# China tests anti-satellite weapon; Space Race Version 2.0 ahead? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 19, 2007, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589 "2007-01-19T14:54:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2007, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/1 "2007-01-19T14:54:23Z")
The Chinese have successfully [launched a missile that destroyed an old weather satellite.](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/world/asia/18cnd-china.html?em&ex=1169269200&en=6af286d52135490d&ei=5087%0A) The U.S. has “expressed our concern” about this new step in the “weaponization of space” – but we can only protest feebly; the Bush Admin has resisted any global test ban treaty, and its latest revision of the National Space Policy [rules out arms control.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=393489&highlight=space) Are looking at the beginning of a new international space race? Like during the Cold War – but a space race where the superpowers will compete, not merely to put probes and astronauts into space, but to put weapons, offensive and defensive, into space? Is NASA’s new stated goal of a [permanent Moonbase](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=399138) based, at least in part, on military considerations? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2007, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/2 "2007-01-19T17:49:15Z")
I think that until Star Wars is up and running, and there is a defense against nuclear missiles, mankind is constantly on the virge of destroying itself at any given moment of the day. If another superpower is needed to get movement going again on future-tech weaponry and defense, so far as I’m concerned, that’s probably a good thing. We can already kill most of all life on the planet, so it’s not like that can get any worse. So the best case is that we do start being able to defend against it. Though you do have to hope that Bush doesn’t even try to put any sort of thought into concerning himself with China. Let’s get the technology before we decide to piss them off… ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2007, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/3 "2007-01-19T18:01:15Z")
“weaponization of space” Why would they need to do that? This test just demonstrated that they can hit anything in LEO from the ground. They also have ICBM’s. Where else are they going to shoot? Geosynchronous orbit? The moon? And, once again with the angst-filled “ZOMG we can’t let some other country have the same military technology we’ve had for 20 years! What will _happen???_” ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2007, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/4 "2007-01-19T19:46:20Z")
I do hope it does. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2007, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/5 "2007-01-19T21:57:44Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] I do hope it does. [/QUOTE] You mean, you’re hoping for a U.S.-China space race? A **militarized** space race? Me too. Spinoff, you know. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/6 "2007-01-20T01:36:52Z")
I’m not saying bad things can’t come from it. They can. But, you know, I can think of worse ways for our leaders to wave their genitalia in the air. This one’d give us a heck of a lot of good side-effects. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/7 "2007-01-20T02:17:31Z")
Everything I know about space-based combat comes from Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising but having said that… Hasn’t the US had the ability to shoot down satellites for 20 some years now? Why the concern all of a sudden? Why doesn’t the US just say “Okay, you shoot down one of our satellites and we’ll shoot down _all_ of yours!”? ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/8 "2007-01-20T02:24:50Z")
[QUOTE=DWMarch] Everything I know about space-based combat comes from Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising but having said that… Hasn’t the US had the ability to shoot down satellites for 20 some years now? Why the concern all of a sudden? Why doesn’t the US just say “Okay, you shoot down one of our satellites and we’ll shoot down _all_ of yours!”? [/QUOTE] Well…we need our GPS satellites for our military. We need our spy satellites, our com satellites, and so on. The US has more satellites in orbit than the rest of the world put together. ---
**Author:** ![Sapo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ec9cab/32.png) [@Sapo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sapo)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/9 "2007-01-20T03:01:48Z")
Blanket bombing Iran or pouring billions on the space race… Go China! ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/10 "2007-01-20T09:54:03Z")
I can’t see what the fuss is about - China has had the capability for ages, sticking satellites in orbit is a bit trickier than zapping them I would be very interested in asking the Chinese why they did it, probably the answer is that the thing was messing something up. A rational Western response would be to avoid making a fuss. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/11 "2007-01-20T11:27:19Z")
A space race? Yes please! The sooner we get our butts off this planet, the better. ---
