Chronos and Betting

I’d never heard of the word used that way, but OK, thanks.

Can I really be the only one to notice that all of the mods’ avatars are now goateed?

From now on, instead of being sent to the cornfield, socks and spammers will be sent to the Tantalus Field.

When I was a kid, an aunt told me that it was against the law to be in a car without shoes on. It isn’t true, of course, but it was in the back of my mind for years. To argue that someone should be ticketed for being in a car without shoes on because their aunt told them some false rule is idiotic. Why should we go along with idiotic decisions?

Just quietly ban him if you feel he needs to go. New rules aren’t necessary or useful for this.

Oh there is worse moderation. It’s just that at some point you can only laugh at the farcical nature of it.

Late to the party, but add my name to the list of “no fan of UltraVires, but this is an incredibly ridiculous warning” comments.

The warning given to UltraVires has been rescinded.

Please see this thread: New rules and corrections june 27, 2020

Jenny
your humble TubaDiva
Administrator

I’d like to see them sent to the Agony Booth, myself.

Also umpteenthing the ridiculousness of said warning. [edit] See that it has been rescinded, thankfully.

Thank you. Well done. :beers: :beers:

I was mistaken. Thank you for withdrawing the warning.

Good call.

I haven’t been active on this board for the past year or so, but I have fond memories of the informal bets that have been wagered here over the years. I feel this new rule represents a victory for ignorance.

It’s easy to make a prediction, to assert that something will happen. But a bet - or really the setting of odds - focuses the mind and can clarify the underlying issues. I once challenged Bricker by writing, “Gee guy, you seem pretty confident. Will you give me 10:1 odds?” He replied something like, “I’m not 10:1 confident. I’m even money confident”. Seen in that light, our differences were less than they might have first appeared. (By the way, that’s how you handle folks who use betting as a bullying tool. Ask them for 200:1 odds if they are so confident.)

More generally, while I believe truth exists, knowing it is a matter of being less wrong. That implies any reasonable conception of the truth must be probabilistic. And there are few better ways of grasping scientific probabilities than friendly wagers. As an example, I’d point to longbets.org. Wagers there run for many years; winnings go to charity. “Long Bets is about taking personal responsibility for ideas and opinions.”

Admittedly, progress in scientific betting is slow. Robin Hanson: “I think the most interesting question is how little effort we actually put into forecasting [aka probabilistic prediction -mfm], even on the things that are important to us… Even academics aren’t very interested in collecting a track record of forecasts- they’re not very interested in making clear enough forecasts to score… What’s in it for them? The more fundamental problem is that we have a demand for experts in our society but we don’t actually have a demand for accurate forecasts.”

You make some really nice points. And you are correct.

I wish we could.

In real life I have made and won and lost many bets; it’s part of the give and take of contact with other people. The bar bet can be a fun game.

There have been so many negative experiences and fistfights regarding bets, making of bets, collecting of bets, refusal to cover bets, etc. so much that cleaning up behind the wreckage of Bets Gone Bad is more than it’s worth.

Like many rules on the SDMB this has happened because we got pushed into it. And I regret that it has come to be like this.

Jenny
your humble TubaDiva
Administrator

Ill bet that was a difficult decision to make! :drooling_face:

It may actually have been worse than that. I learned a different variant of this in high-school Driver’s Ed: If an underage occupant of a car is caught with his/her girlfriend/boyfriend with shoes off, you can get arrested for statutory rape. The actual rule, as alleged, was that you could be arrested for stat if you are caught without any item of clothing that would normally be worn in the circumstances.

But “I know we are not allowed to bet” very much was - any honest reason you left that first part out of your post?

Not that I care about the betting part of it, I don’t do bets for moral reasons anyway, but that was quite a disingenuous post.

Maybe the bit where you said “I know we are not allowed to bet”?

I guess I should read from top to bottom. Thank you.

I now “withdraw” my earlier statements. :slight_smile:

Please. A bet’s a bet, doesn’t matter how it pays out.

That you (eventually) got away with it doesn’t make Chronos’ stated reasoning any less sound. And I say this as someone who is decidedly not a fan of his.

Well, I’m ready for this to be over. The rule is clear now and again I thank the mods.

Except, as written, it’s clear he felt otherwise. Which is entirely reasonable.