# Chicago Mayoral Election 2015
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [January 4, 2015, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985 "2015-01-04T22:46:13Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 9
### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [March 19, 2015, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/161 "2015-03-19T17:12:34Z")
No dog in this race … live just outside city borders. But it does [not](http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/New-Poll-Shows-Jump-in-Emanuels-Lead-Over-Garcia-296725481.html) seem like Garcia is getting those who voted for the other not-Rahm candidates to choose him.
> [@](#):
>
> New Poll Shows Jump in Emanuel’s Lead Over Garcia …
>
> …The poll showed Emanuel had 51 percent of the vote and Garcia had 36 percent with 12 percent of voters undecided. According to pollsters, however, when undecided voters were asked to make a decision, they chose Emanuel by a 2-1 ratio.
> The move is a step up for Emanuel after a weekend poll by Ogden and Fry showed he had only 47.1 percent of the vote with a 10 percent lead over Garcia …
Mind you polling is not particularly deep here but it appears that Garcia’s chances are looking fairly grim, especially when the final weeks will likely have Emanuel’s team spend a lot on ads and get out their voters work that Garcia’s team has not the resources for.
As the minimally interested outsider it looks like there are some with good reasons to be upset with Rahm but too few who are upset enough to vote for the devil they don’t know.
FWIW this bit (from your link BG) of fear mongering distortion makes me not respect Chuy very much:
> [@](#):
>
> Garcia said the city’s staggering shooting rate is proof the mayor’s plans have not worked, adding, “[I’ve] been to more funerals for young people shot as a result of gun violence than the mayor will ever attend.”
Chicago is pretty on par with national trends. Homicide rates are [WAY down](http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/07/30/despite-media-coverage-chicago-violence-down-significantly-from-20-years-ago/) over the past several decades and have been mostly in the mid 400s give or take for the past decade. Yes, shootings had a blip up but crime, especially violent crime, overall was down.
> [@](#):
>
> UIC Criminologist Dennis Rosenbaum said, “We have less than half as many homicides today as we did 20 years in Chicago.”
> Rosenbaum is right. Last year saw 414 murders, as compared with 930 in 1994. … Aggravated assault and battery numbers, which include shootings, dropped 73 percent from more than 40,000 in 1994 to just under 11,000 last year. …
Now Emanuel does not get to take credit for these national trends either, but misrepresenting the facts in an attempt to blame him for a violence epidemic that does not actually exist is pretty unimpressive.
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### Author:  [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)
#### Post date: [March 19, 2015, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/162 "2015-03-19T17:49:26Z")
So Garcia wants to see the numbers before he can come up with his plan specifics? They’ve been delivered to him.
[http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/453956/emanuel-surrogates-deliver-city-audits-garcias-office](http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/453956/emanuel-surrogates-deliver-city-audits-garcias-office)
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [March 19, 2015, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/163 "2015-03-19T18:09:33Z")
> [@dalej42](#):
>
> So Garcia wants to see the numbers before he can come up with his plan specifics? They’ve been delivered to him.
> [http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/453956/emanuel-surrogates-deliver-city-audits-garcias-office](http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/453956/emanuel-surrogates-deliver-city-audits-garcias-office)
> [@](#):
>
> Garcia has punted the question of new revenues needed to solve Chicago’s $20 billion pension crisis and the $10 billion in unfunded liabilities at the Chicago Public Schools to a post-election commission that would report back in 90 days, if he wins the April 7 runoff.
>
> He won’t even talk about asking more of taxpayers until he orders “performance audits” of every city department starting with the largest: the Chicago Police Department.
That is actually very sensible.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [March 19, 2015, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/164 "2015-03-19T22:09:56Z")
Maybe sensible but not very inspiring of confidence. It’s the standard non-incumbent sales pitch … “I’ll find the waste that others cannot and eliminate it … I’ll make things run more efficiently.” It usually rings pretty hollow even when it comes from those with track records of doing so with past business ventures or other government agencies. The closest Chuy gets to that? He can boast that he worked as floor leader for Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle when _she_ balanced the county budget, mainly with kicking some cans down the road and some improved enforcement of alcohol taxes. And in that context it does say something that Preckwinkle is declining to endorse her former floor leader.
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### Author:  [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)
#### Post date: [March 20, 2015, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/165 "2015-03-20T07:41:59Z")
We get it. You think García is untrustworthy and incompetent. But hasn’t Emanuel already shown himself to be untrustworthy and incompetent? Why should he be rewarded with another term?
I’m reminded of something\*\* Alessan\*\* said in a recent thread about Israeli politics. He’d rather fire bad leaders until they get a good one.
