# Chance China invades Taiwan **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [November 9, 2024, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959 "2024-11-09T00:38:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/45 "2024-11-16T14:02:41Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > IMHO, America would be well-suited to employ only stealth bombers and submarines against China in a Taiwan scenario. Those two things have the advantage of being 1) hard to detect and also 2) putting relatively few American lives at risk, while still packing firepower. Aircraft carrier battle groups, while bringing additional firepower and air cover, would not be worth the potential loss of many thousands of lives. No; at last count we have only 19 or 20 operational B-2 ‘Spirit’ stealth bombers, and only probably 70% of those ready to fly at any given time. They are not well suited for tactical use, nor does it make sense to fly missions of thousands of miles from Anderson (Guam, the nearest base that could conceivably support the B-2) to attempt to strike mobile assets. The F-22, while technically ‘stealth’ is still potentially observable from Chinese ground-based long wave radar (as is the F-117) and lacks the payload capacity in internal stores to take out multiple vessels, and the US Air Force has so few of the extremely expensive F-22 in operation it is unlikely that they would risk such a sortie for the purpose of knocking down a few gunboats or missile ‘frigates’ when China as so many more watercraft to replace them. US Navy submarines operating in the Taiwan Strait is untenable for reasons discussed in this thread: > [@Why all the push for Jobs Building Submarines?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-all-the-push-for-jobs-building-submarines/1000964/22): > > China has a large navy in quantity but it is not a ‘blue water’ navy that could operate either in the open Pacific or even sustain itself in the Indian Ocean. However, it isn’t intended to operate that far; it has enough reach and firepower to cover the East and South China Sea and provide enough targets to dilute a technically more capable naval force while throwing mass quantities of missiles and drones at opponents. Whether that strategy would ultimately be successful or not (I have my doubts) they could likely make it costly enough for the US to not want to enter into direct conflict, and the loss of an aircraft carrier or even one or two _Virginia_ or even older _Los Angeles_ or _Seawolf_ attack submarines would be a substantial blow to prestige and billions of dollars of lost investment. > > Agreed that it is difficult to detect a submarine out in broad ocean area; however, within the shallower depth of the East China Sea and confined space in the Taiwan Strait, US submarines may find much of the advantage from features designed for North Atlantic and Pacific blue water operations somewhat blunted, and even operations in the deeper South China sea may be more difficult as China deploys their surveillance network. With the home court advantage of having land based air cover and missile basing they can keep surface ships at bay, forcing the submarine fleet into what is essentially guided missile frigate duty with fraction of the VLS capacity at two or three times the cost of an _Arleigh Burke_ destroyer. Putting US naval assets in shooting range of the Chinese mainland would be a disaster in the making for an already strained United States Pacific Fleet. > [@Velocity](#): > > But in response to the talk about amphibious invasion, there is also the alternate method China might use, of air assault. With Taiwan being only 90 miles away, it is well within range of helicopters. If China used its 1,500 or so helicopters, it could conceivably put, say, a hundred thousand invasion troops on Taiwan in 24 hours’ time, with the choppers flying back and forth on repeated ferry trips. But those helos would be vulnerable to Stingers and other SAMs, and those infantry would likely have no heavy weapons they could bring for firepower. I don’t know where you are getting this absurd notion but the Peoples Liberation Army doesn’t have anything like “1,500 or so helicopters” capable of transporting a significant number of passengers, and even if they did they wouldn’t be able to bring the T/O/E to equip and support them via helicopters. A PRC invasion of Taiwan would almost certain start with naval bombardment of coastal defenses and airdrop of paratroops and equipment followed by amphibious landings at beaches in both the east and west coasts, attempting to seize civil infrastructure and industrial manufacturing before it could be sabotaged by the Taiwanese Army which will burn it to the ground rather than hand anything over to the PRC. An attempted PRC invasion of Taiwan would be a disaster for Xi and the PRC government, and potentially catastrophic for the Republic of China…and there is likely little that the US could or would do to prevent it even before a presidential regime that will almost certainly ignore it (as Trump assuredly will because it will not impact him personally). So, logically it should not happen. However, since at least February 2022, Logic and RatIonality have taken an extended holiday together at an unspecified resort reportedly somewhere in the vicinity of Betelgeuse, and I am no longer prognosticating over what Xi will or will not do with regard to his persistent threats to invade Taiwan in the attempt to bring it back into the fold of the Chinese mainland sphere of influence. