# Cecil Adams Predicts the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict **URL:** \ **Category:** Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports\ **Created:** [March 14, 2015, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956 "2015-03-14T03:38:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/1 "2015-03-14T03:38:00Z")
Well sort of: [http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/799/is-it-true-there-has-never-been-a-war-between-two-democracies](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/799/is-it-true-there-has-never-been-a-war-between-two-democracies) > [@](#): > > We now have a proliferation of poor democracies in the wake of communism’s collapse. Will they refrain from attacking one another, as their authoritarian or totalitarian predecessors did not? One considers India vs. Pakistan, Russia vs. Ukraine. Clearly the notion that democracies will not make war on one another now faces its great test. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/2 "2015-03-14T05:29:14Z")
Well, I think we might soon see a No True Scotsman argument in the future. “_Western_, wealthy democracies don’t fight each other.” “\*Western, liberal, parliamentary \*wealthy democracies don’t fight each other.” ---
**Author:** ![buddy431](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6a8cbe/32.png) [@buddy431](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddy431)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/3 "2015-03-14T07:09:00Z")
The [Russia-Georgia war](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War) from 2008 fits the bill too I think. India and Pakistan have had some [minor border skirmishes](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes), but nothing that most people would call a war. The [2006 Israel-Lebanon War](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War) probably counts. Cecil mentioned the 1983 war, calling it “confusing” (understatement of the year there). I think in 2006 both participants were undeniably democracies. Any others? I was thinking the Ethiopia-Eritrea war, but I’m not sure that Eritrea can really be called a democracy in any real sense. Same problem with the Sudan-South Sudan conflicts: Omar al-Bashir holds all the power in Sudan, even if there are nominal elections. Edit: Of course [Wikipedia has an article](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_between_democracies) ---
**Author:** ![jezzaOZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@jezzaOZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jezzaOZ)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/4 "2015-03-14T07:12:26Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Well, I think we might soon see a No True Scotsman argument in the future. > > “_Western_, wealthy democracies don’t fight each other.” > > “\*Western, liberal, parliamentary \*wealthy democracies don’t fight each other.” Somewhat like the evolving and ever more specific definition of what constitutes recognition of Israel by Palestine? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/5 "2015-03-14T17:27:46Z")
When did Russia become a democracy? ---
**Author:** ![buddy431](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6a8cbe/32.png) [@buddy431](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddy431)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/6 "2015-03-14T18:04:26Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > When did Russia become a democracy? The first presidential election was held on 12 June, 1991. Boris Yeltsin won about 59% of the vote. ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/7 "2015-03-14T22:11:49Z")
To be fair, predicting the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is a little like predicting the sun will rise in the east in the morning. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/8 "2015-03-14T22:55:00Z")
> [@buddy431](#): > > The first presidential election was held on 12 June, 1991. Boris Yeltsin won about 59% of the vote. Sorry. I was being sarcastic. It’s long been ludicrous to equate democracy with elections. As Cecil noted, many people have tried to modify the statement about war by requiring that the nations be liberal democracies, and even that’s a problem to define. Another variant has it that no two nations with McDonalds have ever gone to war. Whatever the truth of that, it’s telling that Russia recently shut down its McDonalds. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2015, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/9 "2015-03-14T23:42:22Z")
On a scale of 1 to 7, with 7 being North Korea and 1 being Denmark, Russia rates a 6 on both civil and political rights. Not free. The Ukraine rates a 3: partly free. Cite: Freedom House’s 2015 report. Israel: 1-2. 1 for political rights, 2 for civil liberties. Lebanon: 5-4: “Partly free”. Georgia: currently 3-3. Sudan: 7-7: not free at all. > **[Freedom in the World 2015: Freedom declines for ninth year](https://freedomhouse.org/article/freedom-world-2015-freedom-declines-ninth-year#.VQTE_eFimBg)** > > More aggressive tactics by authoritarian regimes and an upsurge in terrorist attacks contributed to a disturbing decline in global freedom in 2014.  ---
**Author:** ![buddy431](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6a8cbe/32.png) [@buddy431](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddy431)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2015, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/10 "2015-03-15T00:44:53Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Sorry. I was being sarcastic. It’s long been ludicrous to equate democracy with elections. As Cecil noted, many people have tried to modify the statement about war by requiring that the nations be liberal democracies, and even that’s a problem to define. > > Another variant has it that no two nations with McDonalds have ever gone to war. Whatever the truth of that, it’s telling that Russia recently shut down its McDonalds. :eek: Right, we’re quickly getting into _No True Scotsman_ here. Democracy and freedom do not always go hand in hand. Democracy and wealth do not always go hand in hand. Democracy and peace do not always go hand in hand. Is it true that no two relatively “free” countries have gone to war? Maybe, but that’s probably for the same reason Cecil guesses: There aren’t that many “free” countries, and those that are tend to be wealthy. For the record, the Moscow McDonald’s appears to be open again. Georgia had one when it fought with Russia. Additionally, India and Pakistan both had McDonald’s during their 1999 war. Lebanon and Israel both had McDonald’s during their latest war. ---
**Author:** ![jezzaOZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@jezzaOZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jezzaOZ)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2015, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/11 "2015-03-15T03:25:26Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > On a scale of 1 to 7, with 7 being North Korea and 1 being Denmark, Russia rates a 6 on both civil and political rights. Not free. But note: US Department of State, US Agency for International Development, and Mikhail Khodorkovskyi a Russian exile oligarch and Kremilin opponent are all significant donors to Freedom House. