# Cenk Uygur running for Pres
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [October 22, 2023, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927 "2023-10-22T17:08:45Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 18
### Author:  [@Hatchie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hatchie)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/341 "2023-10-28T21:35:19Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#):
>
> If you don’t know what weaknesses Joe Biden has, what exactly do you think he should be aware of?
He has got to attack the Republicans on their lack of ideas, and do it way more forcefully. No more “I know Republicans and I can work with them”. I mean, as a matter of rhetoric, then out of the spotlight you make your deals, such as can be made.
Less carrot, more stick.
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### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/342 "2023-10-28T21:40:07Z")
So you see his working with the opposition party as a weakness? Even though in these days of divided government, it’s the only way to get anything done?
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/343 "2023-10-28T21:43:58Z")
> [@Loach](#):
>
> A serious challenge to Biden means Trump wins. It may happen anyway but I don’t want to ensure it.
This seems based on a tiny sample size of races where there was a strong primary challenge to the incumbent. And if there is a cause and effect, it probably is that weak candidates invite challengers.
Also, for the last year and more, Trump-Biden polls have barely moved. They didn’t move when wars began, or greatly intensified. They didn’t move when a jury essentially said DJT is a rapist. So worries about contested primaries, many months before the general election, hurting Biden (or Trump) are IMHO overblown.
However, just in case I am wrong – Mr. Uygur, please drop out.
P.S. Dean Phillips has pledged to drop out after March 5 (Super Tuesday) if he is behind Biden, and then enthusiastically endorse him. This should be acceptable to those who think voters don’t make up their minds until they see the general election TV ads.
---
### Author:  [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/344 "2023-10-28T21:53:14Z")
> [@Mijin](#):
>
> Well it’s to persuade people that you’re the best candidate. Just as with a job interview, it’s not about trying to claim that others would be incapable of doing the job. And underdogs have won the nomination, and the presidency.
Except in this case, somebody else already has that job. So when you’re arguing you should have that job, you’re also arguing that other guy shouldn’t have it.
> [@Mijin](#):
>
> Cenk has made it clear that his motivation is to provoke a genuine primary, not to have any illusions of winning the presidency.
Uh huh. And how does Uygur see this playing out. What exactly is supposed to happen in this “genuine” primary?
Is Biden going to get re-nominated? That’s what’s already going to happen. Except that having to fight off the Uygur/Phillips/Williamson/Kennedy challenges will make him a weaker candidate for the general election campaign. Which helps Trump (or whoever the Republican candidate is).
Is Uygur going to get nominated? Realistically that’s not going to happen. If nothing else, he’s ineligible (pretending the Constitution doesn’t bar him from the Presidency doesn’t make it true). The “best” Uygur can do in political terms is gain enough attention to weaken Biden. The best Uygur can do in non-political terms is gain enough attention to make himself a celebrity and collect a good amount of campaign donations (especially with Republicans seeking to fund his campaign).
Is some other candidate going to emerge? Some golden figure who will destroy the Republicans with his magnificent visage, lead the Democrats to a majority in the House and Senate and the Supreme Court, enact a full progressive platform with a wave of his magic scepter, and slay all the dragons that have besieged the kingdom? I hate to say this but this person doesn’t exist (if he does exist, where was he in 2016 and 2020?). Whoever wins in 2024 is going to be an ordinary human being. He won’t be able to perform miracles. He will be opposed by the Republicans (assuming he’s not one of them). The best we can hope for is somebody with political experience who understands how to get as much done as possible in the circumstances he will be facing.
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### Author:  [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/345 "2023-10-28T21:54:26Z")
> [@Chronos](#):
>
> But if Biden gets 70, 80 percent, it’s not a signal to the challenger to drop out?
Yep.
Biden has the considerable advantage in a primary of being the incumbent. A challenger would likely have started close to zero and had to see a big swing of votes coming their way as polls continued. It would indeed be a strong sign of a desire to move on from Biden.
