# Chances of dying **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 8, 2007, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186 "2007-05-08T01:39:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![groman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/73ab20/32.png) [@groman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/groman)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/1 "2007-05-08T01:39:35Z")
I am curious as to how would one go at estimating a given person’s chance of dying within a particular time frame. I mean there should be a baseline based on age and sex, and then compounded by things like smoking, driving, dangerous occupations. I’m fairly sure one can find life expectancy for a lot of combinations of the above, but I am not quite sure how to go about estimating chance of death. For example, let’s estimate for me. A white male California resident, 23 years old, non-smoking. One approach would be to see how many 23-year old white males in California die in a given day vs. how many there are total. That shouldn’t give me a figure that is entirely far off. How would I go about finding this info however? Any ideas? ---
**Author:** ![Quiddity\_Glomfuster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/c4cdca/32.png) [@Quiddity\_Glomfuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quiddity_Glomfuster)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/2 "2007-05-08T03:02:13Z")
Well, you could wiffle through this site: [http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm](http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm) ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/3 "2007-05-08T03:33:49Z")
Get a food taster and sell your motorcycle. ---
**Author:** ![groman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/73ab20/32.png) [@groman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/groman)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/4 "2007-05-08T04:01:28Z")
[QUOTE=gonzomax] Get a food taster and sell your motorcycle. [/QUOTE] Well, while my interest is purely academic, I am a little offended you automatically presume I want to make my own chances better rather than someone else’s chances worse. ---
**Author:** ![Darryl\_Lict](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7cd45c/32.png) [@Darryl\_Lict](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darryl_Lict)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/5 "2007-05-08T04:29:48Z")
[Actuarial Science](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science). ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/6 "2007-05-08T14:02:33Z")
[US mortality table](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_table) from Wikipedia along with instructions. ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/7 "2007-05-08T14:20:36Z")
[QUOTE=Darryl Lict] [Actuarial Science](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science). [/QUOTE] Kind of like what Ben Stiller did for a living in “Along Came Polly”. ---
**Author:** ![groman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/73ab20/32.png) [@groman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/groman)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/8 "2007-05-08T17:45:46Z")
[QUOTE=David Simmons] [US mortality table](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_table) from Wikipedia along with instructions. [/QUOTE] Awesome! Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/9 "2007-05-08T17:50:03Z")
Your chances of dying are 100%. It’s just predicting when that might happen which is the hard part. Old joke at the firm I used to work for: _Did you here about the actuary who insisted on being buried in Isreal? Because it has the highest known incidence of resurrection from the dead._ ---
**Author:** ![scotandrsn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a4c791/32.png) [@scotandrsn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scotandrsn)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/10 "2007-05-08T17:56:21Z")
[QUOTE=Darryl Lict] [Actuarial Science](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science). [/QUOTE] I was going to say this. -Scotandrsn, son of an actuary ---
**Author:** ![melangell](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f1d935/32.png) [@melangell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/melangell)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/11 "2007-05-08T19:13:11Z")
I think that this is probably the most fun way to find out: [http://community.sparknotes.com/sparktests/index.epl](http://community.sparknotes.com/sparktests/index.epl)😃 Food for thought: My department emailed us all that we had a bomb threat earlier in the day, but it was not considered serious enough to send us all home. Did they ask me? :dubious: Of course not. I guess I could already be dead, especially considering the fact that most of the decision makers I know couldn’t find their ass with two hands… :eek: ---
**Author:** ![ShiefferSaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@ShiefferSaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShiefferSaw)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2007, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-of-dying/403186/12 "2007-05-08T19:20:39Z")
If you ever figure it out, let us know what your chances of dying are… I’m interested to know because I’m a white male, 23, non-smoker, and live in DC.