### Author:  [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/1 "2006-01-20T02:50:58Z")
Lou Dobbs had a segment of tonight’s program discussing China’s technology industry and how it seems to be getting bigger and bigger as we watch it in our rear-view mirror.
> [@](#):
>
> _LISA SYLVESTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT:_
>
> China rings in the new year at the end of this month, but its leaders are already looking ahead to the next 15 years. That’s the amount of time the country is giving itself to “break the international monopoly on strategic high-tech.”
>
> The communist country is focusing on space exploration, nanoscience, nuclear and strategic energy. If China dominates these fields, it would have a major impact on U.S. national security.
>
> _\_
>
> China already trains an estimated 300,000 engineers every year. The United States, only 60,000.
Full transcript [here](http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0601/19/ldt.01.html), about half-way down the page. Look for “Lisa Sylvester reports”.
My initial reaction would normally be favorable - anybody making IT advances is a good thing unless they’re part of the Axis of Evil®. Even more so if they happen to be a major exporter of said IT advances. China has spent the past ten years reverse-engineering a lot of what we’ve made; no reason why we shouldn’t return the favor. But my Pollyannish reaction is tempered by memories of the old U.S.S.R. - a technology race lead to an arms race and then to a cold war.
There are so many variables involved, I’m not sure it’s possible to make any accurate predictions. Would a tech race aid in the fall of communism? Or would communism _have to_ fall before China could truly become a major technological power?
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### Author:  [@Noctolator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noctolator)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/2 "2006-01-20T03:13:12Z")
> [@Patty O'Furniture](#):
>
> There are so many variables involved, I’m not sure it’s possible to make any accurate predictions. Would a tech race aid in the fall of communism? Or would communism _have to_ fall before China could truly become a major technological power?
I think China would have to seriously bring up the quality and international appeal of its research universities to really surpass us in technology development. They can effectively, quickly and cheaply reverse-engineer everything they want to and they can even provide a much larger market for technology than us [soon, a majority of webpages will be in Chinese; [Baidu.com](http://Baidu.com)’s IPO trashed Google’s by the numbers] but more folks still flock to the U.S. for graduate work, where the cutting-edge work is occurring…
My speculation is that china will have to inculcate a culture of greater openness to have a similar appeal to the next wave of technocrats, engineers and the like.
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### Author:  [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/3 "2006-01-20T05:56:37Z")
This is only going to get worse. The political climate is actively anti-intellectual, anti-science, and anti-education.
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### Author:  [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/4 "2006-01-20T06:13:50Z")
I welcome the competition. Let’s see if they can handle it before they break down.
Five bucks says they can’t.
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### Author:  [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/5 "2006-01-20T06:24:14Z")
Globalization, my friends. There will be no such thing as a country being ahead of another soon. Remember how afraid of Japan surpassing us we used to be? Global corporations will hire whoever has the expertise, it doesn’t matter where they are from. The old nationalistic rivalries are stale. Sure there is some rivalry, but American companies will be purchasing Chinese components for the board that goes into the Japanese videogame console, and they’ll be supported from a call center in India. JPL and Sandia Labs will continue to be at the forefront of things. They’ll invent something we didn’t invent, we’ll invent something they didn’t. It’s not a zero sum game.
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### Author:  [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/6 "2006-01-20T11:49:07Z")
> [@lissener](#):
>
> This is only going to get worse. The political climate is actively anti-intellectual, anti-science, and anti-education.
wrong on every count. It might have been true in the past, but it sure is not true now.
There are areas like stem cell research where China is far ahead of the US.
US still has the pure research advantage for now. China is starting to do more and more of it though. Will the US continue to lead the way or falter is really the question.
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### Author:  [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/7 "2006-01-20T12:16:19Z")
> [@China Guy](#):
>
> wrong on every count. It might have been true in the past, but it sure is not true now.
>
> There are areas like stem cell research where China is far ahead of the US.
>
> US still has the pure research advantage for now. China is starting to do more and more of it though. Will the US continue to lead the way or falter is really the question.
I don’t think he was referring to China.
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### Author:  [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/8 "2006-01-20T12:27:35Z")
> [@tagos](#):
>
> I don’t think he was referring to China.
Doh!
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### Author:  [@Tomcat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tomcat)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/9 "2006-01-20T17:14:07Z")
> [@tagos](#):
>
> I don’t think he was referring to China.
Or maybe he was…It seems that much is changing muchly in China, however, there are those little tidbits we hear of Professors being jailed, human rights blahblahblah…
I have a fear that China could become a, well, something not good. What do you do with a quarter billion un-married men, stockpiles of scrap metal (they are the main buyers of all things metal, or so my friend in the steel biz says), advancing technology and a society built on millenia of the stratification of people? You go to war. You conquer. You control.
