# China: Friend Or Foe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 25, 2022, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081 "2022-05-25T14:22:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jim\_B](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jim_b/32/4338_2.png) [@Jim\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_B)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2022, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/1 "2022-05-25T14:22:33Z")
Something that at least I have literally wondered about for years. Is China our (i.e., the US’s) friend or foe? You have to admit we have an unusual relation with China now. Richard Nixon opened up China to us in 1972. [Here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_visit_by_Richard_Nixon_to_China#:~:text=The%201972%20visit%20by%20United,after%20years%20of%20diplomatic%20isolation) is a brief article on that event. And they do make a lot of our products. I mean, during World War II, could you imagine Nazi Germany making all our goods and products.? Think about it. So are they friend or foe? Or are they somewhere in between? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2022, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/2 "2022-05-25T14:36:51Z")
I vote “somewhere in between”. I believe that people fall into a trap with binary thinking (good/bad, friend/foe), and that we would do well to have very good definitions of all of the possible spots on the spectrum. (Lover → friend → partner → acquaintance → etc. → competitor → opposition → etc. → enemy). In the US we have seen what happens when we promote the idea that our opposition is our enemy. So, I would put China closer to competitor (in some areas), and partner (in others). ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2022, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/3 "2022-05-25T14:52:08Z")
For sure China is currently an adversary overall, but as I have said in other threads, it’s taken to a silly comic book level at times in the US. Because, at any time, there always has to be a primary villain, and right now China is that villian. So you literally only hear either negative news about China, or neutral stuff that is nonetheless given a negative spin. Let me be clear I hate the Chinese government, and in just the last couple days more secrets of the Xinjiang training camps were leaked. But in 8 years of living in China I was sometimes surprised by how little interest most people had in the US. And even on state media, there was far less talk about adversary nations than you would find on US TV. Most of the talk was what the country could do to progress. And most of it good, to be honest. Stuff you wouldn’t hear about on international news. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2022, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/4 "2022-05-25T15:11:58Z")
Foe. We have avoided bringing issues to a head, but China is too interested in Taiwan now, and we can’t let them have it. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2022, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/5 "2022-05-25T15:12:25Z")
That’s my understanding, but it comes from nowhere near as close to the issue as your understanding does. China is complicated. Our relationship with them is complicated. On one hand, they’re our drug (ie, consumer goods) dealer so we have to measure any responses. They also hold our mortgage, so there’s that. [**Chinese Investment In The United States – BigAss PDF**](https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Chinese_Investment_in_the_United_States_Rhodium.pdf) On the other hand, they do some fairly repugnant shit (as do we, even if our repugnant shit is quantitively and qualitatively different). In terms of ‘competition,’ though: we’re eating China’s dust as they play the long game, understand where the money and power will come from in the next generation or two, and then doing whatever it takes to exert control over those resources, markets, and countries: > **[China Global Investment Tracker](https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/)** > > Editor’s note: The value of China’s overseas investment and construction combined since 2005 is $2.25 trillion. In the first half of 2022, the pandemic continued to suppress investment, while construction is in the process... > **[China’s Overseas Investment Starts the Long Climb Back](https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/chinas-overseas-investment-starts-the-long-climb-back/)** > > There has been little Chinese investment in the US the past few years. Meanwhile, US investment in China has passed $1 trillion. Technology loss through outbound American investment and exports is more pressing than through inbound investment. China is playing a very long, very farsighted game of strategy while we watch the Kardshians and Johnny Depp/Amber Heard. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2022, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/6 "2022-05-25T15:33:18Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > In terms of ‘competition,’ though: we’re eating China’s dust as they play the long game, understand where the money and power will come from in the next generation or two, and then doing whatever it takes to exert control over those resources, markets, and countries: Agreed. I want to see liberal democracies and freedom of speech win out. But right now a lot of the fundamentals don’t look good. For example, Chinese society _massively_ prizes education, and the government is making large improvements at every level. The US…in fairness, still has many of the world’s best universities. But public schools are struggling, and American culture is right now about as anti-intellectual as it is possible to imagine. I know people like to cite _Idiocracy_, but right now many aspects of US culture are _worse_. At least in that movie there was an agreed objective reality. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2022, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/7 "2022-05-25T23:10:10Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > China is playing a very long, very farsighted game of strategy while we watch the Kardshians and Johnny Depp/Amber Heard. This cuts both ways. In one sense, it’s obviously bad for us if they outcompete us. On the other hand, playing the long game means that they (presumably) aren’t interested in destabilizing modern civilization and staring a war / doing other evil shit, that will send everyone back to the Stone Age. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/8 "2022-05-26T00:42:31Z")
