down the rabbit hole to move back to the center like the GOP did after Goldwater, who at the time was clearly a one-off.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/43 "2016-03-06T01:53:34Z")

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> [@Gorsnak](#):
>
> Apparently the people of Maine have forgotten how to count. I blame Smoothie, D-Money, and Shifty.

😃

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**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/44 "2016-03-06T01:57:31Z")

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> [@Gorsnak](#):
>
> Apparently the people of Maine have forgotten how to count.

Some places caucused in the morning, while other places went in the afternoon. The latest one seems to have been scheduled to end at 7 PM:

[http://mainegop.com/caucus/](http://mainegop.com/caucus/)

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**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/45 "2016-03-06T02:04:37Z")

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And just as I posted my last, Maine results came in for Cruz.

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**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/46 "2016-03-06T02:07:10Z")

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Sanders appears to have won Nebraska.

I know that there is little to no chance that he will win the nomination, but he is strong enough for Clinton to take notice. He’s not just being brushed aside.

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**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/47 "2016-03-06T02:08:11Z")

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> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> And just as I posted my last, Maine results came in for Cruz.

That went from 9 to 100 percent in a hurry.

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**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/48 "2016-03-06T02:13:51Z")

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You could say that Trump does badly in caucus states because organizing them takes more money than he is willing to spend.

Another theory, I’m afraid, is that Trump does best with a secret ballot.

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**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/49 "2016-03-06T02:19:54Z")

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Trump is still leading in Kentucky, and appears to be strong in Appalachia. Urban areas have still not reported.

Looks like Clinton will clean up Louisiana, and Trump has a 2-1 lead over Cruz.

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**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/50 "2016-03-06T02:22:59Z")

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> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> Another theory, I’m afraid, is that Trump does best with a secret ballot.

I think most (if not all) Republican caucuses _do_ use secret ballots. They don’t use the awful clumping-in-corners process the Democrats use.

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**Author:** ![GloryDays](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e9c0ed/32.png) [@GloryDays](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GloryDays)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/51 "2016-03-06T02:23:29Z")

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Louisiana will be a lean R state in November. It has a Democratic governor due to Jindal. Hillary Clinton could make Louisiana competitive in November.

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**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/52 "2016-03-06T02:23:29Z")

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The Maine results really confuse me. This is a state that has elected two moderate Republicans to the Senate. Yet they vote for Cruz?

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**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/53 "2016-03-06T02:24:14Z")

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Bernie Sanders supporters are sore winners on social media. Maybe some of them understand delegate math, but I am thinking more of them just want to prove their antiestablishment cred rather than accomplish something

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**Author:** ![GloryDays](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e9c0ed/32.png) [@GloryDays](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GloryDays)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/54 "2016-03-06T02:25:10Z")

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> [@Frank](#):
>
> The Maine results really confuse me. This is a state that has elected two moderate Republicans to the Senate. Yet they vote for Cruz?

Cruz has a libertarian feel about him. Olympia Snowe, the former Maine senator would probably vote for Hillary Clinton like Christie Todd Whitman, the former New Jersey governor in the 90s.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/55 "2016-03-06T02:25:21Z")

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> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> And just as I posted my last, Maine results came in for Cruz.

They’re doing it just to annoy you. 🙂

Just to get the numbers in here, here’s [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politics/kansas-kentucky-louisiana-maine-nebraska-highlights/index.html):

> [@](#):
>
> Cruz won the Maine caucuses with 45.84% of the vote, short of the 50% threshold that would have given him all of the state’s 23 delegates. Trump was second at 32.55%, Kasich was at 12.17%, while Rubio was fourth at 8 %, the state party said.

[Green Papers](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ME-R) is saying 12 delegates for Cruz, 9 for Trump, and 2 for Kasich. IOW, today’s more about bragging rights than about delegates.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/56 "2016-03-06T02:26:36Z")

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> [@GloryDays](#):
>
> Cruz has a libertarian feel about him.

Excuse me, but Cruz is a fucking _theocrat_.

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**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/57 "2016-03-06T02:27:09Z")

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Big whoop about Maine. Cruz gets 12 delegates, Trump 9, Kasich 2. :rolleyes:

And looking at the amounts of votes that went to Rubio and Kasich, I’m betting the majority of those would’ve been Cruz bound.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/58 "2016-03-06T02:27:10Z")

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Yeah, but Cruz creaming Trump in a Northeastern state is a pretty big deal.

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**Author:** ![GloryDays](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e9c0ed/32.png) [@GloryDays](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GloryDays)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/59 "2016-03-06T02:27:48Z")

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> [@dalej42](#):
>
> Bernie Sanders supporters are sore winners on social media. Maybe some of them understand delegate math, but I am thinking more of them just want to prove their antiestablishment cred rather than accomplish something

True. Some of them are annoying though. They may vote for Jill Stein or some stoner.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/60 "2016-03-06T02:29:03Z")

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> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> It’s beginning to look that way. Rubio will likely drop out if and when he loses Florida, which by current polling seems likely. Kasich may as well drop out now. And it will be down to a two-way race between, literally, two crazies. Just amazing!
> 
> Trump is catching up in Maine but at 9% reporting Cruz still has a substantial margin.

Actually, predictit and Nate Silver now favor Kasich to win Ohio. There’s probably a case for Rubio to make an exit now, but Kasich looks to be in for the duration, if only to deny Trump and Cruz a majority.

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