Might not happen in 5 years. Might not in 10. But…Who could stop China from taking over the world in 20 years if it continues as it has for the past 20? Hand 250,000,000 guys the latest tech and weaponry and tell them how great their ancestors would feel if they happened to take over the world and I bet they’d fight their way across the continent, then backtrack across to Alaska like some ‘Risk’ game strategy. Yes, very alarmist and extreme, but…Really, what do you do with all those guys and guns? Hold _fabulous_ parties at the firing range? :eek:
-Tcat
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### Author:  [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/10 "2006-01-20T17:16:56Z")
I think China has some rather serious political hurdles to get over before we need to even start thinking about worrying. Its certainly going to be decades (if ever) that China becomes a technology leader across the board, overtopping the US (and Europe/Japan) to take the top spot. They certainly aren’t going to be able to keep going full steam with the current political kludge they have…something will have to give at some point. I’ll wait to see how the cookie crumbles one way or the other before I break out in a sweat.
> [@lissener](#):
>
> This is only going to get worse. The political climate is actively anti-intellectual, anti-science, and anti-education.
:rolleyes: Practically the dark ages here, ehe?
-XT
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### Author:  [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/11 "2006-01-20T17:19:36Z")
> [@Tomcat](#):
>
> Might not happen in 5 years. Might not in 10. But…Who could stop China from taking over the world in 20 years if it continues as it has for the past 20? Hand 250,000,000 guys the latest tech and weaponry and tell them how great their ancestors would feel if they happened to take over the world and I bet they’d fight their way across the continent, then backtrack across to Alaska like some ‘Risk’ game strategy. Yes, very alarmist and extreme, but…Really, what do you do with all those guys and guns? Hold fabulous parties at the firing range?
Taking over the world?? One word for you…LOGISTICS.
-XT
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### Author:  [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/12 "2006-01-20T17:25:42Z")
First off, the Chinese have been setting goals like this for the last 60 years. So this is nothing new. More to the point, the size of the country says little about its technological or economic power, push come to shove. China still is dealing with a legacy of authortarianism and communism. (and believe me, the Chinese are not free, economically or otherwise, even with the experiments in free markets).
Of course, it’s always easier to catch up than lead.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/13 "2006-01-20T17:39:51Z")
Agreed that the current American climate of anti-intellectualism and the current state of education (low on critical thinking in general, let alone on the skills needed to critically evaluate scientific progress) handicapps the US. And that China has a higher priority placed on educating engineers and technicians. And that investment will, to some degree, follow where the talent is available cheaply.
But breakthroughs? Despite globalization, China is still relatively insular. Breakthroughs require that reative spark that comes from different ideas knocking against each other. The whirling dervishes of American culture(s) still has the advantage there. And because of that we still have the advantage of attracting top-players from around the world: other cultures drain their brains on our plains in the main even if our own we do not train.
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### Author:  [@Tomcat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tomcat)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/14 "2006-01-20T17:56:23Z")
> [@xtisme](#):
>
> Taking over the world?? One word for you…LOGISTICS.
>
> -XT
Logistics? A country that at any moment in time can get 100,000 widgits made and shipped to ANYWHERE in the world within a week, and you want to discuss logistics?
We ain’t talkin’ ‘bout the Nazi’s problems with single-track railroads anymore. We’re not talking about through-put or bottlenecks anymore - they excel at that. You want something envisioned/copied, created and delivered? Where do you go? China. They have the ability to work out any logistical problem, no matter how great. Delivering 50,000,000 soldiers to the front door of one country while 20,000,000 show up in another while only 5,000,000 storm the Vatican is a logistical problem that I believe the Chinese would easily be able to handle. Yes, we’re talking the movement (and feeding, housing, etc) of greater numbers than ever experienced in history…but we’re also talking about a country that deals with these things all the time. Does any other country deal with logistics more than China? They’re all the fuckin’ way **over there** and half my life involves their products.
(above all said in good-humoured jest)
-Tcat
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### Author:  [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/15 "2006-01-20T18:20:26Z")
For the most part, I agree with what **mswas** said about globalization diminishing the concept of one country getting ahead of another, although there are limits to that, within military research. This subject also reminds me of a quote I read, which I’ll paraphrase: “Stupid ecomomies can’t retain smart people.” While this is obviously not entirely true, it’s true enough that I’m willing to believe that most of China’s best brains are already working on new technology in countries where the financial rewards are highest. China’s not there yet, and I’m not sure they’re even on a path to get there.
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### Author:  [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/16 "2006-01-20T18:32:45Z")
> [@lissener](#):
>
> This is only going to get worse. The political climate is actively anti-intellectual, anti-science, and anti-education.
And anti-worker.
Students entering college today may feel there’s little purpose in sweating through a CS or engineering degree. No matter how well they do, when they come out the other end, they may find that people on the other side of the world are fully capable of and clamoring to do their job for a tenth of the salary. I realize I’m being a bit melodramatic here, and this may be more a perception than reality. I also acknowledge the fact that there remain powerful reasons for keeping tech jobs here, but still the perception exists and may well lead to fewer graduates in technology.