As pointed out, it is complicated. Chinese historically don’t view others via a friend or foe lens? Rather real politic. And “the Chinese” as a whole do not buy into “win-win”. Their societal view is “you win, then I lose.” @davndnrockies China is far from holding the US mortgage or at any kind of level that would imply leverage. Sure, maybe the Seattle property market might drop some if every Chinese citizens were to hold a fire sale. The math doesn’t work. Press used to say the same thing about Japan back in the 1980’s. The Chinese Yuan is non convertible. And is far from being fiat money anywhere more than 100 miles of the border. Economic adversary is an unequivocable yes. China has never come close to WTO obligations nor any kind of IP protection. I do believe the “world” collectively should be insist on equitable market access. And there should be serious consequences for both the State and the private industrial espionage that is taking place. Stopping Huawei on 5G is a step in the right direction. Huawei is the poster child for being a military company that got their start conterfieting switching equipment into Africa. Fun fact, even the hard hitters at Lehman Brothers, who were known for dealing with pretty much any pariah, refused to do business with Huawei over fear of being kidnapped. China views Taiwan as being both in their “backyard” and “in the family.” Hmmm, not unlike Ukraine. Taiwan happens to be surrounded by water, and have been preparing to repel invaders from the mainland since the last time they were invaded in the 1940’s. Hopefully, the Ukrainian reception (and hong kong for that matter) is making Chinese leadership stop huffing on their own crackpipe that they would be welcomed with open arms. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/9 "2022-05-26T02:25:51Z")
Aside from private investment, I was making the point that mainland China is the second biggest foreign holder of US public debt: > **[Major foreign holders U.S. treasury securities 2022 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/)** > > As of July 2022, Japan held United States treasury securities totaling about 1.23 trillion U.S. It’s a non-trivial amount that further complicates the US-China relationship. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/10 "2022-05-26T02:43:01Z")
It is a trival amount. Loot at Statista data: - In 2021, the United States had a total [public national debt] of 28.43 trillion U.S. dollars - 7.55 trillion held by foreign countries - Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions. China held 1.05 trillion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Japan held 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars worth - China holds 3.69% of the public national debt - real GDP in 2021 was ~USD19 billion, and national debt (government debt) ~USD28trillion - US consumer debt ~USD15 trillion - average daily turnover of US treasuries is in excess of USD500 million/day China is more than welcome to sell their trillion dollars. That is two days average trading of US treasuries. It is trivial and wouldn’t do more than a short term blip. (I know a trillion dollars seems like a lot, but it’s not when you’re talking the size of the US and/or the US government.) ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/11 "2022-05-26T02:51:34Z")
I don’t want to take this too far afield, and you may very well know all of this (while others may not), but I think this article summarizes the potential risks nicely: > **[How much US debt does China own and why is it important?](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3112343/us-debt-china-how-big-it-and-why-it-important)** > > As of the end of November, China owned US$1.063 trillion of the total outstanding US government debt issued by the US Department of the Treasury. Selloffs can cause cascading deleterious effects. There’s also speculation – quite difficult to confirm – that China may hold even more US debt through more opaque methods: > However, the US Treasury does warn that the data may not provide a “precise accounting of individual country ownership” of US Treasury securities, given that US securities can also be held in overseas custody accounts that may not be attributed to the actual owners. Market analysts have suspected for years that China uses securities firms in other countries to buy additional US debt. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/12 "2022-05-26T02:51:38Z")
Um. Take another look at your numbers there. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/13 "2022-05-26T02:53:21Z")
Good catch 😉 ETA: actually, it looks like a typo. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/14 "2022-05-26T03:40:11Z")
If 1 is staunch ally and 10 is staunch enemy, probably a 6 or 7. I look forward to some aspects of China. I think they’ll (hopefully) contribute to science and solving global problems like climate change. But they don’t respect human rights, they’re getting aggressive, Some of their behaviors are very short sighted. For example I read an article recently that the covid lockdowns are causing a lot of educated young people to consider leaving or never having children. Both are terrible for China. Just like the one child policy had serious long term repercussions that they’re just starting to see, their authoritarianism is probably going to have serious long term repercussions too. Authoritarian dictatorships tend to drive away the most educated and most creative people. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2022, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/15 "2022-05-26T03:42:18Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > - real GDP in 2021 was ~USD19 tillion, and national debt (government debt) ~USD28trillion > - US consumer debt ~USD15 trillion > - average daily turnover of US treasuries is in excess of USD500 billion/day Correcting typos - my bad. Easy to mix up millions, billions and trillions. 🙂 The South China Morning Post article does lay out that if China were successfully push down the global treasuries market, it would also weaken the dollar and result in less money flowing back to china from bond sales and more importantly from Chinese exports. Furthermore, China likely would only liquidate in the event of something on the order of magnitude as war with Taiwan or the US. At which point, the global bond markets would not view this act of liquidating treasuries as a catalyst to sell off the global market for treasuries. Au contraire: there is one fiat currency, one deep bond market, and one safe haven country of magnitude in times of crisis. War with Taiwan isn’t going to make global bondholders rush to buy Japanese, Singaporean, Russian, English, Swiss or any other “safe haven” bonds. In fact, the likely outcome is a global flood of money into the US that would easily absorb less than 2 days worth of treasury turnover. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2022, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-friend-or-foe/965081/16 "2022-07-04T15:16:27Z")
Looks like yet another self-interested strategic move by China, in another resource rich African nation: > **[Chinese firm prepares to hand over new US$140 million parliament to Zimbabwe](https://news.yahoo.com/chinese-firm-prepares-hand-over-093000050.html)** > > China is preparing to hand over a new US$140 million parliament building as a gift to Zimbabwe - the latest in a series of grand projects across Africa designed to deepen its influence in the continent, where it is the largest trading partner and... I like this quote (because it agrees with what I said \): > Nantulya has previously described China as playing the long game, saying in February: “Its presence is felt each time an African walks into any of those buildings. China is creating a portrait of itself as an enduring partner that remains present and stands in solidarity with African governments.” > **[Zimbabwe - Mining and Minerals](https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/zimbabwe-mining-and-minerals)** > > This is a best prospect industry sector for this country.  Includes a market overview and trade data. Walk softly, and carry a big fat checkbook.