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### Author:  [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/346 "2023-10-28T21:57:31Z")
> [@Hatchie](#):
>
> He has got to attack the Republicans on their lack of ideas, and do it way more forcefully. No more “I know Republicans and I can work with them”. I mean, as a matter of rhetoric, then out of the spotlight you make your deals, such as can be made.
This.
e.g. The majority of Americans seem to believe the American economy is doing poorly right now. The messages just aren’t getting through.
Like I say, that’s not Biden’s fault, but it would sure help if we had someone with the energy and charisma to push through the propaganda of the right-wing media and the passivity of the left-wing media.
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### Author:  [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/347 "2023-10-28T21:57:40Z")
> [@Hatchie](#):
>
> He has got to attack the Republicans on their lack of ideas, and do it way more forcefully.
They don’t give a flying fuck about ideas-their plan is to burn it down and own the ashes.
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/348 "2023-10-28T22:14:50Z")
> [@Hatchie](#):
>
> How would Joe answer that question, in a way that could push the needle?
Unless the Biden campaign leadership is totally incompetent — highly unlikely — they have swing voter focus groups which consider different proposed messaging and report back what has the most appeal.
I believe Biden is a good president. As such, he is too busy governing, as he thinks he should, to say stuff just to “push the needle.” But Joe and Kamala and Karine must incorporate, in their rhetoric, focus-group-generated ideas consistent with Biden’s personal political convictions. And those messages just don’t push that needle measurably.
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### Author:  [@Hatchie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hatchie)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/349 "2023-10-28T22:22:10Z")
I would love to hear “flying fuck” pass Joe’s lips.
(But not on national TV.)
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### Author:  [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/350 "2023-10-28T22:22:39Z")
Americus Liberator man here.
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### Author:  [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/351 "2023-10-28T22:24:33Z")
Moreover, attacking Biden because he’s a walking corpse that’s also senile and saying that you’ll support him if he’s the nominee ain’t exactly the best way to change Biden’s policy positions or, more importantly, convince anyone that Biden is the best choice for the job.
‘Biden’s not capable of being President but if he’s the nominee I’ll vote for him!’ ain’t helping anyone but Trump.
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### Author:  [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/352 "2023-10-28T22:27:21Z")
Polling on the general election this early means literally nothing. I don’t know why anyone thinks it matters. Obama was losing at this point in the 2012 cycle.
Just ignore the polling until the actual general election campaign. All it can do is introduce baseless doubt that can lead to really stupid decisions like no-name egotists deciding to run nonsense challenge campaigns.
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/353 "2023-10-28T23:33:07Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> Obama was losing at this point in the 2012 cycle.
True but leaves out crucial context.
[Here’s the data for Obama-Romney polling.](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html)
Obama was almost always ahead of Romney in 2011 running polling averages. October was the one exception, with Romney pulling slightly ahead, after Obama had been 7 percent ahead in June.
The same was true in 2012, except, again in October, when Democrats got a last minute scare.
Here are the 2022-2023 Biden-Trump polling averages:
[Biden - Trump](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html)
In this race, there is much less variation over time, and Biden is never far enough ahead to overcome the likely GOP 3 percent electoral college advantage. The lack of movement is why I take the 2023 polling seriously.
Then there is the shy Trumper effect, where Donald beat his final polling averages in both 2016 and 2020. Given his legal troubles, and the insurrection, and the rape, voters are more likely than ever to decline to tell pollsters they plan to vote for Trump.
Some may wonder if twice-burned pollsters are putting in a fudge factor to account for shy Trumpers. Answer is: No. The great majority of pollsters have too much integrity for that.
Does Cenk Uygur help with this? Of course not.
Is there science to Uygur’s claim that Biden has a ten percent victory chance? No. If 538 was running their model this early, Biden would have a greater chance than that. But consistent early polls tell us the state of the race, and Biden is consistently behind.
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### Author:  [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2023, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/354 "2023-10-28T23:42:24Z")
They don’t tell us the state of the race this early, and never have. Nate Silver has said it repeatedly - for general election polls, numbers this early have no correlation with the eventual result.