**Author:** ![hawthorne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@hawthorne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hawthorne)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/12 "2007-01-20T13:47:08Z")
> [@](#): > > _FRDE_ > I can’t see what the fuss is about > > - China has had the capability for ages, […] I think it’s a big deal. FWIW, this was the lede on the front pages of broadsheet newspapers here today. The big deal is that they did it. It’s one of a number of signals that China’s been sending that indicate a more assertive stance in world affairs. A couple of previous threads over the last few months about aspects of this: [Are Counties Allowed To “Blind” Spy Satellites?](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=392625) and [Chinese Sub Tracks US task Force?](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=396053) It looks like my comments in the second thread were quite wrong. My links in the first thread are useful context, and include this quote from the Washington Post article > [@](#): > > The Bush policy accepts current international agreements but states: “The United States will oppose the development of new legal regimes or other restrictions that seek to prohibit or limit U.S. access to or use of space.” > > A number of nations have pushed for talks to ban space weapons, and the United States has long been one of a handful of nations opposed to the idea. Although it had abstained in the past when proposals to ban space weapons came up in the United Nations, last October the United States voted for the first time against a call for negotiations – the only “no” against 160 “yes” votes. > > The U.S. position flows in part from the fact that so many key weapons systems are now dependent on information and communications from orbiting satellites, analysts said. The U.S. military has developed and deployed far more space-based technology than any other nation, giving it great strategic advantages. But with the superior technology has come a perceived vulnerability to attacks on essential satellites. > > The new policy was applauded by defense analyst Baker Spring of the conservative Heritage Foundation. He said that he supported the policy’s rejection of international agreements or treaties, as well as its emphasis on protecting military assets and placing missile defense components in space. He also said that he liked the policy’s promotion of commercial enterprises in space and its apparent recognition that private satellites will need military protection as well. > > The issue of possible hostilities in space became more real last month when National Reconnaissance Office Director Donald M. Kerr told reporters that a U.S. satellite had recently been “painted,” or illuminated, by a laser in China. Gen. James E. Cartwright, the top U.S. military officer in charge of operations in space, told the newsletter Inside the Pentagon last week that it remained unclear whether China had tried to disrupt the satellite. I think this looks pretty bad. I don’t know how the current policy would have gone if things had been going rather better in Iraq, but it looks to me like China is taking advantage of the US’s strategic position. On the one hand, the US is avoiding committing to a continuing non-military space (which other countries must see as an attempt to dominate), on the other they have their hands full. China’s response shows it is unwilling to accept US dominance of space (and therefore communications and surveillance) and believes it can flaunt its saying so due to the US’s weak strategic position. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/13 "2007-01-20T14:44:46Z")
[QUOTE=Ethilrist] “weaponization of space” Why would they need to do that? This test just demonstrated that they can hit anything in LEO from the ground. They also have ICBM’s. Where else are they going to shoot? Geosynchronous orbit? The moon? [/QUOTE] [I’m afraid it doesn’t work that way,](http://www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/IngPat.shtml) **Ethilrist.** ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/14 "2007-01-20T14:47:03Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] I can’t see what the fuss is about - China has had the capability for ages, sticking satellites in orbit is a bit trickier than zapping them [/quote] Have **we** ever done that? From the surface? Even as a test? [QUOTE=FRDE] I would be very interested in asking the Chinese why they did it, probably the answer is that the thing was messing something up. [/QUOTE] No, based on the linked story it appears they destroyed that old satellite just to test their new weapons system. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/15 "2007-01-20T14:57:34Z")
And, of course, there is also potential for weaponization **beyond** low Earth orbit – see [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8094201&postcount=128) and posts following. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/16 "2007-01-20T14:59:49Z")
If they used such a thing, the US already has the Mutually Assured Destruction part of the equation in place automatically and it favors the U.S. without firing any additional missiles. China desperately needs the U.S. for its own economic continuation. I have no idea why China would do such an aggressive, pointless thing to destroy a U.S. satellite in order to provoke the U.S. We have backup GPS satellites as well as backups for all others because they are prone to failure on their own. If they started blasting our own satellites one after the other for some unknown reason, that signals the beginning of World War III and diplomatic relations would have to take place. The U.S. has the upper-hand well there as well. To assume that China would blow up a U.S. satellite on its own is hopelessly unrealistic as to the chain of events that would occur after than and this isn’t some Si-Fi movie. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/17 "2007-01-20T17:15:09Z")