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### Author:  [@brickbacon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brickbacon)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/17 "2006-01-20T18:46:46Z")
It’s not that China is catching up as much as it is the US slowing down. [This](http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/05/10/MNG9O6IK6G1.DTL) notes some interesting facts about American education:
> [@](#):
>
> In a report last week, the National Science Board said there is a troubling decline in the number of American students training to be scientists. **The number of 18- to 24-year-olds who receive science degrees has fallen to 17th in the world, whereas it ranked third three decades ago** , the report found.
>
> – The percentage of scientific papers written by Americans has fallen 10 percent since 1992, according to the National Science Foundation.
>
> – The percentage of American papers published in the top physics journal Physical Review has fallen from 61 percent to 29 percent since 1983.
>
> – There has been a surge in patents awarded to Asian countries. From 1980 to 2003, Japan’s share of world industrial patents rose from 12 percent to 21 percent, and Taiwan’s from zero to 3 percent. By contrast, the U.S. share of patents has fallen from 60 percent to 52 percent since 1980
The situation probably isn’t as dire some of the figures suggest, but I think it’s something we should worry about
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### Author:  [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/18 "2006-01-20T19:08:09Z")
The thing is, modern industrial countries need huge investments just to keep place. You need to take the people off the farms and out of the factories and send them to school. You need schools, hospitals, lawyers, police, health inspectors, doctors, the list is endless. Industrial output is fine, but who’s going to buy that stuff? You can’t have a country of only peasants and proletarians, people have to do other jobs.
The idea that China can send millions of soldiers marching around the world is ludicrious. Every soldier requires food, ammunition, fuel, medical supplies, spare parts, a vast amount of goods. The days when soldiers could forage off the countryside are long gone, and never really existed in the first place. A foraging army quickly used up all the food around it and would have to keep moving, and a foraging army must disperse which makes it vulnerable to counterattack. In any case, at a given point a truck can’t bring food and fuel to the front because the truck driver eats all the food and burns all the fuel before he reaches the front.
China has huge, possibly insurmountable political and economic problems. Maybe someday they’ll be as free and wealthy as Mexico, but they’ve got a lot of work to do before they get there.
Since China is such a huge country there’s quite a bit of surplus available, even if most people are peasant farmers. But there’s only so many scientists and engineers that you can subsidize on the backs of a billion impoverished peasants and industrial workers. Eventually those workers are going to want a piece of that surplus for themselves.
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### Author:  [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)
#### Post date: [January 20, 2006, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/19 "2006-01-20T21:21:30Z")
> [@Tomcat](#):
>
> Logistics? A country that at any moment in time can get 100,000 widgits made and shipped to ANYWHERE in the world within a week, and you want to discuss logistics?
If you want to talk about projecting military beyond your own borders you would need to seriously look at logistics. Its not just a matter of shipping 100,000 widgits a day anywhere in the world, ken? Europe ships widgits galore and so does myriad other countries…and THEY aren’t capable of projecting a serious force much beyond their borders either. Certainly not a high tech military composed of all those millions you were talking about. The US can’t even do that today…and we are top dog. So yeah…I think you should re-assess what you know of military logistics and China’s current capabilities in that reguard…and project what exactly they would need in the future just to be able to project a fraction of their military beyond their borders.
> [@Tomcat](#):
>
> We ain’t talkin’ ‘bout the Nazi’s problems with single-track railroads anymore. We’re not talking about through-put or bottlenecks anymore - they excel at that. You want something envisioned/copied, created and delivered? Where do you go? China. They have the ability to work out any logistical problem, no matter how great. Delivering 50,000,000 soldiers to the front door of one country while 20,000,000 show up in another while only 5,000,000 storm the Vatican is a logistical problem that I believe the Chinese would easily be able to handle. Yes, we’re talking the movement (and feeding, housing, etc) of greater numbers than ever experienced in history…but we’re also talking about a country that deals with these things all the time. Does any other country deal with logistics more than China? They’re all the fuckin’ way over there and half my life involves their products.
Let me ask you something then chief. If its so easy why is it the US is the ONLY country that can project a size-able force beyond our own borders? You really have no idea what you are talking about with those numbers. To put it in perspective think about this…the US has been having logistics nightmares for the past few years trying to project aprox 150k troops in Iraq as well as what we have deployed in Afghanistan…and WE have the most modern military in the world to date with transport coming out of our ears practically and an economy that even when it sucks here is booming compared to much of the rest of the world. Again, you really need to take a step back and evaluate what you are saying with those kinds of numbers…NO ONE could support that. Certainly not China.
> [@Tomcat](#):
>
> (above all said in good-humoured jest)
No worries 'mano. 🙂 We is just talkin here, no?
-XT
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### Author:  [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)
#### Post date: [January 21, 2006, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/china-to-pass-u-s-as-technology-leader/340766/20 "2006-01-21T03:33:06Z")
Actually, logistics in China pretty well sucks. It’s slowly improving as the base infrastructure improves. Logistics is the number one problem for the large multinationals that are my customers in China.
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