# Chances To Win Presidency In Next 20 Years... **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 27, 2013, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542 "2013-01-27T17:50:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/21 "2013-01-28T02:29:23Z")
A woman is probably most likely. I think that’s a pretty surmountable barrier at this point, and there are quite a few female governors and senators. (I also think an appealing Jewish, Hispanic, or Asian candidate would see relatively few issues related to their ethnicity, but there just aren’t as many of them in the upper reaches of politics right now. Hispanic being the most likely of those three IMO.) I also think it’s entirely possible that Barack Obama will be the only black president in any of our lifetimes. It’s still relatively rare for African Americans to win high-profile statewide elections. If there is another black president reasonably soon, I think he or she will more likely be someone like a general or cabinet secretary who rose to that level through appointments rather than elections. (It might not be totally unfeasible for a member of the House to win, but I do think it _would_ be unfeasible for a member of the House from a black-majority district to win, and that’s where most of the black Congresspeople come from right now.) ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/22 "2013-01-28T02:33:51Z")
Some of these are unlikely to be President in any 20 year period even if the public didn’t care about their backgrounds, simply because there aren’t many of them. Gays, for example, are at best only 1/20th of the population, so even an electorate that was completely indifferent to the sexual-orientation of its candidates would only choose a gay President once every 80 years or so. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/23 "2013-01-28T02:52:47Z")
Interesting trivia note: no President has ever been an only child\*. Will we see the first one of those elected in the next twenty years? \*Franklin Roosevelt had an older brother, James. But he was a lot older. James was twenty-eight years older and was already married and had children of his own when Franklin was born. So Franklin Roosevelt effectively grew up as an only child. ---
**Author:** ![thelurkinghorror](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7c8e57/32.png) [@thelurkinghorror](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelurkinghorror)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/24 "2013-01-28T03:02:59Z")
Female or Hispanic most likely. Asian less likely due to demographic size but possible. Unmarried has happened before. Jewish, absolutely. Gay, maybe not. Atheism is normal in many parts of the country, but it’s more likely to negatively affect a national vote. Everywhere I’ve lived it’s not necessarily considered a bad thing. You know, it seems that voting for any of these categories means that we believe a good thing will happen. I would find the election of the married couple option appalling. ---
**Author:** ![antonio107](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/7ea924/32.png) [@antonio107](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/antonio107)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/25 "2013-01-28T03:03:47Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Interesting trivia note: no President has ever been an only child\*. Will we see the first one of those elected in the next twenty years? > > \*Franklin Roosevelt had an older brother, James. But he was a lot older. James was twenty-eight years older and was already married and had children of his own when Franklin was born. So Franklin Roosevelt effectively grew up as an only child. Yeah, but by that caveat, I assume Obama qualifies as de facto only child too, doesn’t he? I thought his siblings all live in Indonesia and Kenya. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/26 "2013-01-28T03:08:46Z")
> [@antonio107](#): > > Yeah, but by that caveat, I assume Obama qualifies as de facto only child too, doesn’t he? I thought his siblings all live in Indonesia and Kenya. IIRC, he has a half-sister that he lived with for at least part of their childhoods, and with whom he’s fairly close. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/27 "2013-01-28T03:23:32Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > The hatred of Obama is due to his politics, not his race for most of his opponents. Please; the Republicans have been positively delusional over him. His opponents typically have no idea what his positions _actually_ are, nor do they care; they oppose a fantasy-Obama, not the actual Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Namkcalb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c89c15/32.png) [@Namkcalb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Namkcalb)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/28 "2013-01-28T03:37:27Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > I think a Mormon could have a shot, so I added an “Other” vote for that. Mormons are probably about as well positioned as anyone from an “odd religion.” (Jews and atheists aren’t really that odd in America.) I think Jews and Mormons are equally “odd”, that is somewhat familiar to the mainstream, sbut have certain points of departure, and do attract some hostility from certain extremist idiots. Buddhism/Hinduism would attract less hostility, but most people would consider those faiths a lot "odd"er It’s totally different from what would happen if an openly-practicing Muslim tried running. In 2000, the Dems won the majority of the vote with a practicing Jewish VP candidate In 2012, the Reps won the majority of the vote with a practicing Mormon candidate. But look how much hostility BHO got just because he was involved with Islam at most for two years when he was 6. Decades of churchgoing didn’t matter, dedicating a book to his pastor didn’t matter, two years decades ago made him a foreign ‘other’ ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/29 "2013-01-28T03:41:05Z")