We shouldn’t pay these polls any attention at this point.
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### Author:  [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2023, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/355 "2023-10-29T00:29:37Z")
> [@Hatchie](#):
>
> How is it that the President whose policies created a record number of jobs polls worse today than the one who created far fewer?
Because he’s the President. The one thing all Republicans can agree on right now is they want to beat Joe Biden.
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### Author:  [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2023, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/356 "2023-10-29T00:35:47Z")
> [@Mijin](#):
>
> That isn’t the interpretation I’d go with.
> I’d say it is more like the Democrats tried to play it safe; to go with the person who’d “earned” the nomination the most, the person that the donors liked more, and not who seemed to be garnering the most popular support.
> Just waving Biden through with no actual competition is repeating the error.
Biden did earn it. He’s the President. This is a completely different situation than a primary without an incumbent.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2023, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/357 "2023-10-29T00:37:48Z")
> [@Mijin](#):
>
> I’d say it is more like the Democrats tried to play it safe; to go with the person who’d “earned” the nomination the most, the person that the donors liked more, and not who seemed to be garnering the most popular support.
You must not have lived through the same 2020 I did. Biden was consistently in the lead from the beginning.
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### Author:  [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2023, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/358 "2023-10-29T00:42:53Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> You must not have lived through the same 2020 I did. Biden was consistently in the lead from the beginning
Sanders actually had a 10-ish point lead in February, though Biden eventually surged past him.
> **[2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/democratic-primary/2020/national)**
>
> Explore poll data on the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Gain insights into key trends and electoral dynamics.
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### Author:  [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2023, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/359 "2023-10-29T00:43:19Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> You must not have lived through the same 2020 I did. Biden was consistently in the lead from the beginning.
Not entirely true; though he had high name recognition, was an early frontrunner, and led opinion polls in 2019, he underperformed in the first few primaries/caucuses.
My recollection is that, leading up to the South Carolina primary, pundits were saying that, if Biden didn’t win that state, his campaign would likely be over. But, he got Rep. Jim Clyburn’s endorsement, won big in SC, and the rest was history.
From Wikipedia:
> [@](#):
>
> As a former vice president and longtime United States senator, Biden entered the race with very high name recognition. From his campaign announcement up to the start of the elections, he was generally regarded as the Democratic front-runner. He led most national polls through 2019, but did not rank as one of the top three candidates in either the [Iowa caucuses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses) or the [New Hampshire primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary). After underperforming expectations in those contests, he suffered a decline in his polling and lost his frontrunner status to [Bernie Sanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders). Biden started regaining ground after winning second place in the Nevada caucuses and, on February 29, 2020, he won a landslide victory in the [2020 South Carolina Democratic primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_South_Carolina_Democratic_primary) which reinvigorated his campaign. In March 2020, ten of Biden’s former competitors endorsed him, bringing the total number of such endorsements to 12. Biden earned enough delegates on [Super Tuesday 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday_2020) to pull ahead of Sanders. On April 8, after Sanders suspended his campaign, Biden became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
> **[Joe Biden 2020 presidential campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_2020_presidential_campaign)**
>
> On April 25, 2019, former vice president Joe Biden released a video announcing his candidacy in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries. On November 3, 2020, Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, defeated incumbent Republican president Donald Trump and vice president Mike Pence in the general election.
> Biden, the vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017 and previously a U.S. Senator from Delaware from 1973 to 2009, had been the subject of widespread speculation as a...
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### Author:  [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2023, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cenk-uygur-running-for-pres/991927/360 "2023-10-29T00:47:13Z")
> [@Loach](#):
>
> Biden did earn it. He’s the President. This is a completely different situation than a primary without an incumbent.
Firstly, I was replying to the point about Sanders supposedly being responsible for Clinton’s defeat.
But secondly, no, he hasn’t earned it. What the hell? This is not an autocracy, nobody is owed a second term.
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