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2015, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/12 "2015-03-15T22:20:50Z")
> [@jezzaOZ](#): > > But note: US Department of State, US Agency for International Development, and Mikhail Khodorkovskyi a Russian exile oligarch and Kremilin opponent are all significant donors to Freedom House. Ok. But I think I could show that Russia is more free than North Korea, which has a rank of 7. Meanwhile, while Turkey’s situation is deteriorating and has a score of 3-4 (partly free), can anybody credibly claim that Russia’s system of _de facto_ one party rule is better? You may not like the ref, but unless you can point to some clearly bad calls charges of bias aren’t entirely convincing. At any rate, it’s just another piece of evidence. To call Russia a democracy is a stretch. ---
**Author:** ![qazwart](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/5fc32e/32.png) [@qazwart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/qazwart)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2015, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/13 "2015-03-16T01:42:03Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Well, I think we might soon see a No True Scotsman argument in the future. > > “_Western_, wealthy democracies don’t fight each other.” > > “\*Western, liberal, parliamentary \*wealthy democracies don’t fight each other.” You can’t count the U.S. in any of these cases. \We’re a republic and not a democracy.\ ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2015, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/14 "2015-03-16T18:32:01Z")
No true Scotsmen have ever gone to war with each other. ---
**Author:** ![thelurkinghorror](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7c8e57/32.png) [@thelurkinghorror](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelurkinghorror)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2015, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/15 "2015-03-16T18:52:25Z")
> [@buddy431](#): > > India and Pakistan have had some [minor border skirmishes](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes), but nothing that most people would call a war. Depends on what you mean by minor, but I’d consider [the 1971 event](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1971) a bona fide war. This was part of Bangladesh’s independence war against Pakistan. I don’t know if I’d assess “democracy.” > [@Sailboat](#): > > No true Scotsmen have ever gone to war with each other. But what were their FREEEEEDOOOOM! House rankings? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2015, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/16 "2015-03-16T19:14:29Z")
> [@Sailboat](#): > > No true Scotsmen have ever gone to war with each other. [I beg to differ](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Civil_War)! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![buddy431](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6a8cbe/32.png) [@buddy431](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddy431)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2015, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/17 "2015-03-16T19:15:52Z")
> [@thelurkinghorror](#): > > Depends on what you mean by minor, but I’d consider [the 1971 event](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1971) a bona fide war. This was part of Bangladesh’s independence war against Pakistan. I don’t know if I’d assess “democracy.” > But what were their FREEEEEDOOOOM! House rankings? I wouldn’t call Pakistan a democracy in 1971 under even a generous definition. They held elections in 1970 that seemed to be fair enough, but the military promptly ignored the results. I will revise my earlier opinion though. I think the [1999 conflict](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War) can be considered a war, albeit a short and limited one, and both nations were democracies at that point. Pakistan did have a succesful coup later that year, so it obviously wasn’t a very stable democracy at the time. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2015, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/18 "2015-03-19T02:38:47Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Cecil Adams Predicts the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict As did anybody watching Russia and Ukraine anytime they weren’t parts of the same country. (shrug) ---
**Author:** ![jezzaOZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a9a28c/32.png) [@jezzaOZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jezzaOZ)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2015, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/19 "2015-03-25T13:38:51Z")
Not exactly a war, but at least an act of war between Democracies when France sent secret agents to New Zealand to blow up the Rainbow Warrior. For some reasons New Zealand is considered easy-meat for various countries including France and Israel - who uses NZ as an unapproved training ground and source of ‘clean’ passports for hostile activities. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2015, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956/20 "2015-03-28T20:29:28Z")
> [@buddy431](#): > > I wouldn’t call Pakistan a democracy in 1971 under even a generous definition. They held elections in 1970 that seemed to be fair enough, but the military promptly ignored the results. This. The entire reason the 1971 war happened was because an East Pakistani\* party won a majority of seats in the legislature, and the West Pakistan-dominated army didn’t think that was the correct result (and decided [to kill everyone](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Searchlight#Background).) The civilian government had already been suspended by 1969 and [Yahya Khan](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Khan#President_of_Pakistan) had declared martial law and become the _de facto_ ruler of Pakistan. It would be inaccurate to call the Pakistan of 1971 a democracy in even the broadest possible terms. The difference between a democracy and a totalitarian regime is that a general takes off his uniform _before_ coming to power in the former. \*as Bangladesh was then known. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cecil-adams-predicts-the-russo-ukrainian-conflict/714956.md?page=2)