# Charlie Cook is touting the latest FOX News poll. It's a barnburner! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 14, 2016, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514 "2016-10-14T15:13:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/21 "2016-10-14T17:58:22Z")
OTOH: [Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-clinton-is-surging-but-down-ballot-democrats-are-losing-ground/?utm_content=buffer1aa62&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/22 "2016-10-14T19:04:01Z")
Maybe\* that\* belongs more in the 538 Senate thread? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/23 "2016-10-14T20:26:29Z")
It’s probably easier to discuss the trend line of the generic congress ballot if you look in places where they go to the trouble of drawing the trend line. [RCP](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html) D +6.2 [Huffpost Pollster](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-house-race) D +5.6 All of this belongs in the house flipping thread. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/24 "2016-10-14T20:31:27Z")
Also… [538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/generic-ballot/) D +3.7 ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/25 "2016-10-15T03:46:54Z")
Damn, I just waded through that whole document, and I’m still not sure what **SlackerInc** wanted me to be amazed by. Would it kill him to quote the relevant part, and clue us in with a comment or two? I’m tempted to mail him a Dr. Bronner’s label and say “I can’t believe what he wrote here! Read this before you watch the next press conference!” ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/26 "2016-10-15T22:26:44Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Also… > > [538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/generic-ballot/) D +3.7 Isn’t that for the Senate? Or are the generic polls the same for both houses? ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/27 "2016-10-15T22:48:41Z")
> [@digs](#): > > Damn, I just waded through that whole document, and I’m still not sure what **SlackerInc** wanted me to be amazed by. > > Would it kill him to quote the relevant part, and clue us in with a comment or two? > I’m tempted to mail him a Dr. Bronner’s label and say “I can’t believe what he wrote here! Read this before you watch the next press conference!” I’m not sure either, but apparently Charlie Cook finds in it indications that Hillary is a lock. That’s what he said in a tweet, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/28 "2016-10-15T22:50:08Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I think all 62 pages are just the bee’s knees. Good stuff there. I have never seen a 62 page document that just nailed it like this. Sure, I’ve seen better 59 page documents. I once saw a 64 page document that was like tongue-kissing God every time I scrolled down. > > I might request the mods change the title of the thread to, “Once you see this you won’t believe it!” When I read pages 47 and 53, I burst into tears. You won’t believe the reason why. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/29 "2016-10-15T23:16:42Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > When I read pages 47 and 53, I burst into tears. You won’t believe the reason why. Doctors HATE page 31, and page 14 tells you how to date Margaery Tyrell from Game of Thrones. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/30 "2016-10-16T19:14:01Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Isn’t that for the Senate? Or are the generic polls the same for both houses? No. They are generic house polls. > [@](#): > > Our models are mostly based on state polls, but generic ballot polls — **which ask whether someone will vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district** — inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend-line adjustment, house-effects adjustment and demographic regression. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/31 "2016-10-16T20:14:31Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Doctors HATE page 31, and page 14 tells you how to date Margaery Tyrell from Game of Thrones. You won’t believe what page 18 looks like now! ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/32 "2016-10-16T21:03:16Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I might request the mods change the title of the thread to, “Once you see this you won’t believe it!” > [@Lemur866](#): > > When I read pages 47 and 53, I burst into tears. You won’t believe the reason why. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Doctors HATE page 31, and page 14 tells you how to date Margaery Tyrell from Game of Thrones. > [@Miller](#): > > You won’t believe what page 18 looks like now! So what you’re saying is **Slackerinc** is clickbaiting for Fox News? ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/33 "2016-10-16T21:13:33Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I didn’t think anyone unfamiliar with the terminology would open a Charlie Cook thread. 1. You failed to identify Charlie Cook and why we should care about anything he says. 2. You failed to explain what he said, leaving us to wade through 62 pages in hopes of finding a nugget of wisdom–without a clue to the identity of that nugget. Clickbait ads at least tell us what we’re looking for. 3. Who the fuck is Charlie Cook? I’m fairly up on things and this is the first I’ve heard of him. 4. What did he say? You still haven’t explained that. 5. As a group, we open new threads, even obvious spam ones. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/34 "2016-10-16T23:48:41Z")
The Cook Political Report has been around since 1984. It’s generally well respected. Anyone who pays attention to politics should at least be aware of it. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/35 "2016-10-17T00:04:18Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > The Cook Political Report has been around since 1984. It’s generally well respected. Anyone who pays attention to politics should at least be aware of it. Apparently not. Given how many folks the OP has left lost. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/36 "2016-10-17T00:05:32Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I’m out and about now and on my phone. It’s been two days. Are you still out, or do you have a different excuse now? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/37 "2016-10-18T03:41:33Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > The Cook Political Report has been around since 1984. It’s generally well respected. Anyone who pays attention to politics should at least be aware of it. Word. > [@dropzone](#): > > 1. As a group, we open new threads, even obvious spam ones. What “group” would this be? I’ve been posting on the SDMB since it was on AOL (though pretty infrequently from around 2000-2012), and I don’t open the vast, vast majority of threads. > [@Ruken](#): > > It’s been two days. Are you still out, or do you have a different excuse now? I generally try to stay off message boards and social media on the weekends. I don’t always succeed, but if you look at my activity for the past few months (since I made this “resolution”), I’m pretty good about it most weeks. ETA: > [@](#): > > “Few political analysts have a longer track record of success than the tight-knit team that runs the Cook Political Report… Founded in 1984… political junkies have relied on Cook’s forecasts for years and have rarely had reason to be disappointed with their results.” > > —Nate Silver, _The Signal and the Noise_ Do I also have to explain who Nate Silver is? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/38 "2016-10-18T04:09:28Z")
I’ve heard of Nate Silver, but not Charlie Cook. I guess I’m not a political junkie. So sue me. So I’m still not sure what exactly I was supposed to glean from this barnburner of a 62 page report. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/39 "2016-10-18T04:14:40Z")
> ETA: Keep in mind, my introduction to the link to this poll contained more information than that tweet, and more than the Facebook _The Pollsters_ post I got it from (which only said “If Charlie Cook tells you to look at a poll, look at the poll!”). So a lot of people are shooting the messenger here. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514/40 "2016-10-18T05:00:36Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > I’ve heard of Nate Silver, but not Charlie Cook. I guess I’m not a political junkie. So sue me. Ditto. Never heard of the guy. Cook, that is. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/charlie-cook-is-touting-the-latest-fox-news-poll-its-a-barnburner/768514.md?page=3)