# China's 'secret' 2020 plan for Taiwan. Thoughts? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 27, 2020, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566 "2020-05-27T21:27:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2020, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566/161 "2020-06-08T10:40:46Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > But it wouldn’t work. The problem is the Republic of China can’t grant independence to the mainland because the mainland isn’t seeking independence. What is the sound a whoosh makes in Chinese? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2020, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566/162 "2020-06-08T14:51:10Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Can you be more specific about your allegation here? You want me to ‘prove’ that a lot of Mainland Chinese are in Taiwan both as tourists and for business? :dubious: To me, this is a ‘prove water is wet’ and I’m not in the mood for such games. If you know anything about Taiwan you know it’s a silly question. > [@](#): > > It seem to me that the crackdown on Hong Kong has a much more chilling effect on the Taiwanese population that all the screws than all the measures you listed here. People are annoyed by the “Taiwan province of China” but the shitstorm after Hong Kong protests as an order of magnitude (or even greater) than those tiny things. Certainly what has happened in Hong Kong has had a chilling effect in Taiwan. Never said it didn’t. A lot of things contributed to Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election and the defeat in this election of the KMT. But it goes beyond just what’s happening in Hong Kong, and it’s been a systematic effort for years, especially since 2016 by the CCP to isolate Taiwan and cut it off, and this is at all levels, from corporate, to pressure of governments to propaganda and attempts to shift the narrative. Hong Kong was definitely a wake up call for Taiwan, but the Taiwanese were already awake to the threat before even the earlier rounds of Hong Kong protest. Hopefully it’s a wake up call to all the myriad people who have been sleeping under their rocks and not paying attention to what’s been going on. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2020, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566/163 "2020-06-08T21:08:04Z")
For what it’s worth, the KMT’s most recent presidential candidate (the mayor of Kaohsiung) was just recalled from office by [a vote of 97 percent to 3 percent.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Kaohsiung_mayoral_recall_vote) ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2020, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566/164 "2020-06-09T00:55:27Z")
Woah, what happend with the recall? Christ, Han Kuo-yu was the poster child a year ago. He blew away Foxconn’s billionair founder Terry Kuo for the KMT nomination. I haven’t been following Taiwan politics closely since Covid. Anyone have the cliff notes on this one? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2020, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566/165 "2020-06-09T01:00:47Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > Han Kuo-yu was the poster child a year ago. He blew away Foxconn’s billionair founder Terry Kuo for the KMT nomination. I haven’t been following Taiwan politics closely since Covid. Anyone have the cliff notes on this one? After Han Kuo-Yu lost the presidential election, a recall movement against him commenced not long afterwards. There are different motives put forth; the Greens claim it’s because of Han’s rank incompetence, Trumpy nature, pro-China leaning and neglecting Kaohsiung to run for the presidency, the Blues claim it’s because the Greens fear him as a formidable future candidate and want to kick him while he’s down. Whatever the case may be, the recall movement got enough signatures and passed the requirements to proceed to an election. Han, for some mysterious reason, then instructed his supporters to boycott the election and _ **not** _ turn out to vote for him. He was likely to lose the recall vote no matter what anyway, but this weird strategy of his caused his defeat to go from being merely normal-margined (i.e., losing 60% to 40%) to losing by an utterly lopsided margin (97 to 3 percent.) ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2020, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566/166 "2020-06-09T20:56:51Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > After Han Kuo-Yu lost the presidential election, a recall movement against him commenced not long afterwards. There are different motives put forth; the Greens claim it’s because of Han’s rank incompetence, Trumpy nature, pro-China leaning and neglecting Kaohsiung to run for the presidency, the Blues claim it’s because the Greens fear him as a formidable future candidate and want to kick him while he’s down. > > Whatever the case may be, the recall movement got enough signatures and passed the requirements to proceed to an election. Han, for some mysterious reason, then instructed his supporters to boycott the election and _ **not** _ turn out to vote for him. He was likely to lose the recall vote no matter what anyway, but this weird strategy of his caused his defeat to go from being merely normal-margined (i.e., losing 60% to 40%) to losing by an utterly lopsided margin (97 to 3 percent.) thanks for that. My Taiwanese buddies were all pretty impressed with him, but the constant refrain was he’s only been mayor for ~6 months, and need to see him deliver something. I mean he is from Kaohsiong (sp?) who gave us the ground breaking and entertaining Hsu-Shaodan DPP candidate back in the late 80’s. Good to see the trend continue to now. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566/167 "2020-06-14T22:35:26Z")
> [@XT](#): > > You want me to ‘prove’ that a lot of Mainland Chinese are in Taiwan both as tourists and for business? :dubious: To me, this is a ‘prove water is wet’ and I’m not in the mood for such games. If you know anything about Taiwan you know it’s a silly question. I had thought that my question would be obvious, especially as I had referred to the impact of Chinese tourists in Taiwan and of the interaction of Chinese and Taiwanese businesses. OK. One more time, to eliminate any doubt as to what I am referring to. > [@XT](#): > > …and I doubt all of them are just citizens there for fun. What specifically are you suggesting with the ellipsis and “there for fun?” > [@XT](#): > > Certainly what has happened in Hong Kong has had a chilling effect in Taiwan. Never said it didn’t. A lot of things contributed to Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election and the defeat in this election of the KMT. But it goes beyond just what’s happening in Hong Kong, and it’s been a systematic effort for years, especially since 2016 by the CCP to isolate Taiwan and cut it off, and this is at all levels, from corporate, to pressure of governments to propaganda and attempts to shift the narrative. **Hong Kong was definitely a wake up call for Taiwan, but the Taiwanese were already awake to the threat before even the earlier rounds of Hong Kong protest.** I don’t agree with this at all. I’ve been living here in Taiwan since 2013, and this is not my experience. First, it’s as impossible to make a defining statement encompassing all the citizens of any country concerning something controversial. Look at gun control, abortion, either COVID-19 or the recent demonstrations. Both Japanese and Taiwanese friends ask how Americans view these things, and it would be foolish to pick on side and to say "Americans feel . . . " The question of how much Taiwan should be closer to China or more independent is the defining difference between the DPP and the KMT. Wiki summarized it well: > [@](#): > > The political scene in the ROC is divided into two camps, with the pro-unification KMT, People First Party (PFP), and New Party forming the Pan-Blue Coalition; and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and strongly pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) forming the Pan-Green Coalition. Because of the dominance of the reunification-independence issue in Taiwan’s political scene, it is difficult to categorise either camp as “right” or “left” on the conventional basis of economic or social policies. People I know who are Blue supporters definitely have a radically different take on the danger of China and also to the degree of annoyance with China’s attempts at to further isolate Taiwan politically than my friends, acquaintances, students and wife who are green. In general, the Blue tend to blame the demonstrators while the Green are in shock about the government’s response. It’s very similar to how Americans like up on views concerning Black Lives Matter. > [@](#): > > Hopefully it’s a wake up call to all the myriad people who have been sleeping under their rocks and not paying attention to what’s been going on. People in which country are you referring to? I argue in good faith and don’t like playing games. Hopefully we can have a discussion concerning the subject matter. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/chinas-secret-2020-plan-for-taiwan-thoughts/854566.md?page=8)