War.
Within the next 25 years, I expect China to have significant internal strife (perhaps rising to the level of civil war) and/or a major external conflict.
Those of you who predict “war”. What exactly are your reasons? Has there been any real historical precedence of a gender inbalance causing a country to become more warlike?
I’m not predicting it for gender imbalance reasons. I’m predicting it because China is spoiling for a fight.
Between Taiwan, the availability of resources and land in a sparsely populated and poorly defended Siberia, and continued jockying with India for influence in South Asia, I think a major conflict involving China is very likely within a generation or two.
The Chinese Communists cannot achieve all of their goals through commerce alone, and they won’t give up power peacefully. Hence, there likely will be an external or a civil war.
How would the Chinese induce foreign women to go there?
:: show a picture of the Shanghai skyline ::
:: talk about the 20,000 km of expressways built in the last five years ::
“Look! We have prosperity!”
:: offer free classes in Modern Standard Chinese ::
or
:: permit outmigration of men ::
If the major “Meet and marry a Russian woman” sites start offering Chinese versions, we’ll know something’s up.
Come to think of it, Thailand and Vietnam and the Philippines are also exporting “mail-order brides.” Maybe they could find placement without having to travel so far. They would at any rate fit into Chinese society more easily than Russians would (being culturally Asian, and not looking quite so different from Han-Chinese).
To a caucasian, maybe. The ethnic groups in the Far East have never had trouble telling each other apart, or engaging in wars and massacres when it suited them.
I’m expecting large-scale conflict in Asia in my lifetime. I just hope it doesn’t go nuclear.
Politically correct but rubbish. It happens all the time.
Individuals may “pass” now and then and border areas are fuzzy, but a Vietnamese transported to Shenyang is far more likely to be spotted as a foreigner than blend in with the crowd.
I don’t see how this is Politically Correct, though. As I understood the term, it’d be PC of me to maintain that Asians naturally all get along and only differences imposed by outsiders turn them against each other.
And you base this opinion on what exactly? The knowledge that a large proportion of Vietnamese people are ethnically Han Chinese perhaps?
The PC line is that asiatic peoples are visually distinctive.
Well, if that’s where you feel like putting it, be my guest.
The increased aggression theory has been discussed in American right-wing circles for years. The most recent mention, from 2004, says
Maybe it won’t lead to outward aggression. But try and imagine a society with nearly 20% more males than females. That’s alot of built-up, testosterone-fueled energy you’ll have perculating:1. Resurfacing of prostitution?
2. Rise in AIDS rates?
3. Govenrment sanctioned polygamy?
4. Crime rates soaring?
5. More acceptance of alternative lifestyles?
Oh crap, didn’t realise this was a old dead thread. Sorry.
In the interest of preventing a recuurence, I am closing it.
You’re still welcome to post your observation. Simply open a new thread with a link to this one or to a post in this one.