> [@Namkcalb](#): > > In 2000, the Dems won the majority of the vote with a practicing Jewish VP candidate > In 2012, the Reps won the majority of the vote with a practicing Mormon candidate.’ Romney didn’t win the majority of the vote in 2012. It was four points in Obama’s favour. But in any case, I agree Romney’s candidacy shows pretty clearly a Mormon could win under different conditions, even if Romney himself didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/30 "2013-01-28T05:12:08Z")
There have been some studies where, while the conclusions aren’t 100% cut and dry, it appears Americans trust atheists slightly less than they trust rapists. Let that sink in for just a moment. As an atheist I think there’s a good reason that a good 25% of whatever of the population isn’t church going, are probably not really religious and would probably **be** atheists openly but aren’t, and I think that is because there is a large amount of social pressure to say you’re religious. Not being religious can be a serious barrier to a lot of things if you’re too open about it. I don’t hide my atheism, but I don’t talk about it or bring it up, either. It can be a deal killer in dating, business, it can make you unwanted in groups you’d otherwise be wanted in etc. Now, I think that’s changing, but I think there is a lot of truth to the idea atheism is still widely seen as unacceptable by many. And there is a lot of voting done outside of San Francisco, New York, Chicago etc. I think something like 70% of people have strongly negative opinions of atheists, I don’t see how you win a national election with numbers like that. Plus, an atheist who was serious about politics would just lie and say they’re Christian. If I was, that’s what I’d do, no doubt. Absolutely no reason not to, and it’s easy to lie about being religious. ---
**Author:** ![Rodgers01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@Rodgers01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rodgers01)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/31 "2013-01-28T06:07:18Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > The poll should perhaps have included:[ul][li]_Another_ black president[/ul][/li] > I didn’t feel, in 2008, that this nation was “ready” for a black president. It seemed to me that a significant part of Obama’s appeal at the time was the “anything but another Republican” backlash after 8 years of Bush Jr., in conjunction with the view that McCain was just “Bush III”. > > In other words, I felt that some substantial part of the Obama voters were, really, voting _against_ Bush/McCain/Republicans-in-general. > > Given the national paroxysm of anti-Obama hostility we’ve seen in the last four years, specifically from conservatives, I sadly conclude that I was right about that. I feel this nation _still_ isn’t ready for a black president, even while we now have one, and I don’t know how much longer it will be until we are. > > If anything, the unleashing of the right-wing orgy of hatred, inspired by Obama’s very existence, may have set back the cause. If that were the case then Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or any other candidate would have won the Democratic nomination in 2008. Instead Obama fairly easily won it, and neither of his two elections were really cliffhangers. The reasonable conclusion is that a significantly large portion of the country is indeed ready for a black president. …And for that matter, I think they’ve been ready for a while. When polls showed that Colin Powell could have won if he’d run in 1996 I remember thinking it was kind of neat but nothing shocking, and I don’t remember any frothing at the mouth at the prospect back then, either. For other groups, it all very much depends on the candidate. A great woman, Hispanic, Asian, or Jewish candidate would, I think, have some barriers (same as a black candidate), but nothing insurmountable - any of those are perfectly possible. An atheist? Less likely - candidates are going to need to at least play lip service to religion for a while longer, though I can imagine a nominally religious candidate who is unobservant. Gay? Not likely. Gay rights have only started in earnest in, what, the last 15 or 20 years or so? Opinions are changing quickly, but not fast enough for me to imagine a gay couple in the White House any time soon. An unmarried candidate might conceivably have an advantage, _if_ he or she was young and reasonably good looking. The tabloids would have a field day with each date! Muslim? Extremely unlikely. Mormon? Very possible. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/32 "2013-01-28T06:23:57Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Interesting trivia note: no President has ever been an only child\*. Will we see the first one of those elected in the next twenty years? > > \*Franklin Roosevelt had an older brother, James. But he was a lot older. James was twenty-eight years older and was already married and had children of his own when Franklin was born. So Franklin Roosevelt effectively grew up as an only child. I think its likely. Most of our past Presidents were born in a time when large families were the norm. > [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Please; the Republicans have been positively delusional over him. His opponents typically have no idea what his positions _actually_ are, nor do they care; they oppose a fantasy-Obama, not the actual Obama. And his fantasy **positions**. If Hillary Clinton, I doubt the rhetoric or opposition would be any less weaker. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/33 "2013-01-28T06:36:02Z")
> [@bouv](#): > > It’s my understanding that they don’t like it when the Pres. and VP are in the same place for an extended period of time, for nation security reasons. [I can understand why.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2013, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542/34 "2013-01-28T12:55:53Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > IIRC, he has a half-sister that he lived with for at least part of their childhoods, and with whom he’s fairly close. Yes, his half-sister Maya. She’s nine years younger than him and they both lived in their mother’s household so I’d say they were children together. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chances-to-win-presidency-in-next-20-years/648542.md?page=1)