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### Author:  [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)
#### Post date: [March 20, 2015, 10:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/166 "2015-03-20T10:50:30Z")
The Chicago ‘Man of the People’, Chuy Garcia, is off fundraising in California. I assume Garcia won’t be whining about outside influence any longer.
[http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/454830/chuy-heads-l-search-latino-support-cash-mayors-race](http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/454830/chuy-heads-l-search-latino-support-cash-mayors-race)
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [March 20, 2015, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/167 "2015-03-20T16:40:32Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#):
>
> We get it. You think García is untrustworthy and incompetent. But hasn’t Emanuel already shown himself to be untrustworthy and incompetent? Why should he be rewarded with another term?
>
> I’m reminded of something\*\* Alessan\*\* said in a recent thread about Israeli politics. He’d rather fire bad leaders until they get a good one.
No actually I have no opinion about Garcia other than that his bit on shootings does not impress. Otherwise he seems to have the main qualification of being not-Rahm. His trustworthiness and competence are unknown quantities. He seems like a nice and well intentioned person.
And not living in Chicago proper I can’t say I have a strong sense of how untrustworthy and incompetent Rahm is. I understand why some are upset with him. But then again given the circumstance he came into some would be upset with him no matter what. I do not know enough to know if anyone else could have done better and given that I can’t vote I am not going to spend too much energy trying to find out. I am a spectator.
The point I have made is merely that Chicagoans seem to be preferring the devil they know to what’s behind door number two. Generally that’s been the way in Chicago. Barring major [snowstorms](http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/The-312/February-2011/Snowpocalypse-Then-How-the-Blizzard-of-1979-Cost-the-Election-for-Michael-Bilandic/) inadequately responded to, or a candidate like Harold Washington (and Chuy aint no Harold).
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### Author:  [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)
#### Post date: [March 24, 2015, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/168 "2015-03-24T16:14:05Z")
[New poll](http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/461235/emanuel-16-point-lead-garcia-latest-poll) has Emanuel ahead with a 16-point lead. That’s even worse than previous polling showed in a head-to-head but, even if we don’t directly compare them, Garcia isn’t making any ground.
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### Author:  [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)
#### Post date: [March 24, 2015, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/169 "2015-03-24T17:56:09Z")
[http://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/news/2015/03/20/magic-johnson-drawn-in-to-chicago-public-schools.html](http://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/news/2015/03/20/magic-johnson-drawn-in-to-chicago-public-schools.html)
Magic Johnson’s company gets a nice contract for Chicago public Schools after he gives Rahm a $250,000 campaign contribution. Despite that, schools are dirtier than before the custodial work was privatized and principals are buying cleaning supplies.
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### Author:  [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)
#### Post date: [March 24, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/170 "2015-03-24T18:11:50Z")
> **["Not true and they knew it”: What Rahm Emanuel's Wall Street craze cost Chicago](https://www.salon.com/2015/03/17/not_true_and_they_knew_it%E2%80%9D_what_rahm_emanuels_wall_street_craze_cost_chicago/)**
>
> Chicago's struggling public school system had a golden chance to reap billions. Here's where it went wrong (Update)
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### Author:  [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)
#### Post date: [March 24, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/171 "2015-03-24T18:13:27Z")
> **[What Has Jesus “Chuy” Garcia Actually Accomplished in Office? A Lot, It Turns...](https://inthesetimes.com/article/it-turns-out)**
>
> It's not just that Rahm Emanuel has devastated Chicago through privatization and corruption—Chuy Garcia has a strong record of smart progressive governance.
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### Author:  [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)
#### Post date: [March 24, 2015, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/172 "2015-03-24T19:15:57Z")
Garcia is toast. I’m not exactly sure how accurate a poll for a city run off election is since they’re not common but a 16 point lead for Rahm is insurmountable since early voting started this week. The 18 percent undecided aren’t going to all break for Garcia and I bet quite a few undecided simply stay home.
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### Author:  [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)
#### Post date: [March 24, 2015, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/173 "2015-03-24T19:53:05Z")
> [@dalej42](#):
>
> Garcia is toast. I’m not exactly sure how accurate a poll for a city run off election is since they’re not common but a 16 point lead for Rahm is insurmountable since early voting started this week. The 18 percent undecided aren’t going to all break for Garcia and I bet quite a few undecided simply stay home.
Yeah, looks like my original guess of Rahm still ending up winning this thing by a margin of “15-20 points” looks like it may hold, although now I think it will be closer to 10-15. That brief period where I thought it may be a race was just that: brief. I’m fine with that. After reading through the articles in this thread, I just held my nose and put one in for the incumbent.
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### Author:  [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)
#### Post date: [March 25, 2015, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/174 "2015-03-25T23:37:57Z")
Once again, rahm is killing the schools. It’s OK though because his buddies are making their money. Say what you will about his régime but at least he made the trains run on time.