[QUOTE=DWMarch] Everything I know about space-based combat comes from Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising but having said that… Hasn’t the US had the ability to shoot down satellites for 20 some years now? Why the concern all of a sudden? Why doesn’t the US just say “Okay, you shoot down one of our satellites and we’ll shoot down _all_ of yours!”? [/QUOTE] There are two issues here; one is the very real concern of orbital debris, and the other is political. The first is a signficant concern. Demolishing a satellite in orbit leaves thousands of pieces of debris from the size of small flakes of paint up to major pieces of structure, all moving at orbital velocities, i.e. several km/s. Should your communications satellite, space telescope, or Shuttle intersect the debris field while crossing that orbit, major damage to flight or protection systems could occur. Pollution from older satellites and space boosters is enough of a concern, but at least it’s largely intact and trackable; the small remains of a demolished satellite are not and represent a significant hazard. The second is political. Yes, the United States and the former U.S.S.R. both developed and performed limited testing on ASAT weapons. They also made an agreement not to further test (and at least, ostensibly, to develop) such weapons. It’s arguable that the U.S. has not held to its end of the bargin (and I highly suspect the same of the pre-collapse Soviet Union) but no outright testing or deployment has occured. However, for another party to come out and openly display both intention and sufficient technical prowess to develop such weapons begs for competition; as others have pointed out, the U.S. and Europe are highly dependent upon satellites, and for a nation like China to display the capability to attack them is inherently threatening. Hence, it may very well result in another space race, and worse yet, one in which one party is significantly disadvantaged in initial capability and thus willing to take more risks. It is somewhat disingeneous to suggest that China should not develop such weapons while the United States still holds the capability and refuses to unilaterally disarm. Naturally, the Chinese want to develop equivilent capability, if for no other reason than to compete on the world stage in a chest puffing competition, though I doubt that this is their exclusive aim; the Chinese seem to have become relatively low-key and very practically-minded in the post-Tiananmen Square era. (The goverment is still run by a bunch of evil bastards, but they’re _smart_ evil bastards, which is more than certain countries can say currently.) Regarding the OP’s question regarding the Bush Administration’s thrust to return to the Moon and establish a permanent base, it has always been my contention that this was driven entirely by advances in China’s manned space program. Despite the apparent insincerity of the actual effort (about which I’ll restrain my commentary, only to note that said plans are seriously incomplete) it does serve as an excuse for militarization of space which was backburnered after the Reagan-era and the _Challenger_ loss. As long as China claims to be going to the Moon, we will to. If they stop, so will we. It’s a sad, stupid way to do business, but at least it’s an impetus to do _something_ rather than muck about on the increasingly hobbled and irrelevent International Space Station. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/18 "2007-01-20T22:04:59Z")
[QUOTE=Stranger On A Train] Yes, the United States and the former U.S.S.R. both developed and performed limited testing on ASAT weapons. They also made an agreement not to further test (and at least, ostensibly, to develop) such weapons. [/QUOTE] That treaty was [proposed](http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/space_weapons/a-draft-treaty-limiting-asat-weapons.html) but never ratified. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2007, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/19 "2007-01-20T23:16:09Z")
…from those Chinese generals? And LORAL CORP.-selling all that advanced mmissile guidance technology to China? Nobody saw that as a problem at the time…well, this definately changes things! Let’s face it…the Chinese now can neutralize any US advantage-and they made NO secret of their plans! It reminds me of the comment of a Chinese general (talking of Bill Clinton) …“we like your presiden :smack: t!” ---
**Author:** ![633squadron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/6/ee59a6/32.png) [@633squadron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/633squadron)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2007, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589/20 "2007-01-21T04:08:20Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Is NASA’s new stated goal of a [permanent Moonbase](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=399138) based, at least in part, on military considerations? [/QUOTE] I doubt it. I think it’s more that NASA is trying to figure out what to do next, given that the Shuttle and the ISS haven’t gone the way they wanted. A moon base is something that NASA thinks it might be able to do. The infrastructure they’re proposing is based a lot more on the Russian model, which is to develop a few ultra-reliable base systems and then modify them slightly for different tasks. I can’t really figure out what China is trying to accomplish with its latest moves. The best I can come up with is that the Chinese want to send a clear message: we are **not** a Third-World nation, we are equal in “rank” to Western Europe and the US. We don’t pay enough attention to the feeling among many Chinese that they have something to prove after centuries of domination by the West. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-tests-anti-satellite-weapon-space-race-version-2-0-ahead/388589.md?page=2)