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/46 "2024-11-16T15:39:16Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > I don’t know where you are getting this absurd notion but the Peoples Liberation Army doesn’t have anything like “1,500 or so helicopters” capable of transporting a significant number of passengers, and even if they did they wouldn’t be able to bring the T/O/E to equip and support them via helicopters. You beat me too it. Plus helicopters are maintenance hogs and having 100% availability is highly unlikely and will decrease quickly once combat operations begin. As for your invasion scenario, it makes more sense, but I have searched this thread and one word is not found: Logistics. Once you get troops on the beaches (a not inconsiderable job but probably attainable by the PRC), you have to supply and build up equipment and reserves to replace casualties and provide enough forces to breakout of the beachheads. This includes heavy equipment including tanks, artillery, missile batteries (and defensive weapons), fuel, food…and if you cannot keep that up, your invasion is going to fail. There is a reason it took years to organize D-Day in June 1944 and months for the invading forces to break out, and there is no reason to believe that the PRC can support a large invasion force and then support and reinforce it while under attack. As one of my favorite quotes goes: “Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logsitics.” IMHO as always. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/47 "2024-11-16T15:57:12Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > As for your invasion scenario, it makes more sense, but I have searched this thread and one word is not found: Logistics. Once you get troops on the beaches (a not inconsiderable job but probably attainable by the PRC), you have to supply and build up equipment and reserves to replace casualties and provide enough forces to breakout of the beachheads. This includes heavy equipment including tanks, artillery, missile batteries (and defensive weapons), fuel, food…and if you cannot keep that up, your invasion is going to fail. Oh, I completely agree with this; the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (what an awkward and confusing name) doesn’t have anything like the logistical capability to sustain an invasion under even nominal opposition, much less the shitstorm of Taiwanian resistance, which doesn’t need to prevent the beachhead landings, just blunt advances until they reduce everything of any value to rubble and ash. Which is why this would be an incredibly stupid and totally counterproductive move by the PRC. And I’m sure someone will inform President Xi of this as soon as they claw their way out of whatever dungeon they’ve been imprisoned in for daring to contract the Glorious Leader. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/48 "2024-11-16T15:58:16Z")
In theory, the US and allies to Taiwan have an unsinkable carrier close enough to Taiwan. It is called the Philippines. Japan is also in range, though further. I know I mentioned this in a prior thread and included ranges of the Air Force Jets available. **Basa Air Base** in the Philippines to the center of Taiwan is under 600 miles. **Okinawa** is under 400 miles to Taipei. The actually carriers can operate to the East of Taiwan adding a lot of safety to them, operating to the west would be a poor decision. Keep in mind, the B-52 have a crazy range of over 8000 miles. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/49 "2024-11-16T16:04:32Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > There is a reason it took years to organize D-Day in June 1944 and months for the invading forces to break out, and there is no reason to believe that the PRC can support a large invasion force and then support and reinforce it while under attack. That’s the questionable reasoning I mentioned in my previous post. American military planners tend to hold the Overlord yardstick up to any potential amphibious operation and decide that if the situation doesn’t measure up then it’s not possible. The Germans wouldn’t have been able to conduct an Overlord level operation in WWII. But they were able to successfully conduct an amphibious invasion of Norway, across a much longer stretch of water than the English Channel. I’ll also point out that Overlord was an invasion of a continent. The planners knew they were going to be fighting a large scale war after the landing. Taiwan is an island. If the landing is successful, the war will practically be over. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/50 "2024-11-16T16:36:09Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > In theory, the US and allies to Taiwan have an unsinkable carrier close enough to Taiwan. It is called the Philippines. Japan is also in range, though further. I know I mentioned this in a prior thread and included ranges of the Air Force Jets available. Again, I’ll repeat: Anderson AFB on Guam is the nearest base that could conceivably support the B-2 ‘Spirit’ bomber. I have never been to Clark or Cesar Basa AFB on the Philippines so I can only infer from the fact that they have never been used for B-2 operations but I can attest to the reality that Kadena AFB on Okinawa does not have support facilities for the B-2 (which are extensive, expensive, and require a vast ground support continent), nor are Misawa or Yokota even capable of being constituted to support operations for an aircraft with such classified requirements. All of this notwithstanding that the B-2 is not a tactical bomber and would perform poorly in a role requiring strikes on the large fleets of relatively small boats that comprise the bulk of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy combat fleet. The B-52 is the opposite of ‘stealth’ and would literally be a sitting duck in direct strike operations against a near peer adversary with extensive air defense capability and in a theater in which China would almost undoubtedly have the air superiority advantage. That you would even suggest using for that application indicates that you don’t really understand what you are talking about. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Taiwan is an island. If the landing is successful, the war will practically be over. You are correct that it will be, although perhaps not in the way that you envision. Whether the Taiwanese are able to directly repel a Chinese invasion or not, the PRC will walk away with nothing of value and having lost many tens of thousands of troops (about whom the leadership does not care) and their capacity for further incursions, plus an ugly blot on their reputation for competent military adventurism. Like Russian’s invasion of Ukraine, this is at best a Pyrrhic victory that will cost more than it offers and will make the political leadership look foolish for not considering the practical considerations (e.g. the logistical challenges that @The_Stainless_Steel_Rat mentioned, as well as the complete resistance of the Taiwanese people who understand that a PRC victory is an existential threat to them). Which still may not be enough to convince President Xi, who has diligently removed from public view anyone, even former political allies, who might question his desires. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/51 "2024-11-16T16:38:24Z")