> **[CPS Schools May Be Forced To Choose Between Teachers, Toilet Paper](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chicago-schools-toilet-paper-budget-cuts_n_3473174?utm_hp_ref=tw)**
>
> CPS Schools May Be Forced To Choose Between Teachers, Toilet Paper
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### Author:  [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2015, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/175 "2015-03-26T04:01:09Z")
> [@](#):
>
> The hard truth is our elites – business and civic leaders – have sold the city out. While they strip the city of needed funds with their no-bid, non-competitive contracts for millions of dollars, they recycle a portion back into politics by funding the political machine that is designed to protect their own positions.
The quote above is from that bastion of socialism known as Forbes. [Here’s a link](http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2015/03/25/moral-bankruptcy-of-chicagos-elites/2/) to the article in case any of you Rahm fanboys and girls can be bothered to read propaganda from such a liberal rag.
Chuy may not be the solution but there is little doubt Rahm and his cronies are a huge part of the problem.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2015, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/176 "2015-03-26T13:35:26Z")
So out of curiosity I read the last two of the anti-Rahm links. Honestly, these are pretty weak sauce attacks.
There is more to be upset about with Rahm than “Protestors claim the cuts run so deep that school principals will have to choose between laying off teachers or purging schools of basic, everyday supplies …”) Really, you are looking for rallying to anti-Rahm over “Protestors claim …”?
Forbes running a guest contribution from the activist group “American Transparency” which has focused most of their energy on corruption in Illinois (not just Chicago but the College of Dupage, Glenview, Quad Cities, so on) and a smattering of others like a few scattered SBAs - that trumpets that there is still “pay to play” in Chicago?
Dang the stupid shortsighted closing of [mental health clinics](http://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/city-council-mental-health-clinics-closures-hearing/Content?oid=14436533) in low income areas where other resources do not exist is much worse.
No question there are good reasons for Chicago voters to look for a qualified alternative to Rahm. Those reasons though are not egregious enough to get Chicago voters to want to vote for someone exclusively on the qualification of being not-Rahm. Maybe Preckwinkle would have stood a chance but someone whose accomplishment list is have served under her (with her declining to even endorse him), and having decades ago worked in Washington’s administration? Being the qualified alternative for running a major city, one that is a financial hub, requires at least something more than not being the other guy and seeming nice. Reflexive throw the bum out and put another bum in is not what Chicagoans generally do; the current bum has to have been world class bad or the new bum something special. Rahm is just not so great, not world class bad, it seems, and Chuy has not made any case of what he is.
Apparently there are [“national implications”](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/22/us/chicago-mayors-race-is-cast-as-a-test-of-liberalism.html?_r=0) for the Democratic party at stake … but Chicago voters are not really all that concerned about sending a message with national implications.
Chuy needed to convince voters that he is a qualified alternative … minimally he had to fire up and expand his base … and well, it does not look like he has.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/177 "2015-03-26T15:12:28Z")
> [@dalej42](#):
>
> I think it’s because Griffin wants to make sure there’s no talk of an idiotic financial transactions tax. Rahm won’t support that idiocy, but Lewis/Garcia might.
Why is [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_transaction_tax) idiotic? And, does a city government even have the authority to impose such a tax?
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### Author:  [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2015, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/178 "2015-03-26T15:52:17Z")
I have no idea if a city government can legally impose such a tax. It’s idiotic because the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange would leave the city if one was proposed. These taxes are idiotic; they’re thrown out as a populist proposal to go after those evil traders. It didn’t work during the Dodd Frank negotiations and it especially wouldn’t work on a city wide basis.
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### Author:  [@Intergalactic\_Gladiator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Intergalactic_Gladiator)
#### Post date: [March 27, 2015, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/179 "2015-03-27T00:25:57Z")
[http://pando.com/2014/04/04/revealed-rahm-emanuel-cuts-public-pensions-diverts-money-to-benefit-campaign-donors/](http://pando.com/2014/04/04/revealed-rahm-emanuel-cuts-public-pensions-diverts-money-to-benefit-campaign-donors/)
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [March 27, 2015, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chicago-mayoral-election-2015/708985/180 "2015-03-27T01:02:21Z")
> [@dalej42](#):
>
> I have no idea if a city government can legally impose such a tax. It’s idiotic because the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange would leave the city if one was proposed. These taxes are idiotic; they’re thrown out as a populist proposal to go after those evil traders. It didn’t work during the Dodd Frank negotiations and it especially wouldn’t work on a city wide basis.
It might work very well on a federal level, the exchanges wouldn’t leave the country, and thank you for bringing the idea to my attention . . . but, why did you even bring it up? It’s not any kind of issue in this election, is it?
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