# Chance Obama will be Assassinated? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 22, 2008, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758 "2008-02-22T19:13:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Poor\_College\_Student](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Poor\_College\_Student](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Poor_College_Student)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/1 "2008-02-22T19:13:25Z")
What percentage chance do you think Obama has of being assassinated: 1. during the election? 2. assuming he wins, as president? I bring this up after reading [this.](http://www.star-telegram.com/251/story/486413.html) (Sorry if this has already been a topic, I looked around and didn’t see it!) ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/2 "2008-02-22T19:24:08Z")
Earlier thread…[Assassination attempt probability on Obama vs. Clinton](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=451413&highlight=obama+shot) ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/3 "2008-02-22T19:27:09Z")
No one has ever been assassinated while running for President, so let’s guess less than 1% for that. If elected, about 9%. Whoever is elected will be the 44th POTUS. Four Presidents have been assassinated. Do the math. Probably as close as you are going to get for a factual answer. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/4 "2008-02-22T19:28:18Z")
[QUOTE=Shodan] No one has ever been assassinated while running for President, so let’s guess less than 1% for that. [/QUOTE] Ever hear of a guy named Robert Kennedy? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/5 "2008-02-22T19:30:02Z")
Not recently. My bad. I only thought of Wallace, and he didn’t die until much later. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/6 "2008-02-22T19:31:00Z")
I know people that get that vibe about him. It’s the downside of being Kennedyesque; we will forever associate a handsome young president (or an inspirational black man) with assassination. ---
**Author:** ![UncleRojelio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unclerojelio/32/3160_2.png) [@UncleRojelio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleRojelio)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/7 "2008-02-22T19:40:37Z")
[QUOTE=Poor College Student] I bring this up after reading [this.](http://www.star-telegram.com/251/story/486413.html) [/QUOTE] The terrorists have won. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/8 "2008-02-22T21:24:42Z")
The chance will increase or decrease depending on who’s chosen as VP. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/9 "2008-02-22T22:11:51Z")
I’m thinking he should pick Al Sharpton for VP. ---
**Author:** ![Crafter\_Man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crafter_man/32/458_2.png) [@Crafter\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crafter_Man)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/10 "2008-02-22T22:17:29Z")
[QUOTE=Shodan] If elected, about 9%. Whoever is elected will be the 44th POTUS. Four Presidents have been assassinated. Do the math. [/QUOTE] You can’t calculate a simple probability percentage based on past assassinations. Security for the POTUS is many orders of magnitude better now than it was in the 19th Century, and many times better than during the 1960s. So I would guess the probably is a lot less than 9%. ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/11 "2008-02-22T22:48:35Z")
[QUOTE=Crafter\_Man] You can’t calculate a simple probability percentage based on past assassinations. Security for the POTUS is many orders of magnitude better now than it was in the 19th Century, and many times better than during the 1960s. So I would guess the probably is a lot less than 9%. [/QUOTE] For instance, what’s the likelihood that Obama will be riding a train anytime soon? ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2008, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/12 "2008-02-22T22:54:00Z")
Well right off the bat there are at least a billion fewer people that hate him than hate Dubya, and he’s managed to avoid any trouble. Sure it only takes one nutjob, but still. ---
**Author:** ![PharmBoy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/74df32/32.png) [@PharmBoy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PharmBoy)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/13 "2008-02-23T02:37:43Z")
You know, no one will ever mistake me for an Obama fan, but when you first had the idea for this post, did it ever occur to you at all that it is inappropriate? ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/14 "2008-02-23T02:56:41Z")
I posted what I think is quality material in the link given in Post#2. All modern presidents have had genuine assassination attempts against them and the number of half-assed ones in greater by many order of magnitude. In short, many people will try to assassinate whoever becomes the next president. Some will be delusional quacks that can barely get dressed in the morning. Some will have workable plans but they are a long-shot. John Hinkley shot Ronald Reagan with a pitiful .22 caliber handgun yet he managed to debilatiate a SS agent for life and seriously hurt Reagan all for the attention of the love of Jody Foster who, unfortunately, appears to be a lesbian. What a waste. Hinckley got really lucky for a sick person. That isn’t a powerful gun. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/15 "2008-02-23T08:55:02Z")
My guess is that the Secret Service has given some thought to this concept. When I was a kid, Martin Luther King Jr. came to our small hometown for a sort of private meeting with some of his staff. I actually met him for a few minutes while I was fishing with a friend on the nearby river, but that is another story. One thing I remember, as nosy kids we were hanging around the parking lot and looked in the window of a station wagon owned by one of his staff members (a very nice women we had also met). Inside the station wagon was a box of letters that was spilling out and we could read bits and pieces - it was chock full of vile hate mail addressed to MLK with unbelievable comments. Even as kids, we were shocked by how many, and how scary those letters were. I can only imagine what shows up in Obama’s mail everyday and glad that the US Government now assigns Secret Service details to all major candidates and their families. I would like to think that chances of something horrible happening are slight, but as others have mentioned - it only takes one nutcase to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. My guess is that Hillary and even McCain get their fair share of wackos as well. Wasn’t there also a recent report that even Jay Leno’s wife was put on some kind of a hit list as well? ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 9:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/16 "2008-02-23T09:02:51Z")
[QUOTE=Kozmik] The chance will increase or decrease depending on who’s chosen as VP. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Argent Towers] I’m thinking he should pick Al Sharpton for VP.. [/QUOTE] Or Charlie Manson ---
**Author:** ![Jinx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Jinx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jinx)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/17 "2008-02-23T11:38:27Z")
[QUOTE=Shodan] No one has ever been assassinated while running for President, so let’s guess less than 1% for that. [/QUOTE] Oh no? Wasn’t Bobby Kennedy? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/18 "2008-02-23T14:01:06Z")
There are some bigots furious at the thought of Obama running for president. It just takes one. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/19 "2008-02-23T14:08:39Z")
[QUOTE=Jinx] Oh no? Wasn’t Bobby Kennedy? 😕 [/QUOTE] I understand not reading a thread if it’s eight pages long, but four posts? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2008, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758/20 "2008-02-23T14:21:09Z")
OK then what is the line? I’m hot at the moment so offer some odds. Excuse the preceding, apparently I have far poorer taste than I thought. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chance-obama-will-be-assassinated/438758.md?page=2)