@Little Nemo, You make some congent points, but the invasions would be somewhat different; the initial Norwegian invasion was about 9,000 men transported by warships to a country of less than 3 million population, the vast majority in major cities and with a relatively small army (source: Wikipedia). It should also be noted that the British and Norwegian forces, while ultimately unsuccessful, did do serious enough damage to the German forces (especially their navy) to make Hitler wary of future over-water invasions (Crete and the decimation of his paratroops reinforced this). Taiwan is much more compact (about the area of the State of Maryland), but has 23 million people, a robust military and has been planning for such an event for many years, so I suspect resistance will be a lot tougher than you might calculate. Press on. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/52 "2024-11-16T18:02:20Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Keep in mind, the B-52 have a crazy range of over 8000 miles. With aerial refueling the range of any USAF airplane is essentially indefinite. The limiting factor becomes crew endurance. A problem with real long range is that makes each sortie take a lot of hours. When the US used some B-2s from Missouri to hit the Mideast that was a nice demo. But at nearly 24 hours per sortie that pretty well guaranteed any given airplane could only fly one every other day. Or 15 sorties per month. And the crews could probably fly one every 3rd day, or 10 per month. There are only ~20 jets and some are broken on any given day. The punchline being the entire B-2 fleet, if operating from Missouri, could deliver only a tiny trickle of ordnance over the course of a month. There are more B-52s (~70), and each can carry more weight than a B-2 can. So the trickle gets maybe 8x bigger. But they probably won’t return from their first mission against modern air defenses. Basing closer on e.g. Guam helps a LOT. That’s only ~1500nm from Taiwan, so 3-4 hours each way, not 12. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/53 "2024-11-16T18:44:54Z")
Is there any reason that US planes couldn’t base on Taiwan itself? ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/54 "2024-11-16T18:49:04Z")
I think an initial massive missile drone attack would be done on military and a lot of civilian communication and power points. Many directed at air defence installations. Many waves of missiles can be devoted to each target. Defences may be very good. But the quantity of attack will overwhelm them. In the old days you softened up the landing areas with long range ship based artillery barrage and piloted air attack. This is no longer needed for the initial attack. When the time comes for personnel deployment China will commandeer civilian transport as well as its military transport. If the initial attack leaves a deep port available and intact. Huge civilian transport will arrive loaded with materiel and personnel. Continued missile drone attack will provide cover. Pinning forces down. If air defence is sufficiently suppressed/destroyed piloted air support will be employed. Navy will be devoted to interdict supply and support by sea and air. That will be very difficult and costly for both sides. I think China is very capable of conducting a quantity based war at a target that is so close. They likely have a large stockpile of the required items. I have no good idea of what quantity is available in such a situation to attack bases on the China mainland. And to attack the forces that may successfully land on Taiwan. A lot of missiles are in short supply. Piloted attack may be costly. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/55 "2024-11-16T18:51:15Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Is there any reason that US planes couldn’t base on Taiwan itself? Logistically, no. Indeed, many U.S. forces and planes were based on Taiwan up to the end of the Vietnam War, IIRC. Right now, it’s a political nonstarter, but it’s possible that if an invasion appears imminent, the U.S. might start basing planes/forces on Taiwan as a deterrence gesture, since in that situation the political atmosphere would have changed a lot and the diplomatic worries probably don’t exist anymore. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/56 "2024-11-16T19:00:28Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#): > > Just read up on Project 2025, it lays out the plan of prioritizing China as the enemy of the United States and the defense of Taiwan as key to establishing and maintaining American domance in the region militarily. They see control of the China Sea as one of the biggest threats to our economy. I expect to see our bases to return to the Philippines under Trump. Project 2025 isn’t a binding contract, it’s a wish list for a bunch of psychos. Trump has no appetite for war or understanding of it. He will not pursue a muscular military policy, he’s always been an isolationist. He will bluster and bluff and possibly _accidentally_ miscalculate himself into a war. But when push comes to shove, if China moves on Taiwan, he will 100% capitulate. Without US support, Taiwan will have no choice but to surrender without firing a shot. Trump will proclaim that he made the best peace deal every by solving the Taiwan problem without putting any Americans at risk. