# Caucuses and primaries - Saturday March 5, 2016 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 5, 2016, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056 "2016-03-05T23:07:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![GloryDays](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e9c0ed/32.png) [@GloryDays](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GloryDays)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/61 "2016-03-06T02:29:22Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Excuse me, but Cruz is a fucking _theocrat_. True. I was accused of being one a month ago by some here, but that’s another story. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/62 "2016-03-06T02:40:18Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Louisville, Lexington/Frankfurt, suburbs of Cincinnati. I’ve got to say, I think they’ll go for Trump. Once again, you should never listen to a word I say. Franklin County (Frankfort, the state capital), and two of the three Cincinnati suburb counties have gone for Cruz. Louisville and Lexington are all I am grasping to for a shred of credibility. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/63 "2016-03-06T02:42:08Z")
Louisiana results finally starting to come in; Trump’s running well ahead so far, but the % of the total vote is small still. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/64 "2016-03-06T02:42:09Z")
Cruz is a weird combination of theocrat and libertarian/constitutionalist. He’s half Rick Santorum half Rand Paul. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/65 "2016-03-06T02:55:11Z")
Assuming that Trump holds on in Kentucky, today is a wash for Trump and Cruz. Maybe even better for Trump, as it looks like he might win more delegates. Neither Rubio nor Kasich will withdraw till the 16th. So, no difference from yesterday. Same on the Democratic side. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/66 "2016-03-06T03:01:23Z")
Big difference. Trump looks a lot less inevitable. He’s now down to a 65% chance of winning the nomination according to predictit, and the odds of a brokered convention now stand at 43%. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/67 "2016-03-06T03:09:17Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Big difference. Trump looks a lot less inevitable. I agree. As I said upthread, Cruz was _trailing_ Trump in the polls in Kansas as recently as Thursday. Yet, he will win there tonight with _over twice as many votes as Trump_. Something seems to have changed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/68 "2016-03-06T03:11:19Z")
Cruz has outperformed his polling in every race I believe. Trump has underperformed. Cruz definitely has the momentum now, although it doesn’t look like he can win a first ballot majority. Which is what us reasonable Republicans are hoping for at this point. Let’s have an old fashioned convention! ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/69 "2016-03-06T03:24:15Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Once again, you should never listen to a word I say. Franklin County (Frankfort, the state capital), and two of the three Cincinnati suburb counties have gone for Cruz. Louisville and Lexington are all I am grasping to for a shred of credibility. The third Cincinnati suburb and Lexington went for Cruz. Trump won Louisville! My prediction is not entirely wrong, therefore I am right! ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/70 "2016-03-06T03:25:59Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > I agree. > > As I said upthread, Cruz was _trailing_ Trump in the polls in Kansas as recently as Thursday. Yet, he will win there tonight with _over twice as many votes as Trump_. Something seems to have changed. Which is what I have been saying since Cruz won Oklahoma on Super Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/71 "2016-03-06T03:31:17Z")
BTW, the networks may have called LA for Trump, but Nate Silver isn’t so sure and Trump’s margin keeps shrinking. Trump is still struggling to win a third of the vote. I’m just not sure how his supporters can feel that this somehow entitles him to the nomination if he falls short in total delegates. When the rules are on your side, argue the rules. When the will of the voters are on your side, argue the will of the voters. If neither is on your side, just accept that your guy didn’t get it done. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/72 "2016-03-06T03:32:52Z")
KY and LA are still interesting at this point. According to [decisiondeskhq.com](http://decisiondeskhq.com), Cruz and Trump are neck and neck 31-34% with 56% reporting. LA is almost as close, with them running 38-41% with 57% reporting. Either way, yeah, Not a great night for Trump, and a brokered convention looks more likely each day. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/73 "2016-03-06T04:09:44Z")
So if I calculated correctly Clinton won 59 delegates to Sanders’ 50 tonight. That will likely move back some after Maine tomorrow. And it increasingly looks like Kasich will in fact be the last traditional lane candidate standing, assuming he can pull off Ohio. (Whether or not Rubio suspends today or waits until after he is humiliated in FL, he is done.) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/74 "2016-03-06T04:16:36Z")
Absolutely embarrassing day for Rubes. Three third place finishes and a fourth place finish, never even breaking the 17% mark. Guess Republican voters still aren’t ready to elect a little person. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/75 "2016-03-06T04:56:11Z")
I wonder if Rubio’s poor showing and Trump underperforming are a result of the vulgarities those two engaged in at the debate. Maybe the Republican voters still have some sanity. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/76 "2016-03-06T04:57:56Z")
Looks like Trump gets Kentucky and Louisiana, but Cruz gets the most delegates. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/77 "2016-03-06T05:10:29Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So if I calculated correctly Clinton won 59 delegates to Sanders’ 50 tonight. That will likely move back some after Maine tomorrow. > > And it increasingly looks like Kasich will in fact be the last traditional lane candidate standing, assuming he can pull off Ohio. (Whether or not Rubio suspends today or waits until after he is humiliated in FL, he is done.) Agreed, Rubio is done. It’d really be Carsonesque to remain in the race after today’s trouncing. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/78 "2016-03-06T05:19:36Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Bernie Sanders supporters are sore winners on social media. Maybe some of them understand delegate math, but I am thinking more of them just want to prove their antiestablishment cred rather than accomplish something You mean the way they treat a Sanders win as “Bernie wins! Feel the Bern! On to the White House! Don’t underplay this, mainstream media, like you have been doing for the past year or so!”, but a Sanders loss as, “Count the delegates! Don’t go reporting this as a Hillary landslide like you always do! And don’t count the Superdelegates yet as, once they see the inevitability of the Bernie campaign, they’ll desert Hillary just as they did in 2008!”? ---
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/79 "2016-03-06T05:42:01Z")
> [@scabpicker](#): > > KY and LA are still interesting at this point. According to [decisiondeskhq.com](http://decisiondeskhq.com), Cruz and Trump are neck and neck 31-34% with 56% reporting. LA is almost as close, with them running 38-41% with 57% reporting. > > Either way, yeah, Not a great night for Trump, and a brokered convention looks more likely each day. No no, Trump won Louisiana, and he still far ahead of Cruz. I don’t see coming states being Cruz wins, Ohio and Florkda, if they do not go to their hometown guys, will for sure go to Trump. While Cruz did well in those states, he should have won the Southern states. He is not winning enough with evangelicals. Later on in the calendar there will be New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey etc, which look very set for Trump. Also Trump comes in second whenever he does not win, Cruz has varied in rankings wildly. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056/80 "2016-03-06T05:47:21Z")
> [@Nema98](#): > > Florkda This coinage is a thing of beauty. Florkda. Florkda. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/caucuses-and-primaries-saturday-march-5-2016/748056.md?page=5)