OK, so do you agree that a horrible, no good, very bad CEO could completely ruin a company and potentially destroy billions of dollars of value? We all seem to be in agreement that there are plenty of absolutely horrible CEOs who have caused a lot of harm for everyone, right?
Now, if someone came to you and said they were able to 100% absolutely guarantee that they were not a horrible, no good, very bad CEO, how much would you pay them to run your company? It would be a lot, right? Because you could be avoiding Billions of dollars in losses with a guarantee like that, we all agree that person should be hired, instead of the awful CEO, even if they cost a lot, right? Like, hundreds of millions of dollars a lot, right? That’s an absolute bargain even at $100M!
Now, of course, nobody can make that guarantee or the world would be a lot simpler and we wouldn’t have any horrible CEOs but what if a person came to you and said he had even 10% less of a chance of not being a horrible CEO and you believed her? Even if she’s only 10% less likely to be a horrible CEO than the next guy, that’s still worth, potentially, $10M and still be a bargain.
That’s the reality of the situation, the job is hard enough and luck plays a big enough part that all the best CEO can promise you is they might be 10% better than the next guy at not fucking up. They’re still going to screw up and, in the benefit of hindsight, you’ll still be able to pin the blame on them for not making the right moves but they’re marginally better than the last guy at not fucking up.
But it’s because the stakes are so high that the pay is so high. A janitor, no matter how bad they are at their job, can’t cause more than a few thousand dollars of damage before they get fired. A bad CEO could potentially cause billions of dollars in damage and so you’re willing to pay millions for the guy who’s just a hair better than the other guy.