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/57 "2024-11-16T19:16:43Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Without US support, Taiwan will have no choice but to surrender without firing a shot. I would not assume the Taiwanese would go along with this. This isn’t the Sudetenland in WW II. Or even Ukraine today. I’d expect Taiwan to go it alone and see if they can inflict enough of a bloody nose to deter outright conquest. The pathways to invade Taiwan are not easy - most of the west coast is treacherous water due to very extensive shallows, most of the east due to high cliffs. Remove the few ports from the equation (mines, deliberate destruction) and China’s mass landing options become greatly narrowed, making it much easier for Taiwan to channel defenses. Then we have the fact that interior Taiwan is pretty mountainous. Taiwan might roll after a very long successful blockade (with plenty of shooting). They also might get steamrolled in an actual invasion. But I wouldn’t expect a quick capitulation under any circumstances less than a nuclear attack (obviously not in China’s interest). ---
**Author:** ![Kedikat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kedikat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kedikat)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/58 "2024-11-16T19:35:10Z")
If it comes to a war with blockade. Food is an issue. Taiwan imports about two thirds of calories. Of course that kind of tactic will harden the Taiwan population against China. There is some support in country to reunite. If a war breaks out the number and positions of people with such sympathies can be crucial. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/59 "2024-11-16T21:32:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > > [@Chronos](#): > > > > Is there any reason that US planes couldn’t base on Taiwan itself? > > Logistically, no. Indeed, many U.S. forces and planes were based on Taiwan up to the end of the Vietnam War, IIRC. You guys want to put an airbase _on the island under threat of invasion?_ > [@Tamerlane](#): > > > [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > > > Without US support, Taiwan will have no choice but to surrender without firing a shot. > > I would not assume the Taiwanese would go along with this. Since the ‘Nineties, the Taiwanese people have been getting propaganda from the government about what terrible things the PRC will do to them if they were successful in taking the main island, and frankly, as we’ve seen with Hong Kong, they’re not materially exaggerating. The Republic of China Armed Forces (ROCAF) has an active duty strength of 180k with another 1.6M in reserves (which have been actively drilling for the last several years). They do not have the most modern equipment but they are quite capable with what they have; perhaps not be enough to defeat the PLA in a straight-up fight but when it comes to an amphibious invasion the attacker is at severe disadvantage, especially when the defender has nothing to lose and will literally leave the critical facilities of the island as scorched earth rather that turn anything over to the PLA. Ukraine should be an object lesson (one of so many in 20th and 21st century history) for anyone who thinks a defender that is at the weak side of a power differential doesn’t have any viable options if they are dedicated to their cause, and unlike Ukrainians who could flee westward, the Taiwanese literally have nowhere to go, and thus, nothing to lose by fighting down to the last tooth and nail. Which would be an enormous tragedy, and one that should be avoided by all diplomatic means available short of giving into the PRC. Unfortunately, for all of the ‘tough talk’ Trump makes about ‘Gina’, he’s a pussy that they can grab at will, and Taiwan indeed will likely have to go it on their own if President Xi actually gives the order for invasion _as he has been pledging to do in 2027_ for the last several years. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/60 "2024-11-16T22:11:56Z")
> [@Kedikat](#): > > When the time comes for personnel deployment China will commandeer civilian transport as well as its military transport. Exactly when will they commandeer this transport? If they do it before they launch their attack, it will be a huge red flag for every intelligence agency that is watching, giving Taiwan a huge early warning to prepare for the attack. If they do it after they launch their attack, the vast majority of civilian shipping will be sailing away from the conflict zone as fast as they possibly can. So they’ll only be able to commandeer as much shipping as is sitting in their harbors at that moment, or that they can intimidate into returning to harbor (all the while still trying to run an invasion). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/61 "2024-11-16T22:13:55Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Exactly when will they commandeer this transport? All civilian vessels in China that are 50 tons or heavier are required to register with authorities for potential usage by the Chinese military in wartime. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/62 "2024-11-16T22:18:47Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > are required to register with authorities for potential usage by the Chinese military in wartime. Registering is just paperwork. I’m talking about, where are they, _physically?_ For an invasion like this, you need them in particular places, at particular times, to take on cargoes and personnel, to deliver them on time to the beach heads. Planning that in advance gives away the game. Doing it after the fight starts adds complexity and delays that may doom the invasion. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/63 "2024-11-16T22:23:23Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > You guys want to put an airbase _on the island under threat of invasion?_ From what location could you possibly be better positioned to prevent the invasion? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2024, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959/64 "2024-11-16T22:26:34Z")
PLARF? Hell, US bases a lot farther than that would be at risk. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-china-invades-taiwan/1009959.md?page=4)